Phillies Prospect Lists

[Austinfan]

I think Medina and Morales are overrated, Medina simply hasn't done much to think of him as a top SP prospect, and until Morales develops some command, well, we've see these high velocity/no command guys by the bushel the last decade.

[allentown]

think Medina and Morales are overrated

Medina certainly took a substantial step back in both BB- and K-rates this season in moving to AA. The move to Reading and the Eastern League can be difficult, although Medina's HR rate was basically unchanged. Medina was only 22 this season, so I don't think we really know how he turns out, utntil we see what he achieves next season. He was shocked this year and presumably he and his instructors know what he needs to work on to succeed at AA and higher levels. This season certainly wasn't a good one for him and I can understand wanting to lower him in the rankings. The argument for not lowering him much is that there isn't much by way of half-way proven talent beneath him.

Morales is a lot about potential. Tall, skinny 19-year old kid at Lakewood. Certainly age appropriate. He threw quite a few more innings this year than in prior seasons. His K-rate improved, while his BB-rate, while not at all good yet, did decline by a full walk/9 innings. I call it a good year for Morales and think his position on the prospect list is fine.

[andyb]

Morales is our second best pitching prospect.

[fish]

Morales is a lot about potential. Tall, skinny 19-year old kid at Lakewood.

He’s got a great frame and keeps getting stronger. He’s probably got the best breaking ball by a righty in the system. Just needs experience and better command. You need multiples of guys like that to find the one that works out, but he’s something.

[Austinfan]

On the other hand, when Seabold got healthy, he had a great run to finish the season at Reading, not an easy park for a RHP. So I wouldn't write him off just yet.

[allentown]

I agree, but don't think anyone is writing off Seabold. He might reasonably rank a bit higher than the #22 Rupert had him at, but I think the health problems and pitching far short of a full season are the cause for that. He certainly did better repeating Reading than he did in 2018, mainly getting the HRs surrendered under control. The K-rate is off a little, but the walk rate is better and fewer HRs has really lowered his ERA.

[andyb]

Seabold is the type of prospect that typically has much more trouble in the majors and in the higher levels of the minors. One can survive on command and changing speeds in Reading and still not be able to get major league hitters out. He is a prospect certainly, but his ceiling may be more of a AAAA starter. He probably got a bit lucky with the home runs in Reading and it will be key for him to keep the ball in the park next year in AAA if he is to succeed there.

The reason someone like Morales ranks much higher is stuff. He simply has the potential to be much better than a back end starter if things come together and his fallback of high leverage reliever is not awful either. While Seabold might have a higher chance of pitching in the majors, he also is unlikely to be someone much better than the guys like Straily that could be pulled off the scrap heap for modest cost each year.

[Austinfan]

The obsession with "stuff" has probably created a market inefficiency, other than a dozen or so top pitchers who have both stuff, secondary pitches and command, most hard throwers don't fare better than guys throwing above the minimum (basically averaging around 91-92 MPH) who have secondary pitches and command, just look at Pivetta and Velasquez.

Now if you don't have minimum velocity, you need top of the line secondary pitches and command - i.e. Geinke (89-90 the last two seasons).

[fish]

Seabold’s stuff and the way his pitches look remind me of Eflin, just 3 mph slower. He just doesn’t project well

[fish]

The obsession with "stuff" has probably created a market inefficiency, other than a dozen or so top pitchers who have both stuff, secondary pitches and command, most hard throwers don't fare better than guys throwing above the minimum (basically averaging around 91-92 MPH) who have secondary pitches and command, just look at Pivetta and Velasquez.

I think it’s generally recognized that Klentak thought he was trying to tap into that inefficiency and outsmart others by going after command/spin college guys.

[bigegypt0417]

The obsession with "stuff" has probably created a market inefficiency, other than a dozen or so top pitchers who have both stuff, secondary pitches and command, most hard throwers don't fare better than guys throwing above the minimum (basically averaging around 91-92 MPH) who have secondary pitches and command, just look at Pivetta and Velasquez.

Now if you don't have minimum velocity, you need top of the line secondary pitches and command - i.e. Geinke (89-90 the last two seasons).

Your philosophy is based on your obsession with identifying AAAA starters to try and sell as prospects to watch. That's why a 19 year old who does lack command but also misses tons of bats is overrated and a mediocre AAAA 22/23 year old is a guy we don't write off.

[bigegypt0417]

The obsession with "stuff" has probably created a market inefficiency, other than a dozen or so top pitchers who have both stuff, secondary pitches and command, most hard throwers don't fare better than guys throwing above the minimum (basically averaging around 91-92 MPH) who have secondary pitches and command, just look at Pivetta and Velasquez.

I think it’s generally recognized that Klentak thought he was trying to tap into that inefficiency and outsmart others by going after command/spin college guys.

Look around the minors in every system...Klentak isn't tapping in to anything unique...they are everywhere and at every level.

[Austinfan]

AAAA pitchers are the ones who lack "minimum velocity," in that case they have to be the unicorn with both exceptional secondary stuff and command. It's been done, but it's rare.

But once a pitcher averages 92 MPH or so, additional velocity (until you get to the upper 90s) has little marginal value compared to movement, secondary pitches and command - ML hitters can crush 94-97 FBs without good movement in the sweet zone.

Conversely in hitters, a key skill is being able to pick up the spin on the ball, recognize and avoid chasing low sliders and curves. Because few minor league pitchers can throw consistent off speed stuff, a lot of hitters can work their way up the ladder feasting on FBs.

[bigegypt0417]

I don't understand why you keep explaining this over and over when it's you that has a bias towards your self described unicorns.

Unless your point is that with those with velocity, they need to have command and secondary pitches to be successful? I feel like that's too obvious to be the point you're making.

Morales is 19 and is being rated that high on the fact he's got a high ceiling set of tools...he is also a low floor.

The AAAA pitchers you follow have low ceilings and floors that are AAAA type of pitchers.

I'll take the toolkit of Morales.

[allentown]

I agree this is sort of true, but are Seabold and Eickhoff really able to average 92 mph? Certainly many hitters at all levels have more clean swings and misses at breaking balls and changeups than at 94-95 mph fastballs. Other hitters have trouble with a plus FB, especially one with movement to go along with velocity.

[Austinfan]

You're seeing few ML hitters who struggle with a FB under 95, because they've been weeded out the last decade, other than backup catchers and utility IFs.

What you see a lot are hitters like Hernandez, who are death on FBs but struggle with off speed stuff, I think Kapler's biggest mistake was not batting Hernandez 1st or 2nd where he's more patient and sees more FBs than down in the lineup where he tends to get power happy and chases more pitches.

[andyb]

That still does not mean a 95 mph fastball is not better than a 92 mph fastball. It is. Hitters do less well against them than the slower fastballs. You just keep making this simplistic argument that velocity does not matter much when it does. Is it the only factor? No. Of course not. Good pitchers need multiple pitches and command. There are many ways to succeed. A K rate and BB rate are also very important. Pitchers with low K rates tend to have lower ceilings and lesser records of consistent success. It is what limits Eflin to being a back end starter for the most part (though back end starters that eat innings can be very valuable so should not be dismissed).

Both Howard and Morales are our top 2 pitching prospects in large part because they throw hard. Medina is slipping in the rankings because his velocity is off a bit from the two previous seasons. All those pitchers (Howard included) have miles to go with their offspeed pitches and command. If Howard sat in the 92-94 range he would not be considered a top prospect. Sitting in the mid-90s makes his offspeed stuff better also. Personally I'd rather have one Howard than five pitchers like Seabold (which in no way means we should not try to find 5 undervalued Seabolds).

[mdougherty12]

538.com on player development, the Phillies recent changes in the developmental system get mentioned:

Do We Even Need Minor League Baseball?

[andyb]

That chart comparing the handful of prospects that go straight from AA to the majors with prospects that play in AAA is pretty disengenous. Of course the handful of prospects good enough to make that jump are better than the 1-step at a time guys. And it is not like every club in baseball does not try to identify them also. They just don't have more than 1 or 2 of them.

While there are valid points in there about development and advanced analytics, this article also is an example of analytics people sometimes being misguided with their models. One can apply the analytics and new methods while still using what looks like a traditional minor league ladder. I also don't think the 9 versus 7 affiliates means too much as it is correct that the extra 50 prospect one signs to stock those teams are mostly prospect filler. Of course that is true because teams have the same draft pick systems and international limits. Everyone beyond that has little chance of success, though I would argue the marginal few millions of dollars spent developing those players might be better spent there than anywhere else. Houston has less money than the Phillies so it might be the natural decision for them to have fewer affiliates while it is equally correct for the Phillies to spend the extra money.

Articles like this assume organizations can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Baseball is unique in that prospects generally need years of seasoning and there is little in this article that disputes that other than giving advanced analytics instruction to maybe speed up the development of the best prospects and that will happen anyway.

[Austinfan]

If you have the money, that extra GCL affiliate has real value by allowing you to audition 20 or so additional players each year. You don't have to find the next Altuve, just finding a free agent college senior who becomes a solid back of the bullpen RP for a few years generating 2-3 WAR would be worth $10-15M v signing decent free agent RPs to fill that role for 3 years.

So you only need to find a low level player every couple years to pay off the expense, and it doesn't count against the cap.
And if you get lucky and hit the jackpot once a decade as well . . .