Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

This list from the Good Phight seems better than the BA and MLB updated lists (to me anyway).

Phillies Midseason Top 10 Prospects

BTW I think the only minor league "top tool" we got from BA was Rafael Marchan as the best defensive catcher in the SAL.

[Austinfan]

Guys who are worthy of following the next year or two who could make huge jumps:

Curtis Mead, IF, 18, 6'2 171, Australian, good BB/K ratio, .765 OPS
Victor Vargas, P 18, 6'1 175, $525K bonus, not overpowering but great start in the GCL
Carlos Betancourt, P, 18, 6'1 160, $500K projects to have a plus FB, good breaking ball
Gabriel Yanez, P, 19, 6'3 168, big jump from last year in GCL, hmm, when he fills out . . .
Andrick Nava, C, 17, 5'11 175, $400K, .343 BA, 11%K rate, needs to add strength
Rixon Wingrove, 1B, 19, 6'5 260, Australian, huge improvement across the board in 2nd GCL season, .993 OPS
Johan Rojas, CF, 18, 6'1 165, .920 OPS in GCL, struggling in Williamsport
Eduar Segovia P, 18, 6'0 180, don't know what he's throwing, but it's working
Brandon Ramey P, 18, 6'3 170, 30th pick out of HS is off to a great start
Juan Aparicio, C, 19, 5'11 175, 1.120 OPS at Williamsport, now at Lakewood, called best pure hitter in the system
Logan O'Hoppe C, 19, 6'2 185, .943 OPS in GCL last year, .811 in Williamsport this year
Kendall Simmons, SS, 19, 6'2 180, slow start but red hot, .387 BA, 6 HRs last 10 games
Junior Tejada, P, 22, 6'1 170, LHP, older, but they must see something since he's starting at Williamsport
Ethan Lindlow, P, 20, 6'3 180, LHP, great season at Lakewood, needs to add some velo, but has room to fill out
Victor Santos, P, 19, 6'2 220, not overpowering, but great control and holding his own in Lakewood
Manuel Silva, P, 20, 6'2 145, skinny LHP, low 90s, has room to fill out
Kyle Glogoski, P, 20, 6'2 183, New Zealand LHP, great #s at Lakewood, Clearwater, needs velo but given his background, his performance is eye opening.

I was surprised how many kids were playing well, who weren't highly touted but had good credentials.
It's a crap shoot, you miss on Holmes but maybe Simmons is the diamond in the rough.

[julio]

Geez. With a list that long, it's highly likely that somebody will have a big season next year!

[andyb]

Kind of why you want to add 10-20 young and toolsy prospects every year. Some of them will succeed. And generally the guys you sign for $200K because they have some tools are the ones to watch.

Out of that list if I had to pick a few guys that could be top 30 by next year (some are already) the most likely candidates are: Vargas, Betancourt, Nava, Rojas, Aparicio, O'Hoppe, Simmons, and Glogoski. Mead and Lindow right after that.

[bigegypt0417]

Matt Winklemans mid season top 30...

2019 Phillies Midseason Top 30

[allentown]

I'm not especially high on Gowdy, but Winkelman's take is far more pessimistic than I've seen prior to this. Ouch!

[andyb]

Gowdy throwing 88 today with little command is just not the guy we drafted any more unfortunately. Is there any more recovery in the second year of throwing after surgery? Still possible I guess but I am not holding out too much hope.

More good notes on Johan Rojas. Comment makes me think scouts are saying the tools are legit and it is not just the GCL performance. The system is overdue for a low dollar international player to breakout. Not many high ceiling breakouts of lower bonus players since Medina really.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Well, that’s how you make sure you are right!

[Austinfan]

Well, we need a little luck, hopefully Ben Brown's recovery from TJ will be better than Gowdy.

Klentak signed a bunch of FA college pitchers, looks like he wants to stockpile potential bullpen arms.

To me, the value in the draft after the first couple rounds is RPs and "junk ball" starters, there are lots of seniors who throw 90-92 and lack a third pitch but jump in velocity in short stints and have one solid secondary pitch - they're low value as potential starters but good gambles as RPs.

Junk ball starters are underrated b/c of the obsession with velocity, as we've seen with Velasquez, Pivetta and Eflin, averaging 94-95 MPH doesn't make you a ML starting pitcher - Eickhoff until he was injured had a better career than all three. We're seeing Vargas somehow survive throwing 86-88, and Smyly revive simply by getting to 90-92.

You need a couple top starters, but top starting prospects are rare and costly (Nola #7), we may have hit pay dirt with Howard. When FA starters cost $25-30M a year, you need to fill out your rotation with cheap inning eaters.If you can pick up a few in rounds 13-25, that's great value even if they only garner 1-2 WAR a year - that's still better than your 4th/5th starters with negative WAR. Safety in numbers.

The salary cap means you have to hit both on top picks/LA signings, but also build cheap depth through the organization, so when you have a rash of injuries, you have options, and when you're squeezed by the cap, you can fill out a roster with more than waiver wire scrubs.

[allentown]

Every team needs at least one good-command junk ball starter. The hitters have a lot of trouble with junk, compared to FB. I'd love to have a knuckleball SP. The junk guys set up the guys with more velocity, making them seem even faster, at least at the start of their appearance. Few of these guys are going to be better than #4/5 SP, but sometimes you get lucky. You are correct that FB are so highly values that once you get past the first few rounds, a collegiate SP with a plus FB must have a definite deficiency to slip below round 3 -- generally poor control/command and missing a third pitch.

[Squire]

If Bryson Stott doesn't make tomorrow's BA Hot List...I may cancel my subscription

[phillychuck]

11/24, 6 BBs, 2 2Bs, 3 HRs, over the last 7 days.

That's 458/567/667 for a cool 1234 OPS.

Move 'im up. Reading has some playoff games coming...

[teabag259]

It is good to see Stott re adjust after a slow stretch. I wouldn’t mind see him get some experience in Clearwater before the season ends.

[bigegypt0417]

5

You can keep your subscription.

[schooldoc]

At most, Stott could get a few at-bats in Lakewood over the last 2-3 weeks of the season but I'd be surprised if the Phils even do that with him. They do have Guzman and Garcia in the middle infield at Lakewood and several other guys behind them (Stovall, Stobbe and others) who can fill in behind them.

As far as Reading goes, Nick Maton was just promoted there to add to the middle infield. He's had a solid year at Clearwater and deserved the gig, in my opinion.

[Austinfan]

Stott will probably do the Bohm route, start at Lakewood, earn a promotion to Clearwater, and then to Reading, and get to Philly in the summer of 2021 or spring 2022.

[andyb]

Here Are Some Recent Prospect Movers

Johan Rojas among the movers from Fangraphs. They now rate him 40+ or 14th in the organization.

[nycphils]

Keith Law on Howard, Moniak and Bohm:

Howard:

-93-96 mph all night
- curve is worst pitch, not enough spin
- no sliders all night
- above avg change up, 80-83 mph

“Mickey Moniak has had a superficially good summer, although I think Wednesday night was indicative of why it's not the breakout the Phillies might want it to be. Moniak homered off Wells, but it was a badly hanging 72 mph curveball, and he hit it into short right field where Reading's park is particularly easy to hit the ball out. He also "singled" on a hard ground ball clanked by Bowie first baseman Ryan Ripken.... Right-hander Jay Flaa then struck him out on three straight changeups out of the zone.”

• Alec Bohm... “I'm still a fan.”

[fish]

Mitch Rupert’s top 30

Mitch Rupert on Twitter

I agree with much of the top of the list. I’ve got fatigue on De Los Santos- I’d drop him to the mid teens.

I like Victor Vargas stuff more than Victors Santos pitchability.

I’d drop Seabold and replace him with Eastman.

Dohy and Zack Warren may not have had great years but I think they are far more likely to be impactful major leaguers than most of the last 15 guys on the list.

Also, Rixon Wingrove may check every box for prospect red flags, but the kid hit like not many teenage Phils prospects have. I’d give him a spot. Of course, by that logic Edgar Made would have to be included too- which I would if there was any information that he’s grown far beyond the 145 pound size he’s listed at.

I think I’m ready to give up on the idea that Kyle young’s body is going to hold up and develop further to gain stuff.

[andyb]

Also, Rixon Wingrove may check every box for prospect red flags, but the kid hit like not many teenage Phils prospects have. I’d give him a spot. Of course, by that logic Edgar Made would have to be included too- which I would if there was any information that he’s grown far beyond the 145 pound size he’s listed at.

Wingrove may not have any defensive value at his size and that is probably enough of an issue to not make him top 30 at this point. My favorite young Aussie who I would rank ahead of Wingrove (not sure top 30 either though) is Curtis Mead. A year younger and enough defense to at least fake middle infield at the moment. 813 OPS and enough size where he could grow into legit 3B power.