Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[Austinfan]

It's a mistake to pay big money to a SS or CF based on their fielding at the same level in their 30s.

While batters can adjust to some extent (though I have my doubts about Turner), fielders can't overcome loss of range as they age. So if their bat doesn't play at a less valuable position, don't pay.

[andyb]

It's a mistake to pay big money to a SS or CF based on their fielding at the same level in their 30s.

You just hate all long term contracts. Nobody expects fielding for a SS or CF (other than maybe the Ozzie Smith category) to remain at a peak or a plus level. What SS and CF long term contracts do, however, is generally give you an athletic player that ages very well. I think Turner can be an average fielder at lesser positions into his late 30s certainly. A less athletic player will be a 1B or DH pretty quickly.

Long contracts for up the middle defensive players probably age better than long contracts elsewhere.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Phillies expect Turner to be worth his contract in the last 2-3 years. That's just the price of doing business. He'll still be good enough in LF or at 2B or 3B for awhile, just not as good as some of the 29 or 30 year-olds who would be available in free agency if that money wasn't spent.

And while we can hope Miller and Crawford are the answers at SS and CF, the Phillies still don't have any corner OF or 3B type bats close to stepping up. Hopefully Stott still has a much higher ceiling and Marsh does well enough at the plate (including against LHB) to where he could go back to LF or replace Casty, but they'll still need another OF bat if Turner doesn't go there (assuming Crawford or Rojas in CF).

[Philsmania]

Getting back to Walker yesterday, two ways to look at his rough outing.

On the one hand, yesterday was just one game, so don't worry.

On the other hand, the last week of ST is when you start facing actual ML lineups from top to bottom, so worry.

[zambonir]

Which pitchers (or hitters) should we worry about today? (I'm not watching but Braves are up 7-0).

Like you say, just one game. Because of how Walker pitched last year obviously it's a bigger red flag. But it could happen to anyone. Nola had a 6.75 ST ERA in 2023 (granted, he wasn't so great for a much of the regular season either but nothing like that). Wheeler had an 8.31 ERA after one regular season start that same year.

Ideally Ranger is still in the mix

[andyb]

On the other hand, the last week of ST is when you start facing actual ML lineups from top to bottom, so worry.

Well, Walker was facing largely the Yankees "B" team yesterday so I guess that makes it OK.

[Philsmania]

Looking at today's boxscore, it looks like the Phillies went with the Pigs' pitchers today and only about half the actual Phillies.

[phillychuck]

Jinxed Tyler pretty good...

[zambonir]

Yeah but I wondered if having Crismatt start, even in a shorter outing, meant they want him to be a starter in Allentown for a while given the changing depth picture if Ranger's out. If so Tyler's spot might still be safe as the last reliever, especially if there are multiple IL guys (Strahm still being the other question).

On merit Crismatt is the guy who has won the bullpen job but he's also the guy not on the 40, and he seemed patient/philosophical about when his chance might actually come.

[bkeich]

Looks like Rojas played some CF at least.

[andyb]

Strahm hopefully has dodged the bullet. Supposedly throwing without pain now and hoping to be ready for the start of the season.

Matt Strahm (shoulder) will pitch in a minor-league game Saturday morning. If all goes well, he'd pitch Monday in the Grapefruit League finale, then be active for Opening Day next week.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) March 21, 2025 at 4:01 PM

[zambonir]

For all the concern about Ranger Phillies don't even need a fifth starter the first week of the season, and will also be able to rest the pen (and irritate Wheeler).

March 27 - Wheeler
28 off-day
29 Luzardo
30 Nola
31 Sanchez
April 1 off-day
2 Wheeler (on five days rest when he prefers four)
3 Luzardo
4 Nola
5 Sanchez
6 Suarez
And then they are off on the 7th too so Wheeler gets five again.

[andyb]

Lots of little things in here. I think Ranger's status is still TBD. Kepler is hitting the ball really hard. And Ethan Wilson among a number of minor league releases in the last day.

What I’m seeing at Phillies spring training with less than a week until Opening...

[phillychuck]

Sorry they gave up on Wilson, but he did little to keep them hoping. I thought he was a good draft pick.

[zambonir]

Phillies 2025 Minor League Spring Training

Prior to today’s game, the Phillies optioned OF Cal Stevenson and RHP Kyle Tyler to Lehigh Valley (AAA). Additionally, the following players were reassigned to minor league camp: INF Christian Arroyo, C Josh Breaux, RHP Nabil Crismatt and OF Oscar Mercado.
https://bsky.app/profile/notphillies.bsky.social/post/3lkxunpeltn2e

So this would appear to mean that both Tyler Phillips and Walker have made the team, barring an outside pick-up or trade. Unless I'm forgetting another pitcher. It might still mean Ranger is going on the IL and Phillips will get DFA'ed if he doesn't. Given the schedule they could also just stash Ranger on the IL and skip his first start, while carrying two long men.

And also down to Kennedy vs. Clemens (as it originally was) for last bench spot.

[julio]

By my count, we still have 15 pitchers in the major-league camp.

Alvarado, Jose
Banks, Tanner
Kerkering, Orion
Luzardo, Jesus
Mercado, Michael
Nola, Aaron
Phillips, Tyler
Romano, Jordan
Ross, Joe
Ruiz, Jose
Sanchez, Cristopher
Strahm, Matt
Suárez, Ranger
Walker, Taijuan
Wheeler, Zack

Suarez is questionable, due to his back. Anybody else headed for the IL?

Also, 15 non-pitchers. Weston Wilson will open on the IL (oblique strain). So yeah, it looks like it's between Kennedy and Clemens for the last spot.

[julio]

Gelb's post on Bluesky this morning says both Mercado and Phillips have been kept in camp, pending a determination about Suarez' health - and that if Suarez is IL'ed, Walker would go into the rotation, and "one of them" would be the long man. Implies that one of them is not going to make the 26-man roster, and if Suarez opens on the roster, neither of them will stick.

Phillies made some cuts this morning. The last bench job is down to Kody Clemens and Buddy Kennedy. The club has kept Tyler Phillips and Michael Mercado in camp in case Ranger Suárez isn’t ready; Taijuan Walker would slide into rotation and one of them would be long man.

https://bsky.app/profile/mattgelb.bsky.social/post/3lkxtsa3crs2z

[zambonir]

Ah. Mercado is who I forgot. But unlike Phillips he has options. Strahm no longer appears to be going on the IL. But if Suarez does go on IL it makes sense to keep Phillips off the waiver wire for a little longer. Mercado is better suited as a pure reliever (I believe that is still their long-term preference for him).

I guess even with backdating (to tomorrow I believe) they need the #5 pitcher to make at least one start. Two if they don't want to skip it. But they could also not put Ranger on the IL if he doesn't have to go until April 6.

But yes, Walker is safe and if Ranger doesn't go on the IL Mercado gets optioned and Phillips is either DFA traded or goes to LV (I assume he can't refuse).

[phillychuck]

It's a bad sign if Phillips is on the roster. Lots of guys are more or less freely available who are better.

[zambonir]

Clearly the Phillies value that fungible 7th-8th starter AAA depth a lot more than a 7th or 8th reliever, at least this early in the season. More than us, anyway. Remember, they were trying to preserve his option last year but then he struggled so much that they couldn't justify it. But that was when the 5th starter spots was a mess. Hiding him in the pen for 10 days instead of giving a spot to Crismatt - the clear winner of the job on merit - and then losing him on waivers, is just business, and he's still probably not worse than the other Tyler (last name not first).

It's not much different than last year when they opened the season with Brogdon only because he was out of options, followed by Pinto. Phillips certainly can't be any worse!