Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[zambonir]

I think Suarez was unlikely to get an extension anyway. They locked up Sanchez (to say nothing of Nola and Wheeler), they traded for Luzardo, they have Painter, they're still paying Walker.

In the meantime we'll see what happens, right now they are saying he might not go on the IL but they also say his velocity has been down all ST. Let's hope he's good enough to get the QO regardless of role;you never know what happens with those (see Nick Pivetta).

Turnbull set an unusually high bar. Bailey Falter set a really low one. If in fact Walker starts the year in the rotation hopefully he's somewhere in between (if not as good as 2023 Walker). Before today he was pitching decently, or we wouldn't have been talking about six-man rotations or moving Ranger to the pen.

[phillychuck]

People you haven't thought about this spring but might be sneaky good. Also having good ST results:

John McMillon - waiver pick-up from the Marlins who was a very solid reliever in the high minors and has had some success in the big leagues, too. Only 27. Better than many o the guys we've had in AAA recently. Throws gas (96-100 mph FB) and a gyro slider.

Kyle Tyler - waiver pick-up, again from the Marlins. Sinker (92) slider/curve pitcher who has primarily been a starter. Not a high-K pitcher, Has been wild, but has had stretches of impressive success in the minors. An Angels draftee.

Carson Taylor -- minor league rule 5 pickup from the Dodgers last off-season. Had a nice year for Reading. Great college C/1B for VaTech. Line-drive hitter who has worked hard over the last two years to try to get more balls in the air. On the Oliver Dunn track.

I left off guys I think we all know...

[zambonir]

McMillon was on the 40 when they got him but didn't stay there long. I'm sure we'll see him eventually. The exact kind of bullpen arm this Phillies regime likes.

I believe Tyler actually is on the 40 and they want him to keep starting rather than giving him the last (or 7th) reliever spot. He was no more or less marginal than the other guys last year (Allard, Phillips) but if Ranger goes on the IL and Walker flops he'd probably be next.

[Austinfan]

Watching Walker, he got knocked around but he was actually pretty encouraging.
4 seamer 93-94, 2 seamer 92-93.
Split 85-87, cutter 87-88 with good movement.
Nice curve at 76, though lost a couple, sweeper at 80.

The split is a little fast right now, not enough separation from the FB to be a really effective change. But good fade.

Problem today was location, 3 FBs down the middle thigh high ended up in the stands.
Lost a little velocity after 50 pitches, but that's to be expected at this point of ST.

Wouldn't pitch until April 6, so probably get him one more ST start then work with him to refine his secondary pitches.
Needs to improve his command, but he has the arsenal and his velocity back.
We're just asking for a competent 5th starter, that's not a high bar.

[andyb]

If Suarez is a restricted free agent this winter, if the Phillies offer the QO, you can bet dollars to donuts he takes it.

Ranger will be a free agent. I'd be fine going year to year with him if he duplicates last year (150 good innings). Ranger keeps the ball in the park and does not rely on stuff - so he might actually age pretty well. He was probably never going to get more than a Zach Eflin type free agent contract anyway because of durability concerns.

If everybody is healthy and Painter and Luzardo are both good he probably leaves because he'll want the chance to start somewhere. The season rarely goes as planned though, so no reason to really speculate too much now.

[Matt_Winkelman]

McMillon has been 94-96 T97 since the first electric appearance

[phillychuck]

Matt, do you think he might find another mph or two as he conditions toward the season? The 96-100 number was from a pro scouting website. Did he touch 100 mph earlier this spring?

[zambonir]

The Athletic uploaded the Phillies' Zellus lawsuit, not sure if it would also be paywalled. The story notes how Andy Galdi (former Google guy who helped start the Phillies analytics dept) went to work there and has also hired away several other Phillies people, but that's not part of the lawsuit.

Things sure have changed:

In last year’s media guide, the Phillies listed 31 members in their R&D department — not including [Assistant GM] Kilambi. This year, they reorganized the analytics arms to reflect a growing presence. They list 41 employees over three departments — foundational research and applied biomechanics, predictive modeling, and software engineering. Employees from other departments could fall under the R&D umbrella as well.

THE-PHILLIES-v.-ZELUS-ANALYTICS-INC..pdf

The Phillies paid an analytics company millions. Now they’re suing it over ‘loss...

[zambonir]

He was the early talk of spring training having done so!

I wanted to shoot out a tweet about this earlier, but feared that it might be a bit too baseball-sicko of me.

John McMillon was gross today. Topped out at 100.2 mph on his fastball, and flashed a nasty slider. Will be an interesting arm to keep an eye on going forward. https://t.co/FPpyKlWSXt

— Alex Carr ( @AlexCarrMLB ) February 24, 2025

[andyb]

It is probably not uncommon for a pitcher like McMillon to go all out in his training to turn some heads early in camp. Then hit a bit of a dead arm period.

McMillon was pretty good in limited time in the majors last year but pretty bad in the minors (6.32 ERA, 7.8 BB/9). Only 130 minor league innings in his career and he is now 27 years old. Just sounds like somebody who has had trouble throwing strikes (and probably staying healthy) his entire career. I think he never had much of a chance to make the team out of Spring Training simply because it would be good for him to get 30 more innings in AAA regardless.

[zambonir]

All kinds of news today.

The Phillies say they are going to give Brandon Marsh runway early this season as the everyday center fielder, starting him against left-handed pitching.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/brandon-marsh-to-be-phillies-everyday-center-fielder-in-2025

And, no surprise

Phillies option Garrett Stubbs to Triple-A; Rafael Marchán wins backup catching...

[Austinfan]

I think they're playing with fire with Marsh in CF, Casty in RF, and Turner at SS.
Nice fluff piece about Turner working on his fielding, but I'll believe he's an average SS these days when he does it on the field. He has the tools, but blows too many routine plays.
We know Casty is awful, and Marsh just doesn't have CF range, at least Kepler shouild be above average in LF.

Problem comes when defense starts extending innings and wearing down the bullpen.

[zambonir]

If they all hit, it's fine. If Marsh can't keep it going against lefties, there's Rojas. If Casty bottoms out they will have to go get someone at the deadline, Rojas or Crawford still won't be the answer for the offense.

I'd be more worried about Turner's future, period. He was 3.9 FG WAR and 124 WRC+ last year and 4.2 WAR and 108 WRC+ in 2023. Lower WAR last year was due to fewer games played I assume, but is he really going to be a good enough hitter for LF (or a good enough defensive 3B) by 2027?

[kmc1019]

I don't disagree with you on Turner, but there is the reality of a long-term, likely untradeable contract for a player who arguably already has aged out of playing shortstop. I would venture that Turner at 2B or left field is a likely reality in the next 2 years.

[zambonir]

Oh for sure, it is what it is. But for now there's no one else on the current Phillies roster who should be the everyday SS. Even Stott is not seen as being above average there. Which also raises the question of how you actually move Turner to 2B before 2028.

The Schwarber situation still strikes me as the big pivot point. He'd be a huge loss but signing someone like Tucker to play the OF instead would also open up DH to rotate some of these older players for a few seasons, Turner and Harper and JT (assuming he's re-signed) included (as well as Casty for one year).

And Marsh is still a more than competent CF. Neutral there I believe, versus plus in LF. Rojas is still plus in CF but not so much to outweigh the offense. The idea that you could carry his bat was based on the semi-fantasy that he was Gold Glove caliber (dues to his insane defensive runs saved in his first season), as well as the feeling that the Phillies offense was so good that you could give away outs at the 9 spot. And they could, but not so much in the second half last year.

[andyb]

I would venture that Turner at 2B or left field is a likely reality in the next 2 years.

That could be a gold glove defensive player at those positions though. Or at least like Bryce being above average at an easier position. Turner with his athleticism should still age relatively well assuming he stays healthy. And long contracts are just the cost of doing business for a wealthy team.

[zambonir]

What about CF? Could you squeeze a couple of years out of his legs there?

[andyb]

What about CF? Could you squeeze a couple of years out of his legs there?

Definitely like Robin Yount. Where Turner would go would depend in part on whether we have better CFs. Turner might have an average SS arm but it could be a bit below average in the OF (which might push him to LF).

Some of this will depend on who else develops in our system (i.e. Miller and/or Crawford and even Escobar) and also whether we spend money on other OFs like Kyle Tucker. I doubt we extend Bohm beyond free agency also and we really don't know if Stott will get better and be kept longer too.

[phillychuck]

Nice fluff piece about Turner working on his fielding, but I'll believe he's an average SS these days when he does it on the field. He has the tools, but blows too many routine plays.

Statistically by UZR and runs saved he already is an average SS, and has been since his Nationals days. He's just not special there.

[zambonir]

On the one hand the Phillies really seemed to overrate and overvalue Turner in expecting both his elite offensive production and above-average SS play. On the other, Correa has not been healthy, Bogaerts already moved to 2B and Swanson's not a top-line bat, so they didn't necessarily choose wrong. Unless, of course, they'd chosen to leave Stott at SS. Then they could have spent the Turner money on a LF or 1B (including Hoskins) and filled 2B more modestly. But we'd probably still be talking about someone else's albatross of a contract (or watching Rhys's decline), and we still wouldn't actually have an elite SS (plus of course they moved Bryce to 1B).