Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[zambonir]

He tended to get bombed early and then settle down as a starter, even when he was good in '22, which is why he wasn't considered for the pen in the post-season once Sanchez beat him out for the 4th spot (which was all of one start and 2 1/3 innings). They really avoided trying to use him in the pen last year too though that was really about the whole picture. He made all of four appearances, all in September, allowing two runs in three innings, two runs in two innings and no runs in three innings. That last one earned him another start which was godawful (8 runs in 3.1 innings so they didn't have to use another arm too quickly) and his last relief outing was no good either.

The Phillies actually won the game in which he gave up 2 runs in three. They were already trailing 6-1 after one inning, he entered in the third inning and pitched two scoreless before allowing the two runs in the fifth. Phils won 10-9. They also won the game in which he didn't allow a run. In the other one Phillies were trailing 6-3 (in a Nola start), Walker pitched a scoreless 7th and then allowed two runs in the 8th to make it 9-3, and Phillies got a couple of more runs in the 9th to lose 9-5.

So, very small sample it seems that if he's preparing as a reliever, his first inning isn't a problem. And he didn't cost them any games they were likely to win though he certainly lowered the WP further in both of them. But most mop-up guys probably only "keep it from getting worse" half the time.

[andyb]

Walker is definitely helped by the fact that the Phillies did not bring in much competition for him. The first 7 bullpen spots seem set absent injury:

LH: Alvarado, Strahm, Banks
RH: Romano, Kerkering, Ross, Ruiz

That leaves Walker competing with Lazar, Phillips, Mercado, Rangel and a cast of unknowns (Vespi, Sweet, McMillon) for the last spot. Lazar has options and probably does need more AAA time. Rangel is intriguing but more as a starter (like Phillips). McMillon throws 100 but not necessarily in the strike zone and has options. The NRI pitchers without options are not good enough to throw away an arm like Walker now.

So there is really no option other than to give Walker the last spot and see how it goes. There is more need for long relief in April as well. Once we get to May is when the Phillies really need to decide if Walker helps or hurts.

[zambonir]

If that's how it goes, it will still mean the Phillies have been very fortunate. Last year they broke spring training with one injured starter (Walker himself) and 2 injured relievers, as well as the injuries to Covey and Rucker that took them off the table pretty much all season.

Ortiz was originally on the Opening Day roster along with Brogdon (who quickly gave way to Pinto) and then Nick Nelson replaced him. Yunior Marte was the 6th reliever.

[Jazzhead]

One question that I don't know whether has been asked and answered in public is whether Walker understands that his most likely role is in relief and whether he is mentally comfortable with that. Walker's lack of experience out of the pen is what makes me favor Ranger revisiting his prior role and Walker placed in the rotation.

Of course, these things have a way of sorting themselves out. The Phils have indeed been fortunate that their starters have mostly remained healthy for going on two years now.

[zambonir]

I think Walker undertstands he is guaranteed nothing (except his paycheck). In 2022 he had a right to be annoyed that he lost his rotation spot to Sanchez in the post-season (albeit on merit) and there was apparently poor communication about the fact that they didn't plan to use him even in mop-up (that was Lorenzen's job; Walker was presumably injury insurance just like now). You didn't hear hime complaining about being in the bullpen last year. And I think everything is pretty clear now.

But you still don't replace the guy who was a Cy Young candidate in the first half of the season last year with the guy who was the worst pitcher in all of MLB last year just based on spring training. Nor do you punish that superior pitcher for being more adaptable. Ranger also hasn't pitched regularly out of the pen in four seasons - the fact that he's done it in the post-season on a very limited basis still doesn't mean he'd be ready for the role regularly, or that toggling would be any better for his durability.

[andyb]

I think the simple fact that Ranger is better than Walker (assuming that holds with performance) will make the decision to keep Ranger in the rotation easy.

The larger question is Painter if everyone is healthy and there is not an obvious weak link in the rotation. But that is a nice problem to have. And Walker will be happy to make $18 million to pitch out of the bullpen if that is what it takes. This team DID become too 1-inning reliever heavy in recent years with its emphasis on big stuff. So there is a role for Walker if he can perform well.

[Austinfan]

Ranger had his off speed stuff cooking, but was throwing mostly 89-90, touched 92 a couple times.
Don't know if he was holding back this early.

Romano was sharp, 97, and his slider was wicked at 87.

Escobar made a great play at 2B to start a DP which Miller finished, then turned on an inside FB for a lazer down the line for a HR. Against a minor league pitcher, but he sure looked like he belonged.

Alvarado actually threw a couple curves at 85 to go with his low 90s cutter and upper 90s FB. If he can do that on a regular basis, . . .

[zambonir]

Strahm has sore shoulder; injuries mounting in NL East

[el-pietro]

Is there any chance they find a trade partner, for either Walker or Ranger? The Yankees just list Gerrit Colr for presumably the season

[Austinfan]

Maybe for a veteran LH RP?

[zambonir]

Another part of the process to play out for sure. Still a few free agents who would be easier/cheaper for teams to sign than giving up anything (money or players) for Walker. And trading Ranger before you've seen Walker win five starts (if not until Painter is ready) seems foolhardy even if history says you can make the playoffs (or win the East) without a good fifth starter.

Hopefully Strahm is fine, seems worrisome given he already looked off in October. But for now all it means if he actually does go on the IL is that a spot is definitely open for Walker (along with Lazar or someone TBD). Banks would have to step but they like Kerkering against LHBs and have Alvarado too.

[andyb]

If Strahm is hurt it probably creates an opening for Vespi as an extra left-hander. Lazar just has not pitched that well.

40-man spots are unlikely to be an issue as we have a couple of out-of-options players like Clemens and Kennedy who may not make the team. Phillips is also out of options I believe though again he is not suited for the bullpen and has not been pitching well.

[phillychuck]

I'm not a huge fan of the Vespi-type of pitcher--low K%, high contact pitcher who has been somewhat HR prone in the past. Maybe the slider and curve have gotten better... According to fangraphs his slider is good, his cutter is average, and his curve is below average. Maybe our coaches have worked with him to change one of those pitches...

As a long-time fan who follows pitching injuries, shoulder pain doesn't often just go away with rest, and shoulder injuries are long-recovery things and often career altering.

Picking up a Strahm-type reliever (who probably won't be as effective as Strahm, of course) shouldn't be impossible for DD. If you could do it for Walker and dump some of his salary it seems like a sensible move.

[Austinfan]

With 3 LH SPs, and Walker #6 and Painter #7, don't need a Strahm type RP, that is, a swing pitcher who can start or go multiple innings. Just a 6th/7th inning pitcher, never liked Strahm in the late innings anyway. A better version of Banks.will do.

This is where you load up Lehigh with veterans on option contracts (release by June 1 or so) and hope one hits.

I've already written Strahm off, when shoulder injuries start requiring weeks, it often turns into months, the season, etc.
It's not just if he can pitch, but if he can be effective. We saw that with Walker last season, pitching at 80% is the difference between being effective and being below replacement level for many pitchers.

[zambonir]

RHP was actually the perceived weakness of the pen, with Ross being viewed more as long man than replacement for Hoffman (if you view Romano as replacing Estevez).

I don't think there is much urgency now even if he hits the IL, but makes it that much more likely the pen will have to be upgraded in July (but it always is, only the names of the hurt or off-year guys change)

Sad/funny that Strahm in particular was bristling at the idea that players over 32 are in decline in today's Stark Athletic story

[phillychuck]

The announcers and Topper both said Ross looked really good yesterday, but to me he looked like batting practice. How do you guys think Ross fits in, and has he looked good to you in ST?

[fish]

The announcers and Topper both said Ross looked really good yesterday, but to me he looked like batting practice. How do you guys think Ross fits in, and has he looked good to you in ST?

Agreed, he's been short about 2 mph on both his sinker and 4 seamer. Hopefully just ramping up but that will get killed in-season.

[kmc1019]

Fun if disappointing spring training line for Mick Abel who is credited with the win despite pitching to a 16.20 ERA himself, as the Phillies shellacked the Red Sox early and often.

[bkeich]

Have you like an efficient 18 runs on only 13 hits​

[BostonRoss]

Have you like an efficient 18 runs on only 13 hits​

16 walks helped!