Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[Matt_Winkelman]

If we use fWAR, Suarez was worth 3.5 WAR in 2024. IF Walker was 2023 Walker that is still a 1.1 fWAR gap, essentially a Carlos Estevez size gap. So to move Ranger to the bullpen, you are counting on a full rebound from Walker and Suarez to be a high end reliever for a full year, as opposed to just taking the starting pitcher who has been a really good starting pitcher and letting him just be a starting pitcher. You are also assuming that a year of ramping up to high intensity will be less strenuous on Ranger's body.

[andyb]

Right now they have the depth to not make any difficult decisions. Painter is still only a July possibility and Walker has not shown anything that would want you to dislodge Suarez from the rotation.

Future decisions (sort of in order that they need to be made):

• Is Walker good enough to stash in the bullpen
• Do we want to try some tandem starts to conserve innings for pitchers like Ranger or Luzardo if we do have both Ross and Walker in the bullpen?
• Who is the 6th starter if somebody gets hurt?
• When will Painter be ready (assuming 4-6 quick starts in the minors go well)??
• Do we go with 6 starters with Painter or do we put somebody in the bullpen?

One could say that writing this on the chalkboard we could use Walker for tandem starts now and an occasional 6th start to give everyone extra rest. And then Painter could bump Suarez to the bullpen in July where he would be a weapon. But rarely do seasons play out according to chalk. Yes the Phillies could move Suarez to the bullpen to help the team (and hurt his free agent status), but things are likely to happen along the way that the Phillies probably don't have to make that decision.

[andyb]

Sanchez mentioned here with a Skubal fastball comparison. Curtis Mead noted also (went 8-9 to start Spring Training).

From a Skubal-level fastball to baseball's most unique rookie: 10 players MLB...

[Austinfan]

Deal with the future when it arrives, for this season, they're set.
We may look at Abel, Johnson, Chace, Cabrera very differently by September.
Young pitchers are erratic, some break down, some break up.

[zambonir]

Right now there is no more reason to think Walker is ready to pitch in the Phillies rotation than there is to think Wheeler and Luzardo aren't better than their most recent spring training outing. It's good (in both cases) if the stuff is better even then the execution isn't. But let it play out.

[andyb]

Deal with the future when it arrives, for this season, they're set.
We may look at Abel, Johnson, Chace, Cabrera very differently by September.
Young pitchers are erratic, some break down, some break up.

Not sure why you are so obsessed with penciling in all the prospects who are not ready to contribute. The discussion here is more on how to use and optimize the pitchers that are on the roster now or who are probably ready (Painter). The immediate question really is whether Walker is worth a bullpen spot. Then later whether Ranger is better suited for a bullpen role especially if Painter comes up.

None of the other prospects matter for the moment regarding those decisions.

[Austinfan]

My point flew by you.

The pitching prospects aren't counted on for this season, which is why they signed Ross, traded for Luzardo and kept Walker. Painter has become an insurance policy. They have more than enough pitching to get through this season.

The short-term injury fixes will be the AAA plus types they load up with at Lehigh, and a couple young RPs who step up.

The four I mentioned are about 2026, how they develop will determine some of the offseason moves. It's unlikely that any will come up this summer, unless they really surprise. Young RPs can contribute immediately if they have a plus FB and secondary pitch, young starters need time to perfect four pitches to go through a lineup three times.

[zambonir]

Ross is an insurance policy. Painter is a security blanket for the real-world likelihood that they will need a 7th starter by the time he's ready. And/or they are willing to go six-man, trade someone or move someone to the pen if everything goes perfectly (which would include Painter himself not getting hurt). Walker is still just, here. The upside that he can either actually help (if needed) or be traded is, IMO, still worth the last roster spot for a while.

[andyb]

The discussion was about 2025, not 2026. And how to use our pitchers this year. You just seemed to inject a complete non sequitor. Your bias is always that our prospects are actually much better than they are perceived so it is hard to know what your point is. Seth Johnson has not looked like a major league pitcher yet. Abel has not even pitched yet this year (is he hurt?) after a 6+ ERA last year. Chace looks good, but has like 4 starts of 5 innings or more on his resume and needs to pitch in AAA. Cabrera is nice depth but not really a top prospect.

Pitching depth in the minors is actually a pretty significant issue because beyond Painter and Chace at the moment we are painfully thin compared to most organizations.

[zambonir]

I'm sure they are hoping that Phillips will clear waivers and they will probably make a claim of their own or sign some fungible AAAA arm late too.

In a funny way they are in the same spot they were last year - Turnbull was going to have the right to refuse an assignment too, there was just some thought that he'd agreed to accept it, knowing he was first man up and had he gone to another team they might not have given him the same $/incentives.

Last year they also had Allard who had options. And he was so shaky he wound up in AA.

[Austinfan]

Below AA, I don't even know how you judge pitchers.
Ranger was crap, until he filled out, added 6 MPH, improved his changeup, etc.

Young hitters tend to have a fairly consistent progression, as they rise, flaws are revealed (discipline, seeing breaking stuff, hitting breaking stuff, etc.), either they adjust or flatline. Which is why most top hitters arrive fairly quickly, they can hit any FB, and once they adjust to breaking stuff, they're ML ready.The second tier guys tend to have to figure out "cheat codes" (struggle with sliders but after time learn to spit on them, or adjust swing mechanics to be a little quicker with the bat).

Young pitchers are far more erratic, seems something like 1/3 or more get TJ at some point, many make velo jumps, some develop new pitches, etc. A mediocre prospect with a low 90s FB develops a plus changeup and makes a huge jump, a top prospect can't master his secondary pitches or improve his command and regresses. This even holds for AAA plus guys, how often do they struggle for years, then make a change and jump to the Show?

[andyb]

This is not a minor league thread. Your philosophy on young pitchers may be interesting, but it really does not apply here.

[VoteForKalas]

Thoughts on possible lineup changes?

I'm hearing three main options:

(1)
Turner
Harper
Bohm
Schwarber
Realmuto
Stott
Casty
Marsh
Kepler

(2)
Harper
Turner
Schwarber
Casty
Bohm
Kepler
Realmuto
Stott
Marsh

(3)
Stott
Turner
Harper
Schwarber
Bohm
Relamuto
Kepler
Casty
Marsh

I like Stott in leadoff with Turner, Harper and either Schwarber or Bohm 4th.

[zambonir]

I think it's Turner Schwarber Harper or Turner Harper Schwarber. Those are your three best hitters. I think you either leave Schwarbs up top or you give up on the righty/lefty thing but you don't want him as low as 4th. Harper and Schwarber can both hit LHP, plus Bohm or Casty at 4 can both make a LH reliever pay if they are the third batter.

Don't think it really matters after 1-3. Bohm should probably hit 4th on the assumption that he's also the better hitter than Casty, until proven otherwise. He certainly is an RBI machine even if Nick has more HR Pop.

After the year Stott had at the plate - as well as his terrible numbers in limited career action as a lead-off hitter (or even leading off an inning) he's not a guy I want getting the most ABs on the team. Or even the sixth-most. I think it's also actually nice to have him and Marsh at the bottom to get on base for the 1-2 guys.

[phillychuck]

It's not good strategy overall to give Stott extra ABs unless he has substantially improved from last year. Pick a lineup that maximizes Schwarber's and Harper's ABs, followed by Bohm and Turner, then Casty and Realmuto, and bat Stott, Kepler and Marsh near the bottom until circumstances indicate a change in their performance. I'd like to see lineup #2 or #1 of the choices above although I understand it's not optimal for Harper to lead off. The thing that makes it hard to optimize this group of players is the lack of a .380 OBP guy that you don't want hitting in the meat of the order. If you don't mind Harper and Schwarber back-to-back you could bat them 3/4, but besides Turner you don't really have anyone to slot into #1 or #2.

You could try

Turner
Bohm
Harper
Schwarber
Casty
Kepler
Realmuto
Stott
Marsh

Lineups don't affect run scoring that much other than the guys at the top get more ABs, so just keep the better hitters near the top.

[zambonir]

FWIW yesterday was Turner/Harper/Bohm/Schwarber/Casty.

[VoteForKalas]

I think Stott has the tools, believe it would energize him and he would be able to step up to the task, but he is my favorite player and I admit my bias.

Neither Turner or Harper interest me at leadoff. We've tried Turner before and started winning as soon as Schwarber replaced him. Harper should hit 3rd as our best hitter and hopefully with guys on base so teams cannot just walk or pitch around him.

I know lineup construction does not matter much, but I think Thomson moving back to Turner does fit into a larger theme I've noticed. When DD and Thomson arrived, the Phillies became more progressive and innovative.

They went with a closer by situation instead of one designated guy, they put the non conventional Schwarber at leadoff, they utilized platoons, they used a 6 man rotation for a spell, they gave pitchers like Suarez and Sanchez chances etc.

As the years have gone on, they have gotten more traditional and less innovative IMO. We've had designated closers in Kimbrel, Estevez and now Romano instead of maximizing flexibility, Turner is moving back to leadoff, no 6 man rotation appears likely, the OF platoons are over with Casty, Marsh and Kepler set as starters etc.

[Austinfan]

I never liked the Turner contract b/c I don't think he has the plate discipline to age well, much less lead off.
Kinda reminds me of Rollins, who never embraced the role of leadoff hitter but chafed at being buried lower in the lineup - Rollins should have walked 80+ times a year with his power and short stature.
Turner the same, with his power and ability to make contact, he should be able to run deep counts on a regular basis, but tends to start chasing like the second half of last season.

Stott has that potential with his ability to hit with 2 strikes, allows him to spit on borderline pitches and run deep counts.

[zambonir]

Turner was just bad no matter where he hit at the time he led off in 2022. But the Turner who almost hit .300 and had the third-highest OBP and OPS on the team (after the guy who already led off and Harper) last year should be fine there. He has a career .836 OPS leading off and still has more career PAs there than #2 (though only barely now).

His discipline/walks still a bit thin, but Phillies just don't have anyone else like that besides - again - those other two guys. I do think Stott might have a future there and you would also think Marsh could, but not yet (especially since they both don't play 100% of the time either).

I'm not sure Joe Torre's bench coach and our old-guard President were ever really that innovative, even if Fuld and Cotham are. I think they did all that stuff out of necessity. There was no closer in 2022 because they didn't have a closer (and I still hope Romano isn't guaranteed to be that). They didn't so much run platoons by choice as, they never had three good OFs (and barely had good platoon guys to complement the better ones anyway). In '22 and '23 Schwarber, Marsh (once he arrived) and Casty were the starting OFs, save for Marsh not facing LHP. Last year it was supposed to be Marsh, Rojas and Casty and they neither had a good enough RHB to platoon with Marsh or another good CF to platoon with Rojas. I just hope they aren't wrong about Kepler being able to play everyday.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I would not want to see Stott leading off at this stage. As much as I am not a big fan of Schwarber leading off I see how it can be as good as any other combination at this time.
If Turner leads off with Harper 2nd, I don't really want Harper to have to take pitches he should be hitting to give Turner a chance to run or at least see a few pitches to time up a potential steal. I can't imagine this would occur so it kind of defeats the purpose of having a really fast guy lead off and a 2nd batter who takes some pitches.