Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[allentown]

I think the best chance for Walker to re-establish value is as a starter. Probably not good for his recovery to try to make a reliever out of him. I still favor a 6-starter rotation. It would be good for Wheeler as well. One way to improve last year's playoff performance, at least possibly, is to not use our SP and key relievers as hard during the regular season. It's tougher this year than last, since this years Phillies on paper, and playing against some improved and other likely healthier than last season teams, is unlikely to make the playoffs with nearly the margin of the 2024 team.

[Austinfan]

I think for Wheeler, who is a horse and a rhythm pitcher, is better off with 4 days rest, except toward the end of the season, where you'd want to go 5 days for a few weeks until a couple weeks before the playoffs where you revert back to 4 to get him into a rhythm for the playoffs.Keep his arm fresh but don't get him out of sync.

The others are probably better with 5 days rest, especially Nola as he ages, and maybe Ranger. Nola is best with a fresh arm where he doesn't overthrow and lose command trying to maintain velocity.

[zambonir]

I'm not so sure it's going to be tougher this year. We have a monster rotation. The Mets added Soto but that doesn't mean they will just pick right up where they left off in the second half (much like the 2023 Phillies didn't). The Braves have already lost their starting catcher, won't have Acuna for a while, and are still looking for pitching. And I think the bullpen's performance in the playoffs was just randomness/bad luck, not a crash from overuse (unlike 2023 when Kimbrel and Alvarado actually were cooked).

Not saying it's going to be easy to win 95 games or the East, but also don't know if it matters, given the NL East winner was not the best post-season team any of the last three years.

I suppose that might speak to your point actually - don't try to hard to win in the regular season, sneak in with 90 wins and save it for October.

Wheeler's stats pretty clearly say he is best on four days rest. Plus he prefers it. I don't think they are eager to go to a six-man for Walker (let alone Ross). That's something that will happen in July if it needs to.

For now we are still counting chickens since the Phillies haven't started the season with the planned five starters at any point in the last three years (closest they came was 2022 when Wheeler missed all of spring training but still went out there to pitch the 5th game).

[Austinfan]

Wheeler 32s 6.3 IP
Nola 33s 6.0 IP
Sanchez 31s 5.8 IP
Suarez 27s 5.6 IP
Walker 15s 5.2 IP
Turnbull 7s 5.0 IP
Phillips 7s 5.0 IP
Allard 4s 4.3 IP
6s bullpen, Mercado, Johnson

Luzardo will replace the 29 starts of Walker/Turnbull/Phillips, and probably go 5.5, 15 less innings pitched by the bullpen.
With Walker or Ross or Painter, those 10 "bullpen games" will probably save another 15-20 bullpen innings.

[BostonRoss]

I wouldn't want to go to a six man rotation, which would mean fewer starts by the better pitchers, unless I had evidence of the benefits. Is there any analysis indicating that pitchers tire less later in the season, or get injured less, if they pitch in a six man rotation as opposed to five?

I'd rather not have the top starters give up 20 or more starts to the likes of Walker or Ross. Unless it's late in the season and the playoff positioning is mostly decided, I would stick with the five man rotation as long as the good pitchers are healthy. You can still manage their workload by having them leave non-close games earlier and skipping the occasional start. If you want to push everyone back a day and let Ross take on the White Sox, that's fine.

[phillychuck]

There is no role for Walker or Ross out of the bullpen if they don't start or piggyback, teams routinely need 7 or 8 starters in a season (or more), and you have ot keep those two (or at least one of them) stretched out. I don't think either one has options, and Walker can decline anyway and you still have to pay him. I don't know how you use those guys out of the bullpen and keep them ready to start.

BostonRoss, there are lots of studies that show pitchers get injured more frequently pitching more innings, and are less effective the following season. I have not seen one that deals with effectiveness late in the season to be fair. Losing Nola starts and Sanchez starts and Luzardo starts for Walker starts and Ross starts or piggyback games seems to be likely to cost a few games and a few tenths of a point in team ERA, so the risk is genuine on the won/loss front.

[phillychuck]

Luzardo will replace the 29 starts of Walker/Turnbull/Phillips, and probably go 5.5, 15 less innings pitched by the bullpen.

You are honestly expecting Sanchez, Nola, Wheeler, and Luzardo to start 32 or 33 games each, or close to that? Bad plan.

[HarrisburgPhan]

You are honestly expecting Sanchez, Nola, Wheeler, and Luzardo to start 32 or 33 games each, or close to that? Bad plan.

The numbers AF posted aren't an expectation (except for the Luzardo numbers), they are the actual numbers from last year (2024). Bad plan? Maybe if you consider the end of the year, but for the most part it was a very successful season.

[phillychuck]

It's a bad plan because your four top pitchers are not going to remain healthy for a full season more than about 10% of the time. You can't plan on it, even if it happened last year, or especially if it happened last year. Wheeler and Nola have advancing age and high milage working against them, Luzardo has an injury history, and Sanchez, who is probably the most likely to stay healthy, still has started more than 20 games exactly once, last year, and pitchers are much more likely to break down after an innings jump like that. Planning on that kind of pitching health is not realistic.

[RTaylor]

I wonder why Mick Abel hasn't had any innings yet. I get the plan for Painter, but I don't see how this would apply to Abel. Hope he's healthy.

[zambonir]

There is no role for Walker or Ross out of the bullpen if they don't start or piggyback, teams routinely need 7 or 8 starters in a season (or more), and you have ot keep those two (or at least one of them) stretched out.

You don't have to, it would just mean a ramp-up/bullpen games if an injury happens. They are keeping Ross stretched out but only for three innings and that will fall by the wayside pretty quickly once the season starts. There's no way to keep Walker stretched out without going to a six-man. But long men toggle into the starters - versus calling up a guy from AAA who's already stretched out and on turn - all the time. Granted the results often aren't pretty but that's usually more about the caliber of the pitcher than the process.

I think modern research shows that IPs and pitch counts are not an especially meaningful data point for injury or effectiveness. It's much more granular as far as types of pitches thrown and stressful innings. But it is probably not realistic to expect Luzardo to turn in 32 starts (his 2023 number) when he only made 12 last year and 18 in 2022. And while Ranger made 27 starts he was only good for the first 19.

Ross says he prefers to start but he was signed for the hybrid role. It really still depends whether they carry Walker, but either way, he'd be a toggler, if they need him to be.

Phillies notes: Joe Ross’ signing story, Aaron Nola’s north-south game, Johan...

[zambonir]

From the above

• Ranger Suárez will make his spring debut Tuesday — albeit as a reliever. The Phillies want to keep Wheeler on his schedule, so he’ll start the Grapefruit League game against the New York Yankees and Suárez will piggyback him. The lefty will likely go two innings and should start the next time through the rotation.

Suárez has been throwing bullpen sessions and facing hitters in live batting practices. The Phillies won’t say it, but they have put Suárez on a more gradual buildup with the goal of better managing him in the season’s first two months.

__• Mick Abel and Moisés Chace have been facing hitters in simulated setups; both prospects are expected to pitch sometime this week, Thomson said.

[phillychuck]

I concede it's a difficult problem. You either deal with bullpen games and ramp-ups and carry Ross and Walker as relievers, or you figure out some way to keep them stretched out. Or you bet on unlikely health from at least 4 of the 5 starters. I would go to a creative solution with six starters myself, piggybacking Walker and Ross as starter #6, at least initially. Painter, if healthy and effective in June, is another possible solution to an early summer injury. Abel is a wild card.

I'm really adverse to the first solution--bullpen games and ramp-ups not only impact the game where you're implementing that strategy, they stress the bullpen and often impact other games. I'd like to see the Phils find another way.

I'm pretty sure putting both Walker and Ross in the bullpen to pitch occasional multiple inning stints is not strategically optimal and will irritate both pitchers and mess with the clubhouse dynamic.

[zambonir]

I'm pretty sure putting both Walker and Ross in the bullpen to pitch occasional multiple inning stints is not strategically optimal and will irritate both pitchers and mess with the clubhouse dynamic.

It won't be both of them though. Ideally, it won't be either of them. Ross is a middle reliever and Walker is the long man. If someone gets hurt one of them will step up just like Strahm did in 2023 and/or step back in 2024 like Turnbull had to. The latter situation obviously didn't go well but Turnbull was probably an injury waiting to happen regardless. He certainly had good reason to be unhappy but he never was publicly (even despite his previous history with Detroit). Ross explicitly agreed - and was paid - to take this role, so it should not affect him or the dynamic. And Walker's been a good soldier.

I think the odds are still that Walker isn't in the picture. But if he is that means the Phillies value the emergency depth more than they do the 8th bullpen spot or any chemistry concerns. If he is lights out and they actually want to go with a six-man, that's not necessarily a bad thing. It would still probably lead to him being traded, and you get the same number of innings from the spot (6 IPs once a week instead of 2-3 twice a week).

I think they are pretty firmly committed to not using Painter until after the All-Star Break. He's probably going to skip starts and have an innings limit in Allentown too. He won't really be ready and they don't want him to come up and just start ripping it on short notice. Of course, stuff happens.

Bullpen games work in MLB in 2024, and what's more, most times the Phillies didn't do one last year they turned into one anyway.

Don't really see why you'd piggy back the sixth starter. It would be Walker. You let Ross relieve, on a normal reliever's schedule. You can't have only six relievers

[BostonRoss]

BostonRoss, there are lots of studies that show pitchers get injured more frequently pitching more innings, and are less effective the following season. I have not seen one that deals with effectiveness late in the season to be fair. Losing Nola starts and Sanchez starts and Luzardo starts for Walker starts and Ross starts or piggyback games seems to be likely to cost a few games and a few tenths of a point in team ERA, so the risk is genuine on the won/loss front.

I agree that in general, pitching too much leads to more injuries and a drop in effectiveness. The question is whether 30 starts of 6 innings is too much. It may be for some pitchers (Ranger?), but if I were going to trade off starts by better pitchers for starts by worse ones, I would want to see evidence of the drop in effectiveness for 180 inning pitchers. I think that by strategically skipping starts and having a quicker hook on starters, the workload in a five man rotation should be fine.

[andyb]

The other point on pitcher usage is that a 6-man rotation would only leave 7 pitchers in the bullpen. The 8th pitcher in the bullpen is not always the long man (which for us is Ross who will be the 7th bullpen pitcher). Lazar or Jose Ruiz have been that 8th man for us the past few years and their presence helped avoid excessive back to back outings over the year for guys like Kerkering and Alvarado.

If most of our relievers are of the 1-inning variety then not having that 8th pitcher available will lead to overuse in the number of outings as opposed to total number of innings.

[zambonir]

The other point on pitcher usage is that a 6-man rotation would only leave 7 pitchers in the bullpen. The 8th pitcher in the bullpen is not always the long man (which for us is Ross who will be the 7th bullpen pitcher). Lazar or Jose Ruiz have been that 8th man for us the past few years and their presence helped avoid excessive back to back outings over the year for guys like Kerkering and Alvarado.

But I don't think that's really been true more often than not. In April of last year it was mostly Pinto. Ruiz replaced him on the roster in early June but was a long man/mop-up guy until he wasn't. By July he was ahead of Soto and Seranthony. And Turnbull was actually the 8th man for about a month during that time. Lazar didn't even show up until August 9.

And along the way they actually were carrying Walker as a reliever, or one of the other 6th man scrubs (which also came at Lazar's expense, even with the extra roster spot in September).

It's a really boring spring training clearly (we don't even talk about the games!). Because the most likely scenarios are still that Walker is needed in a five-man rotation, Walker is traded, Walker is released or Walker is the 8th reliever. I'd put six-man rotation last on that list.

[andyb]

And Turnbull was actually the 8th man for about a month during that time. Lazar didn't even show up until August 9.

You are missing the forest for the trees. It does not matter when Lazar showed up. And Turnbull was only in the bullpen after a very successful round starting. There is no reason to think Walker would be good at that.

And bullpen overuse WAS a problem. We had 4 pitchers with 64+ appearances. And that does not count Dominguez and Soto who also were used heavily. The extra bullpen options like Marte and Ruiz were mixed, but even they handled a bunch of appearances. The bullpen wore down at the end of the year and overuse was probably an issue. Just saying they did not always use the 8th pitcher is not a good answer. A good bullpen uses the 8th pitcher to lessen the season load on pitchers 1-6. If we had 2 long men in the bullpen, 1 with questionable effectiveness in Walker, we'll just end up using the first 6 pitchers too much.

Maybe we are a little less dependent on 1-inning pitchers now with Banks replacing Soto, but we still depend on them more than most bullpens. It will be an issue if we get fewer innings from our starters which is very possiible.

[zambonir]

I dunno, I still just think the 8th man is usually a scrub. It was Covey for almost four months in 2023 (and they ran a six-man for a while then too, and then had Covey and Lorenzen at the bottom of the bullpen).

And if Walker actually has his stuff back, he can be effective out of the pen just the same as Turnbull. I know it was something they (and he?) simply refused to do in '23 but obviously things changed last year.

Sure, it's nice to have your mop-up guy enter a game where you are trailing 4-1 and not make it 7-1, but those situations, as well as late games that aren't super-winnable, are not ones in which you use your better relievers. And when you do it's usually because they've had too many days off!

I don't know that they are going to get fewer innings from the starters. I still think this deep 1-5 rotation is going to make the bullpen less important/used. Hopefully we are more worried about Rob leaving them in too long because they are too good/have big leads. If there is a reliever pitching in the 6th inning it probably means we're losing, not that they are trying to conserve innings (even in the third-time-through age).

[andyb]

The whole point is that if the 8th man is a scrub and you need to save the 7th man (Ross) for multi-inning roles, you inevitably end up using 1-6 in too many outings. It might not show up in any single outing or with any one pitcher, but by October if they have had 70+ outings including the playoffs cracks will emerge.