Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[zambonir]

Yeah they had to spend a percentage of their revenue share to get the payroll to a certain point but I think they already got there with their various moves (including extending Rooker).

[andyb]

If Walker gets to the point where he seems like he's worth $10m, the Phillies might want to keep him.

Agreed. And to get to that point he would have to pitch a lot, most likely as a starter. The only scenario where I see that is with an injury to a starter and where the Phillies would just rather have Painter replacing him in July. The scenario to trade Walker for something real probably would require him to put up 10+ starts with a mid-3 ERA.

[zambonir]

Yeah we don't really want to see Walker get the opportunity to make 10 or even 5 starts. Whatever combo of injuries leads to that would probably mean keeping him around.

I suppose they might consider a 6-man at some point though, that is possibly the plan when Painter comes up.

In a perfect world everyone is so healthy and terrific that the Phillies could actually either trade Ranger or move him to the bullpen. But I can't imagine they'd put that kind of pressure and risk on Painter (or Walker if he's still here).

[andyb]

Ranger in the bullpen in the second half might be lousy for Ranger's free agent prospects, but it might be really good for the Phillies (assuming they wanted Painter in the rotation and of course Painter pitches well).

[zambonir]

Yeah that could be a real interesting test of the Boras dynamic. But let's see him be the best healthiest version of himself before it gets to that point. Luzardo too. Painter in tandem with either of them could also work (though that's basically the same as a six-man)

[andyb]

Ranger in the bullpen could be brought in as a LOOGY but then left in to pitch the next inning. We are trying to use Banks in that role now and he is just not that good against right-handed hitters.

[phillychuck]

With Wheeler and Nola being older, it seems to make sense to use the sixth starter to skip guys in the rotation or extend their rest occasionally. Nola seems to do very well on extra rest, and Wheeler doesn't like it, so figure it out as you go along, but use six starters. You can skip or extend the rest of Suarez, Sanchez, and Luzardo once per month when they are feeling tired or sore and probably keep everyone healthier. It would take creative management, and I'm not sure that is the strong suit of the current staff...

[zambonir]

They ran a six-man in 2023 with Lorenzen and they have used openers and bullpen games so I don't see them as being set in their ways. They seemed pretty determined to do a six-man last year too but then by the time it was supposed to happen they only had four pitchers (Turnbull and Suarez both hurt, and Walker and all the others not even good enough to be 5s).

So first you have to actually have a sixth starter. Unless Walker truly forces that issue it won't be needed until July.

[Philsmania]

Yeah that could be a real interesting test of the Boras dynamic. But let's see him be the best healthiest version of himself before it gets to that point. Luzardo too. Painter in tandem with either of them could also work (though that's basically the same as a six-man)

Ranger is really good when healthy but the problem is that he has yet to have a healthy full season in MLB.

[andyb]

I'd be fine if they did a 6-day rotation. With off days that probably means they skip the 6th starter 50-70% of the time. The 6th starter would then be a bullpen game with Ross or Walker picking up 3 innings.

What I do not really want is an intentional 6th starter with Walker and Ross taking 20+ starts away from the better starters. It is probably far from certain that the Phillies would keep Walker in the bullpen to start the season though. I still think they would prefer him to get 2 months of starts in AAA to really improve his value. He'd have to accept that assignment though.

[zambonir]

I suppose it's possible the relationship and sense of obligation is good enough for him to accept an assignment but there is really no reason for him to do it, especially if it's just to help his trade value. It's an easy thing to find out in advance though!

I feel like they really need Ross in the pen as Hoffman's replacement (if we view Romano as Estevez's replacement).

It's all a big Catch-22 with Ranger. Ideally he stays healthy, pitches 150 innings with 3.0 WAR (which would be a career high for him as a starter exclusively) and goes on his merry way. Anything else and not only are you looking at all these different scenarios but you wonder about the QO.

[andyb]

Walker's agent will probably know if there is another team that would sign Walker to a major league roster with a rotation spot. If Walker continues to show the velocity he had the other day I am guessing there would be several teams willing to risk a 1-year minimum salary deal on Walker. At least that is $740K plus taxes off our salary load. Not real money but we are in the 110% bracket now. We'd have to cut $6 million to get down to the 95% bracket.

[zambonir]

I think if a team is ready to give him a major league deal out of spring training the Phillies actually will be able to trade him and shave a little bit more $ off the CBT. Not a ton, but more than minimum. If he gets DFAed and elects free agency I'd think it's more likely to be a minor league deal with an opt-out date, with a team that has already shown him how he's likely to end up in the rotation. Which could still happen quickly of course.

In the meantime he's here in case of injury, while other teams may still present themselves as teams in need should they have injuries.

[BostonRoss]

I feel like there’s a better than even chance one of the five main starters has to miss significant time by mid-season, maybe earlier. If it’s before Painter is ready, we might we’ll see Walker get some starts.

[andyb]

It just may be hard to keep Walker though if he does not want to go to the minors. The question is whether the Phillies would devote the last spot in the bullpen to Walker just as a contingency even though he has no track record of successfully pitching out of the bullpen.

[BostonRoss]

I think they might keep Walker if he shows he's better than he was last year, partly because of the money. It does depend on how the other relievers look (and of they're all healthy).

[zambonir]

That 8th reliever spot is just so negligible, especially if Ross is also stretched out for multi-inning. Last April they opened with Nick Nelson and Connor Brogdon in the bullpen, and then Ricardo Pinto for almost the entire month in place of Brogdon. (Kerkering reclaimed the other spot, the 8th was meant to be Ortiz).

It also didn't seem like Walker struggled with the bullpen role or routine per se when he finally had to do it. He just couldn't pitch, period (but was arguably better in the odd relief outing, which I believe is how he wound up back in the rotation one last time even).

But if there's any market for him at all they probably move him. As much trouble as they had last year filling the spot after Turnbull, this rotation is still pretty ridiculous 1-5, and last year's team still won 95 games. If they have to go with Ross or Johnson as a #6 here or there pre-Painter they would live.

In 2023 the first month's rotation was Strahm and Falter. Ranger was out, and Sanchez wasn't yet a consideration (he was also hurt). Falter was briefly replaced by none other than Dylan Covey before Sanchez finally came in.

[flyers19rw]

There’s one guy in the Phillies’ starting rotation who does not want a six man rotation. That guy sets the rules.

[zambonir]

Ha, true, but they can work around him. He eventually did want to get back on normal rest in 2023 but they also didn't intend to keep doing it forever (they just didn't realize Sanchez would so clearly beat out Lorenzen). I don't think his arm needs protecting yet. Obviously he wants to win the CY which counting stats help with (plus he's just better on four days rest historically) but if protecting Suarez and Luzardo and/or making room for Painter makes the Phillies a better team he's not going flat-out refuse (and the Phillies also won't flat-out make him).

[phillychuck]

You can pitch Wheeler every 5 days and rotate through the other 5 guys, who all seem to be better or extra rest.

Wheeler
Nola
Sanchez
Suarez
Luzardo
Wheeler
Walker/Ross
Nola
Sanchez
Suarez
Wheeler
Luzardo
Walker/Ross
Nola
Sanchez
Wheeler
etc.

Skip Walker/Ross once every three or four times, especially when there are off days.