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zambonir
Feb 15
kmc1019

With which player at shortstop (and which player at 2B)? Stott's not that great a SS (nor that great a hitter until we see a bounce-back). And Sosa showed himself to be his usual below-average bat eventually last year too.

If Kepler is actually good, you want both him and Turner in the batting order. And if Miller is our SS in 2026 I would still sooner see Turner at 3B and a more potent LF bat (though that decision will also be linked to whether they keep Schwarber, and Bohm for his last year obviously).

andyb
Feb 15

Whether Turner goes to the OF in a few years depends as much on our alternatives elsewhere. Bohm, Marsh, Rojas, Crawford, whatever we do in RF.

It is actually good that Turner athletically can play anywhere. I don't fault him at all for wanting to stay at SS as long as possible. That is good. That is him being competitive. But he also volunteered to play CF for the Nats when he came up so they could keep Ian Desmond I believe at SS. Desmond was decent defensively but nothing great in the back end of his tenure with the Nats. Turner also played 2B in the WBC and we really don't know about Stott long term after last year.

Turner gives us lots of options and that is good. I hope Miller stays at SS defensively because that could help the team defensively at multiple positions. Turner would likely be a huge upgrade over Castellanos for instance. Bohm too.

allentown
Feb 15

Sosa had a poor second half of season, but I think we should judge based upon the full season data set. Sosa was OPS+ of 104 for the season and 97 for his career. Kepler's OPS+ last season was 91. His 120 OPS+ in 2022 was his only year above 100 of the past 4 seasons and his career OPS+ is 102. Since this is his age 32 season upcoming, it's asking a lot to expect plus offense from him.

David_Criss
Feb 15

Is anyone talking about Kepler in right, Schwarber in left and Castellanos as designated hitter?

julio
Feb 15

You think Schwarber would be better in LF than Castellanos?

Austinfan
Feb 15

It'll be up in the air all season.

If Kepler hits, at least RH pitching, and Marsh can hit RH pitching, Crawford LH hitter, may depend on Rojas, whether his winter ball performance shows improvement. Wilson in LF, Castellanos in RF against LH pitching.

I can see Castellanos becoming a platoon OF b/c his hitting against RH isn't good enough to compensate for his fielding.
Last three seasons, against RH pitchers, 93, 94, 98 RC+. Given his fielding that's below replacement - better off playing Rojas, 106, 77 RC+ against RH pitching last two seasons.
Meanwhile, against LH pitchers, 100, 149, 125.

zambonir
Feb 15
allentown

Well, I'm not truly comparing Kepler to Sosa. It's possible Kepler is not going to bounce back and is not a suitable LF. But I think we already know Sosa is what he is. He's a capable back-up and strong defender who can get hot for a while but is eventually exposed.

Neither Turner nor Sosa are second, third or fourth in line to play a little LF. And nobody's trying to get Schwarber or JT serious playing time there either.

And no, nobody's talking about playing Schwarber in the field 100+ times, even to get Nick out of it. Would sooner just put Nick in LF. But goes to show you they think asking Nick to adjust to LF when he's made himself at least playable in RF is less preferable to letting Kepler play LF. And, they no longer value outfield defense in general. Marsh is playing where he's not as good, Kepler is playing where he's not as good, Casty isn't good, and Rojas is on the bench.

andyb
Feb 15

Kepler had arm injury issues last season and Castellanos does have a decent arm. Kepler in LF and Castellanos in RF is almost certainly the better defensive choice if you are playing both of them at once. Marsh would be a more interesting question to flip, but they have never done that and it almost certainly would not be on the table except in an emergency.

zambonir
Feb 16

It's funny how the narratives are one thing but what actually gets said in the story doens't always match. For instance in this one Harper says he won't lead off (but would hit 2nd or 4th) and in one of the others he said he doesn't want to play anywhere other than 1B (i.e. no DH days).

Austinfan
Feb 16
andyb

Marsh has played 74 innings in RF the last two years, he could probably handle it fine if needed.
But if would make more sense to platoon Kepler with Castellanos in RF with Marsh in LF against RH pitching.

Marsh is a subpar fielding CF, and Rojas actually hits RH pitching the same or better than LH pitching, so I'm dubious about his value as a CF. They'll be watching Crawford's progress closely.

zambonir
Feb 16

Rojas's platoon splits are a small sample, and also full of noise from his highs and lows. The Phillies and Thomson almost always ignore that (if they are platooning that is. They also ignore it when they have just decided a guy should play every day, whether they are right or wrong).

In CF as things currently stand it is pretty much guaranteed Rojas will play against LHP and Marsh against RHP. Even if Rojas continues to hit RHP better by his own standard, he's nowhere near Marsh's standard (or Kepler's).

And there's also no indication Castellanos will be platooning in any way. Nor should he, if he's able to avoid a slump and pick up where he left off last year. If he craters that's another story. And he should actually get one game a week off this year.

I doubt Marsh is subpar in CF (I.e. he will still be positive value). Just not as good as Rojas or as good as his own work in LF

Hopefully this plan works and they are not once again looking for a RHB OF or talking about Luis Robert. Crawford could still be traded, could be the 2026 starting CF or could just be the next Rojas. I'd be surprised if he's a factor this year (and if he is that means Kepler has gone the way of Merrifield).

Austinfan
Feb 16
1

Castellanos should platoon b/c his L/R split the last three years says he's a 95-100 RC+ hitter against RH pitching, which combined with his poor fielding makes him below replacement level.

Now will they platoon him? Depends on whether they want to win or placate an overpaid player.

zambonir
Feb 16

Agreed, but they won't do it, especially since they are equally determined to let Kepler play against LHP (just as they intended to let Hays play against RHP) and don't seem especially eager to play Rojas more. So there isn't actually anyone to platoon with him.

Now, if he repeats his start from 2024, or if Crawford really does force a call-up, it will be a different story. Then you can also start the process of imagining 2026 without Nick as a starting OF (whatever that looks like) which would allow them to put Marsh in RF or sign a FA. But I would rather still hope Nick has the offense he showed from June to September last year, even you'd still rather he was a DH. His second-half OPS was .839 and 2/3 to 3/4 of those ABs were still likely against RHP (full-season it was 74%).

They aren't catering to his ego or in a sunk cost fallacy; our HOF President and winningest all-time manager both actually believe he's good. Not saying they are right, but he's still better than his haters think (just like Bohm).

It seems like their philosophy is also that the pitching is so good that the defense can be bad, rather than needing the defense to help the pitching staff. They want offense more.

andyb
Feb 16

Just get it out of your head that they are going to platoon Castellanos. They are not. He still is an above average offensive bat and until that changes they are not going to demote him.

The Marsh suggestion has nothing to do with familiarity to the position. Just skills where he would be an improvement in RF relative to Castellanos when Kepler is not playing. But that means Kepler has regressed or is hurt or a LHP is throwing (where Marsh wouldn't play anyway). But in terms of skills Marsh does not have the arm injury that Kepler had. The Marsh thing won't happen also because you don't want Casty moving back and forth. That in itself is a negative and if Casty is better suited to RF in the every day lineup that is where he should stay.

allentown
Feb 16

Actually, Kepler has an OPS of .672 against RHP (last season, when in VSSS he actually hit better against LHP), so he is not a thunderous bat to compensate for not great, or even good, D as a CF. Rojas had a .633 OPS against RHP and was significantly worse against LHP last year, so you don't buy a ton of offense by sacrificing D to sit Rojas.

allentown
Feb 16

Is he really? His OPS+ last season was only His OPS+ last season was only 106 with huge split differentials. If the Phillies analytical staff are as good as reported and have the courage of their convictions to honestly report the stats to the manager and DD, then they all know that Castellanos is a below average hitter against RHP and in night games. He should not be an every day player. You have to look deeper than the back of the baseball cards, and even by that naive measure, Casty hasn't been all that good, averaging 0.8 WAR per season in Philly. Marsh is far better. Rojas and Kepler are both coming off down seasons, but they both possibly may provide more overall value than Castellanos. Make Casty a platoon guy and let him put up better numbers in that role. I think it likeliest that the 3.4 WAR season that earned him his big Philly deal was a fluke, that his total of 2.4 WAR over the past 3 years in Philly is the more accurate gauge of his current value and that at age 33 we should ezpect that he is on a downward trajectory. If Phillies' management chooses to play him every day to keep the vets happy, they are throwing away wins in a season where we likely need just about every possible win to reach the post-season.

zambonir
Feb 16
allentown

Yeah but I'm going career with Kepler for now. .778 with great defense too (albeit in RF to this point but I think he'll be fine) and that's with last year dragging him down. If he can't do that anymore he's a bust (and I question trying to play him every day).

The tail was wagging the dog here - Philliies were not sold on Rojas and were moving Marsh to CF (that was already true last year before Hays got sick) so it was just a question of who would play LF. Should it have been Profar or Hernandez or Santader? No thanks. Kepler was cheap and short-term. The fact that they could go back to Marsh in LF and Rojas in CF (and give Wilson some looks against LHP) is actually a good thing if he bombs.

zambonir
Feb 16
allentown

Nick still wound up at 108 OPS+ despite his awful first two months. He was better than that post-to-post in 2023 despite being more streaky (112), when he also had 106 RBIs and 29 HRs. His OPS was no worse than .789 and as high as .858 the last four months of 2024. He is a poor defender but the Phillies don't care. He is still definitely an above-average hitter (by 8 points last year to be specific), and while he's no Alec Bohm, he has also repeatedly stepped up with RISP or with big home runs in big spots.

I doubt Koyo breaks camp in MLB but we'll certainly see him.