I don't think this was an offseason of denial at all. They really did not have any obvious holes to fill with free agents short of Juan Soto who would have fit anywhere. Their big move was probably Luzardo and they chose that over a Bohm move. We just did not have obvious holes and we chose to hang onto our big prospects (mainly Painter and Miller) who would have been needed in a game changing move.
We are not going to ever be the Mets with the ability to spend at will. I like balance and they chose that this time. This does not mean we won't make moves at the deadline of next offseason where there will likely be bigger holes to fill.
I feel good going into the season with 6 really good starters. We had 37 starts last year beyond the top 4 that were not opener games. The 7 Turnbull starts were the only ones really worth remembering. We should not see that this year and Painter could be a second half weapon.
I just don't see it as resembling that era at all. The playoffs are so different now. There's no way to build a team that is guaranteed not to lose in a short or even seven-game series. They haven't failed any more than the Braves have failed for the last three seasons, or the Dodgers for the the three before this one.
Whether they can actually keep pace the Dodgers and Mets is another question. They ultimately need to get younger and spend more. But I have no issue with the team they are putting out this year, and think the short-term fixes and emphasis on starting pitching is still the best way to win over the first 100 games.
The way I see it, in terms of the lineup, the Phillies were basically stuck. They have a bunch of expensive guys and/or guys who just aren't overly valuable and won't get you good quality in return (ie. Bohm). Hence, running it back with the lineup was probably Dombo's best option. They chose to double down on their strength, starting pitching by getting Luzardo. I was a little surprised that they did not deal Suarez after getting Luzardo since they are now arguably seven deep in the rotation with Wheeler, Nola, Sanchez, Suarez. Luzardo, Walker (can't completely write him off yet) and, eventually, Painter. Plus, unless you are the Yankees playing in Yankee Stadium with its cavernous right field, having three lefties in the rotation is not usually considered advantageous. But, I guess the issues with trying to trade Suarez are the fact that he would be a one-year rental (Boras client) and durability remains a question with him (his next injury-free season will be his first). Those two factors probably depressed his value.
And, it's all about getting to the Postseason. The Postseason is a crapshoot and the ultimate prize often goes to the team that simply gets hot in October.
Let's see if they actually get out of spring training with six pitchers (including Walker but not Painter) first. If they do - and Walker is serviceable - he can be traded.
The other difference between this team and the previous era is they haven't gone crazy with free agents or trades to try and keep it going/up the ante. Turner was the last FA to cost them compensation and big $; Nola was internal and Wheeler was an extension. And the deals have only been for relievers, depth SPs or controllable players (going back to the 2022 deadline). Part of the reason the last era fell apart was because of how many win-now trades and FA signings they made, even though most of them were for good players.
Anyway, it's three different seasons. First half, second half playoffs. This team is wildly better on paper than last year's team on Opening Day, even if nobody (odds makers, PECOTA) thinks it will be that much better, than people thought last year's was on paper let alone as good as the team actually was.
Was funny to me that DD said he kind of regretted not getting a 5th starter as they would have won more than 100 games, but would that have actually changed their playoff trajectory?
That was my point, the organization is stuck and have put themselves in that situation due to their decisions and actions.
They have committed to this roster as one who can win the WS when the last 3 seasons show it has not worked. Did they get close? Sure, but their competition has improved as they stand still and rearrange the deck chairs.
They needed to be more aggressive this off-season to fix the roster flaws and bring in different talent that will be more productive at certain positions. When the team fails short again this season, we'll see what they say and do, but I'm afraid that is the most likely outcome.
But how do you build a team that can win the World Series? Playoffs are still a small sample with a lot of randomness and luck. Did the Dodgers really "fix" their 2021-2023 approach or did they just finally catch the right break to go all the way? And MLB is riddled with teams and Hall of Fame players who came up short and small in them, until they didn't. Would replacing Alec Bohm actually have been guaranteed to make the team better in October? Replacing Nick Castellanos would almost surely make the team better overall but he had a 1.059 OPS in the Mets series, and a 1.796 OPS in the 2023 Braves series, or 2023 would have been just like 2024. Never mind what he played like next because that just proves the point. Had they not blown that series he might have still been World Series MVP, or the other two guys who came up small could have been.
But most of all,what did the Phillies miss out on that would have actually been good moves, both for the players they'd get and what they'd have to give up? Luzardo deal seems much more judicious than Crochet would have been. None of the FA outfielders besides Soto were that appealing, big or small, and Kepler was actually one of the few who meets the team's stated goal of adding a different type of hitter (whereas Santander or even trade option Robert are just more of the same). Not sure Bregman really was either.
The future of the Harper/Turner core is a huge concern, and so is what do after this season over the last two years of Wheeler's contract (as decisions are made on Schwarber, Realmuto and replacing Nick). But mostly running back a team that probably would have won 100 games doesn't seem like a bad thing. If they lose in the NLDS or NLCS again that's just baseball. A bigger concern would be if they have a 2025 like the Diamondbacks' 2024 (or the Braves for that matter, they were barely a playoff team).
Now, we can certainly have this conversation again on August 1. We know they will add a relief pitcher then if they have to, and the stakes are also high enough that if they need a position player nobody will be off the table (to get or give).
They know that they need changes, but they are at their max budget. It's the third highest budget in MLB and way beyond past Phillies teams. The farm wasn't producing much and they wanted to win now, so they built the team around costly FA. I think last year was the peak regular season wins for this cycle and likely the best Phillies team of this cycle. As in the 2008 cycle, the strongest team of the cycle was not the WS team this cycle. If we continue to follow the 2008 cycle, then this season will be the crash and burn year. I'm not expecting that, but I do expect the regular season win total to fall to 88-89. That will get them in the playoffs and if they get hot they can do well. Still, despite the third largest payroll, they are not among the top 3 teams in baseball.
It was a very weak off-season, but that reflects reality. This is not the time to bring in more costly FA.
They should definitely spend more money if they have to, but delaying that until the deadline makes sense. Then you're only dealing with prorated amounts, and/or the other team picks some of it up. Who knows, maybe they will even unload a few million of Walker's salary between now and then.
Did we think last year was a weak off-season? They lost the NLCS and did not sign or trade for a single prominent player (no relievers, no starting pitchers, one bench guy), The 2024 rotation was set with two guys who were either bad or unpitchable in the 2023 playoffs (Sanchez and Walker), one of whom became an All-Star and the other of whom flopped. Plus a couple of #6 fliers. And then, yes, the one thing we all thought was weak, Whit Merrifield, which didn't stop the team from playing to a 100+ win pace while he was here. Cristian Pache was still the 4th OF. The last five guys in the bullpen were Seranthony, Soto, Jose Ruiz, Luis Ortiz and Connor Brogdon, none of whom finished the year. Kerkering was on the IL.
Alvarado was one of our top three relievers and is our highest-paid reliever this year. Estevez was brought in because of his struggles and perhaps the same thing will happen again.
Last year was also a budget-strapped time. Then, as now, the team was not in position to plug a whole with a very expensive aging star. We go into this season basically a year older across the board and with the competition significantly stronger than last season. As I said above, anything can happen in the playoffs, but this team won't win as many regular season games as last year's team did. And we won't win the NL East.
They did re-sign Nola. That took him from $11M AAV to almost $26M.
I certainly wouldn't take the over on 95 wins or the NL East as a bettor, but who knows. This offense and rotation should still be good enough to make a run and it's by no means certain that the Mets are that much better or that it will all work out for the Braves. Loaded, expensive teams implode all the time, the Mets especially being famous for it. But, could be us too.
Phillies have been rather lucky health-wise through all of this, but also not entirely unaffected. They still won 95 despite injuries to Suarez and Turner and JT and Turnbull, as well as minor ones to Harper, Schwarber, Bohm and Stott (who played through it). It's easy to forget how big Harper and Segura's absence in 2022 seemed, or Harper's and Hoskins in 2023 too. It can always go either way.
Agree 100%, their actions put us in this situation and now we'll see how they handle the fallout. I also expect them to drop into the 80s win area and, while making the playoffs is likely, I do not expect them to get past the early rounds.
I was not advocating bringing in more costly FA. I was advocating being aggressive in trading the bloated contracts of underperforming and/or older players which would allow us to reload the talent base, free up salary space and address the roster inefficiencies.
Naturally, you cannot build a perfect team to win a WS, but I can guarantee that overpaying flawed and older players who then do not produce up to par is a good way to keep your team from winning a WS.
I do see parallels between now and 2009-12. In both cases, the FO has refused to move on from vet players who are starting to or continuing to decline in an attempt to keep "competing". In the earlier era, Amaro went so far that the trade value of most of the players was gone by the time he moved them along which compounded the damage to the organization.
We've just seen the Eagles and Howie Roseman build a winning roster by not only being aggressive in finding talent, but also knowing what players to let go, trade away or not sign in the first place. The Phillies have done better with the former under Middleton because finally we have ownership willing to spend, but still have little clue about the latter skill.
Spending money is great, but spending money strategically and wisely is the key. That puts them behind better run teams and hurts our chances to have parades like the Eagles will tomorrow.
There is also an implication here that "moving on" wasn't at significant prospect cost if the goal was actually to save money. It has been made clear based on reporting that they were listening on Castellanos the last two offseasons.
But Amaro re-signed Rollins after 2011 while also adding Papelbon (and Jim Thome!). Then, in 2012, he picked up Ruiz's option and signed Mike Adams and John Lannan (yikes!). And then in 2013, even after dumping Vic and Pence and firing Charlie, they still extended Utley and kept trying to win on 2014 (Marlon Byrd, AJ Burnett). And of course they were already stuck with Howard.
The turning point for moves like the above is coming up, but it hasn't come yet, and the current core is miles better than what the Phillies had in 2012. In the meantime I don't see how you really think they could productively move on from the players you might want to (Casty, Turner, Walker) in a way that makes the team better short or long-term. Ditto Schwarber and JT who are both essential this year and not otherwise an albatross beyond that if you don't want them to be.
Middleton was the guy who pushed for them to sign AJ Burnett (to make up for the Lee and Halladay declines), we'll see what lesson he took from that era. Certainly they wouldn't have traded Pence just to get under the tax under his ownership.
Well, there are a couple of weaker bats here (2024 OPS+), but generally not veterans with bloated contracts:
Player
OPS+
Harper
149
Schwarber
137
Turner
124
Bohm
117
Realmuto
109
Marsh
109
Castellanos
106
Sosa
104
Stott
89
Rojas
69
Yes, Castellanos isn't producing commensurately with his contract. Nor Taijuan Walker (who may well not even make the Opening Day rotation). But after that?
To quote Richie: "Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, Harry!"
6/26/22 - Harper to IL with fractured thumb, Moniak recalled 6/27/22 - Mercado claimed on waivers, Damon Jones to 60 Day IL 6/28/22 - Eflin to IL, Mercado activated 6/29/22 - Camargo to IL, Hall added to 40. McArthur to 60 day 7/1/22 - Falter promoted to Eflin's rotation spot. Mercado DFA
Essentially he was a waiver claim during the time in 2022 when everyone got hurt.
This is new. Realmuto in LF on off days? It kind of makes sense if DH is occupied and Realmuto is not going to put Bryce on the bench. The learning curve for LF has to be smaller than anywhere else and JT does still have the legs for it.
