Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[julio]

Keep in mind that Matt didn't fully explain WAR there. Every one of the five lines in his first paragraph is, on the face of it, a black box.

Now, there are formulas behind each of those black boxes - formulas about which analysts often disagree (which is why BR's WAR differs from FG's WAR, and presumably other folks' WAR as well). How are batting runs calculated (for each "flavor" of WAR)? How are baserunning, double play, fielding runs calculated? How is relative positional value calculated?

To really understand, you need to drill back to the actual counting statistics that drive all these calculations. And then you need to decide which of the more subjective raw statistics (i.e., things based on judgment calls by scorers, as opposed to objective events) you find more believable (again, this is one of the places where different versions of WAR disagree).

When all that is done, you need to remember that WAR - all its versions - is based on counting stats, not rate stats. WAR can tell you how many wins above replacement a player provided in a given season (subject to the uncertainties of its underlying counting stats), but it doesn't really tell you how efficient the player was, because it's not measured per plate appearance, or per inning in the field or on the mound. It can give you an idea what to expect in the (near) future from a player, but only if that player actually gets playing time equivalent to the season it's been calculated from.

Personally, I think that WAR tries to do too much - tries to reduce too many variables to a single number. In particular, I don't trust the defensive stats; there's relatively little agreement about which defensive measures are better, and (IMHO) enough year-to-year variability to suggest to me that something is just...broken.

I see WAR as kind of like the Standard Model of cosmology. It's useful, it can provide insight... but at the same time, it's clearly not "right." There are issues, things that are wrong, that we don't quite understand. So my approach is, "use it, but don't quite believe it."

[zambonir]

From what I've read they're not so determined as to accept that they either have to put in money to take very little for Bellinger. But either thing could be workable for the Phillies.

Also, what the heck are the Cubs doing?

[Matt_Winkelman]

I completely echo what julio says, that really is just breaking it into the components, but each component is more things. For instance I think BRef and FG run decently close on offense in the same way that OPS+ and wRC+ are different but generally are in the same range, but DRC+ which Baseball Prospectus uses for WARP is much different. Base running is similarly consistent between FG and B-Ref but BP uses much more situationally in their formula which I actually like (for instance stealing second with 2 outs is less valuable, but less risky, than stealing second with no outs). I don't really trust defensive metrics overall, I think they are improving, but they have flaws. I also have been secretly waging a war (lower case) on positional adjustments which I think are a blunt instrument which lacks nuance. This of course all is just on the hitting side and pitching gets much more divisive.

It is also important as was said that WAR is a counting stat and one that generally measures what happened as opposed to what should have happened, what will happen, or true talent. For example, Rhys Hoskins has a huge value hit in 2018 because he played LF and was terrible. He shouldn't have been playing LF, but was because the Phillies build a roster out of first basemen. That is a team building construct showing up in WAR as opposed to really his actual skill. All of this is a tool that is largely a good one for basic description in the same way that say ERA or OPS are, but it makes some assumptions (some that I think are wrong) and so it is not an end all be all stat (I also on a personal level think the hunt for the Holy Grail all encompassing stat of value is a stupid part of sports analytics that drive homogeneity and discriminates based on the model builder's preference.

[andyb]

What are your thoughts on RF vs LF as regards to Castellanos? I typically think the difference in the 2 positions is mostly about arm strength, so there is some logic to playing Nick in RF while Marsh (more speed but not a better arm) is in LF. Would they be better by flipping them? My guess is no.

[Matt_Winkelman]

If Nick feels more comfortable with the reads in right and coming in on balls the way he does than that outweighs the arm related differences between the two positions. You can mitigate a lot of the LF/RF thing with the positioning as well, as they already shade Rojas and Marsh towards him when they share the OF with him.

[Austinfan]

The other problem with defensive metrics is I don't think they include synergies.

It's not just runs allowed, it's additional PA added or avoided, since that means additional pitches (thrown or not thrown), which also means using lesser pitchers (more or less). Since most pitchers are on an implied pitch count, an extra PA or two could lead to 10 extra pitches or more (the "4 outs effect").

[biggsphils]

would you trade Bohm, Abel and Tate to Mariners for Castillo and Harry Ford, Ford would probably be ready when J.T.'s contract is up. Castillo would give you a solid # 3

[Austinfan]

Not Tait. He has the potential to be special, you get few cracks at "special," lots of shots at "good."
To hold you own at 17 in A ball is unusual.
And he's still filling out, catchers with plus power are rare.

[fish]

would you trade Bohm, Abel and Tate to Mariners for Castillo and Harry Ford, Ford would probably be ready when J.T.'s contract is up. Castillo would give you a solid # 3

I’d do that. I love the promise of Tait, but his pull heavy approach isn’t a sure thing. I think Ford is pretty close to a sure thing- he may not impact the ball for a few years but his overall game is strong enough to contribute in the big leagues after next year.

Someone spitballed an interesting one on the Phillies Podcast- Crawford and Caba for Alcantara. I’d do that one too- it may be a bit more likely the Marlins would do it too.

[ahb]

To me, there seems to be a very simple way forward that has almost no chance at happening:

Move Harper back to RF.
Sign a 1st baseman.
Platoon Marsh and Casty in LF.
Play Rojas in center.

Harper might veto it, but if you could convince him, it makes a lot of sense IMO,

There FA options at FB are much stronger than at OF.

Marsh is obviously a platoon player.

At this point in his career, Casty only brings value when he’s hitting lefties.

Yeah, it sucks paying the short half of a platoon $20M, but that’s a sunk cost. The $20M is already out the door, the question is what is the best way to use Casty. It’s this.

I’d prefer to have a better option in CF than Rojas but there aren’t really any others that I see. And Rojas makes no sense to me as a platoon player since his value comes from his defense (and he actually had a higher OPS vs righties, anyway. You need to save money elsewhere. And if we have a Marsh/Casty platoon in LF and we add a good 1B, we’d have enough offense to survive Rojas.

Say we signed Walker (assuming, for now, we kept Bohm and, yes, I’d platoon Stott and Sosa):

Vs Right:

Schwarber
Turner
Harper
Walker
Marsh
JT
Stott
Bohm
Rojas

Vs. Left

Turner
Harper
Walker
Bohm
Schwarber
Casty
JT
Sosa
Rojas

[julio]

You are assuming that Harper is physically able to return to RF, and play there daily without inflaming his back and winding up on the Injured List.

If they move him back to RF, and his back won't tolerate it... you've just put your best hitter on the Injured List (and not necessarily for a short-term stay).

These are people, not machines.

[zambonir]

I think Harper would love to move back to RF and I certainly think NIck as a platoon player makes sense in 2026 but can't see them doing that now, and it's not without its risk for Harper (including affecting his bat). And are the 1B free agents really that exciting? Better than some of the OFs maybe but still older/overpriced guys. I guess MLBTR's prediction for Walker isn't that extreme (three years $20 million).

In a perfect world you'd do all this stuff from a 24 year-old internal 1B option and then move Harper to DH, but there isn't one.

[Aquapong]

Long term, 1B is probably best to get the most out of Harper for the length of his deal. He’ll be here long after Casty is gone. Why not platoon Casty in Lf and get a better RF?

[Austinfan]

Harper seems happy at 1B, and he's becoming an above average fielder there (which has value, most 1B are defensive liabilities, which is why they're at 1B). He's below average in RF and will approach Castellanos bad in a couple years.

[biggsphils]

I understand St. Louis is trying to dump salary but I don'nt think Bohm gets you both of them

[zambonir]

Since Bowden wrote that the Cards have said they aren't going to trade Helsley. They will trade him at the deadline presumably.

Long term, 1B is probably best to get the most out of Harper for the length of his deal. He’ll be here long after Casty is gone. Why not platoon Casty in Lf and get a better RF?

Mostly because the Nick Castellanos of June 1 on was good enough to play every day (if not every day). But even more because they don't want to play Rojas in CF every day. So it doesn't really matter. In that scenario they still just need one OF regardless of whether he plays LF (with Marsh/Rojas in CF) or RF (if you demote Nick to LF platoon with Marsh). And if the options for LF are already thin enough that we think Marsh should maybe stay there in a platoon, they are even thinner for a new RF.

[bkeich]

We already have 3 players (Harper, Casty and Schwarber) who should never play another inning in the OF because they are Luzinski- Level bad at it. I really don’t think a plan that involves filling 1B with another player is going to work.

I think you might not be thinking of the horrific defense that would cause. What if Rojas gets hurt or just can’t hit? An OF of Harper, Castellanos and Marsh (CF) might be the worst in a long, long time.

[flyers19rw]

Cubs want to drop Bellinger or Suzuki. Would a deal for Bellinger and his $27M contract for Castellanos make sense if the Phillies found a way to even out the money between the two players?

[bkeich]

Cubs want to drop Bellinger or Suzuki. Would a deal for Bellinger and his $27M contract for Castellanos make sense if the Phillies found a way to even out the money between the two players?

The Phillies I think would be thrilled with that. Cubs will certainly get a better offer than Casty straight up, I fear we would have to throw too much prospect capital in to make that work. It is certainly worth trying.

Bellinger has had more bad seasons than good lately, but he is not the complete disaster that Castellanos is during the half of the game we are pitching.

[andyb]

I understand St. Louis is trying to dump salary but I don'nt think Bohm gets you both of them

There may be some face saving needed, but if the Phillies took the remainder of Arenado's contract they could certainly get Helsley too for Bohm. With the rest of his contract Arenado really has little value. That is why paying it down a bit would get a prospect like Nori in a deal. One year of Helsley for 2 years of a position player like Bohm would not be a good deal for the Phillies. Hence the Arenado piece with the big question being money.

Now for St. Louis it is not the greatest future looking deal either. They should probably trade Helsley for pure prospects and just dump Arenado also while paying half his deal.