Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[andyb]

Having Marsh play CF for a year platooning with Rojas is the option (not Stevenson who is a AAAA player). Nobody is blocking Crawford at all. If he can hit and play good CF defense he'll play. If the Phillies think his swing will limit his potential, they'll use him as trade bait.

[zambonir]

Both Marsh and Crawford are among the possible guys available in trade (along with Rojas and yes, Bohm and Suarez). In all cases has to be the right deal. And I would think any deal is going to be one position for another position, in which case you have to fill the hole you opened too (some more easily done than others).

But I agree Marsh is probably the CF not the LF, with Rojas on the bench/platoon. I don't really see Stevenson playing much. He has an option, so his 40-man spot is likely safe.

[Austinfan]

The problem with Marsh in CF is you weaken two spots, he's an elite fielding LF but an average CF.
So instead of elite fielders at LF and CF, you have two average guys.

[zambonir]

Agreed, but neither Marsh nor Rojas are truly everyday players, and that would also just be running it back, which we know is likely not the plan. In the big picture a new full-time LF and a Marsh Rojas/CF platoon is still a better OF than Marsh with someone like Hays or Wilson plus Rojas. And finding someone else to play CF with Rojas even harder (and likely to be average or worse at the plate if they're a good fielder or barely able to play CF if they can hit).

But that's also why Marsh could be available in a trade. Only he or Bohm (or Suarez) is really going to get you back a major leaguer in return and if it's Bohm then you still need more than just Sosa or the AAAA types in the 3B mix.

In the end Rojas is the guy the Phillies don't see as a starter, not Marsh. If they leave Marsh in LF that probably means they found a CF in trade.

[andyb]

Marsh does not necessarily weaken CF or LF though. The assumption is that a LF addition would hit better than Marsh and may not need to platoon. Then the second assumption is that Marsh would hit better than anyone else we could put in CF against RHP. So you improve offense in CF at the expense of defense (while improving the offense in LF). This could potentially improve 2 positions and with a platoon in CF you have options for late inning defense where Marsh could shift over to LF.

We got really lousy offense out of CF and Marsh did not hit like you would want from an ideal LF. Moving Marsh does not create problems. Whether it improves on the current situation depends on who you are able to add in LF (or CF).

[VoteForKalas]

Has Bohm ever played in the OF? Do folks think he could adapt to LF?

I ask because one rumor I've heard is signing Adames from the Brewers who has said in the right situation he would play 2B or 3B. He is normally a SS, but not sure we want to shift Turner around.

Adames would be IMO the type of bat we should consider adding to our lineup.

[flyers19rw]

Marsh is not a major league level LF. His splits are bad - against lhp he’s below the Mendoza line with a terrible K rate. Even his performance against rhp is nothing to brag about. Mediocre but nothing outstanding. Home/away splits again are awful.
Acquiring him at the time was basically a desperation move by DD to find someone who could handle CF. Now it’s known that he can’t handle that position. He was not brought in here to be a LF. The trade is a shame since the Phillies gave up a quality everyday player at a premium position in the deal. I understand that JT blocked O’Hoppe. Still LOH should have brought back a better return than a player such as Marsh.

[zambonir]

People always used to say Bohm was not athletic enough, and too tall, to play LF, though I don't see why the latter would be an issue, or why the bar for the former is that high given who else has played there historically (to say nothing of our current RF).

But then it also comes back to the question of whether he'd actually be good enough there, as with 1B. Bat's not big enough to compensate for poor defense, maybe not even big enough for LF in general if he never has another month like last April. And then you have similar issue in RF already.

Marsh still put up 3.1 WAR last year in 476 PAs; Bohm put up 3.0 in 606. Marsh's OPS+ was also higher than Nick's. It's ludicrous to say he's not good, which is not the same thing as saying the Phillies can't upgrade/change things up. If you move Marsh to CF he will lose some defensive WAR but would still have a higher WAR than Rojas there, or Casty, or most options in LF other than the most expensive FAs.

[Jazzhead]

t could be argued that the Phils have several DHs, they just choose to treat them as fielders.

I agree. Casty and Schwarber on the same roster, plus Harper's immovability from first, crimps the Phils options. That's why I continue to root for Rojas to be successful, as his speed and range in the outfield helps to obscure this problem.

[allentown]

Agreed, but neither Marsh nor Rojas are truly everyday players, and that would also just be running it back,

I could not disagree more strongly. "Running it back" as a negative reference to Marsh is just plain silly. Why would I not want to bring back a guy with a 3.1 WAR last year and 3.4 WAR the year before? He may not play every day, but he did earn those WARs with over 470 AB each of the past two seasons. He stole 19 bases last season with only 3 CS. He's a plus defender, decent OBP last season, very good in 2023. He really doesn't have negatives. Rojas is only 23. Off-year with a bat for him but excellent CF D and at least a positive WAR, and he's cheap. To trade him is to trade low. I wouldn't do that. Also, he's cheap. Crawford isn't up this year. We still need Rojas.

Full-time starter isn't necessarily a plus. Castellanos is a case in point. Started every game and achieved only about the same WAR as Rojas (0.8). He's the guy who needs to lose ABs.

It is time the Phillies run less of a country club for older vets. Casty may want to get every possible AB in every game, but that is not best for the team. And allowing Harper to surround himself with age-peer friends seems not to be working.

[Austinfan]

People have ridiculous expectations.
So you want to upgrade over Marsh in LF?
What will it cost to buy/trade for a 3+ WAR LF?
11 LF who were 3+ WAR, 7 RF (FG). That's a pretty small population.

Rojas was 1.2 WAR in 363 PA, so full season would be 2+..
Marsh was 2.4 WAR in 476 PA.
Castellanos is the obvious upgrade. But that ain't happening with 2 years left on his deal.
Merrifield was the worst player on the team last year.

How much is a marginal improvement in LF/CF worth?
I'd invest in the bullpen myself. Maybe to dump Walker's contract and replace him with a better swing pitcher (if Painter comes up, you're looking at someone as insurance for him and Ranger and to give them starts off).

[zambonir]

Well, I'm not really stating my opinion, just what I think the Phillies believe - and what they already have been doing. I have no issue with either player, but DD has publicly stated they are likely to make a change in the outfield and he already set that path (playing Rojas less and Marsh in CF more) in the second half of last season too.

Personally I would have just played Marsh and Rojas every day and lived with both their batting issues. I certainly wouldn't have played Hays against RHP. Marsh is never going to get better against LHP without facing them, and it's the lesser number of ABs. Rojas also never gets better without playing regularly.

I agree with you about Casty too but changing his role or playing time seems like the third most likely thing to happen, and his bat is still pretty darn strong when you take away his slow start. Can he avoid that or even repeat his consistent .800 OPS performance from last June on? Maybe, maybe not.

Perfect world, they find a way to trade Casty and just buy a new OF. Even if they can't offload much of Nick's salary they're signaling they are going to bust past the third threshold any way, in which case it doesn't matter. But if he's still on the team, merely giving him a day or two off every week isn't enough to actually change the outfield mix.

[mdougherty12]

Has Bohm ever played in the OF? Do folks think he could adapt to LF?

Bohm is a really slow runner at this point. He's the slowest Phillie not named Kyle Schwarber, and he's significantly closer to Schwarber than the next slowest players (Castellanos and Harper).

[fish]

Nolan Arrenado for Castellanos? Arenado needs some of his contract eaten, granted that’s probably a sideways move unappealing to the Cardinals unless they get more creative.

[EDmuch]

The CF in 2026 is going to be Crawford. And that could be the case by the All-Star game in 2025. so all the talk about moving Marsh to CF. is really beside the point.And when he arrives I suspect that Crawford will also lead off. I could see Schwarber moved to batting 5th. So what is really needed is a RH between Schwarber & Harper.

[zambonir]

If that's really true they should just trade Rojas, find a new LF, and move on from Marsh (or give him RF) next year. But I don't really think Crawford is at all inevitable yet - and especially not guaranteed to be a good enough hitter to be at the top of a major league order. Even if he's a pure small ball/high-OBP guy there's no guarantee he can hit .300 in MLB or be any better than Turner or Marsh in OBP and OPS, let alone Schwarber (not that I think Schwarber should lead off indefinitely, but he's also not signed after this season).

Why has Crawford fallen in the BA rankings, incidentally, or is more than others passed him?

At this time last year Rojas was supposed to be in CF winning Gold Gloves for the next five season and Crawford was gonna have to hit more to justify playing a corner. You just never know.

[Austinfan]

I'm sure DD will look at every option, but like last summer showed, he's also protective of the farm system, he ended up trading one second tier prospect and none of his blue chips in a year where they were focused on getting back to the WS.

Tells me:
1) he won't panic and make a move just to make a move
2) he won't trade a top prospect unless he's getting a controlled young talent in return.

I think where he'd like to upgrade is the bench, Merrifield was an attempt but a really bad choice.
Ideally a RH hitter with power who can play a decent LF but also other positions.
The AAA plus guys other than Wilson, didn't show much, Clemons, Stevenson, etc.

[zambonir]

Where have all the star center fielders gone? ‘Obvious’ position to fill...

Maybe Brandon Marsh will be standing in center field when the Phillies begin next season at Nationals Park in Washington. Or maybe it will be Johan Rojas.

_But would you be surprised if it’s neither?
(snip)

“We’re in a position where, logically, [outfield] is the one spot, positional player-wise, that you’re going to look to upgrade in that regard,” Dombrowski said this week at the general managers’ meetings in San Antonio, Texas. “We still have some time to make decisions on what we’re going to do. But that’s the logical area for us.”

An upgrade in the Phillies outfield is an ‘obvious way’ they can improve, Dave...

Dombrowski said he considers Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh two pieces of the outfield puzzle that are “settled” but conceded there is room for improvement there, too.

“Is Marsh going to hit a lefty well enough?” Dombrowski said. “We think he will, but he still needs to do it.”

[Austinfan]

I don't think it's that easy to find an upgrade over Rojas, if he played full time he'd be 2+ WAR.
Good luck finding a better CF who's available.
Most are either below average fielders (not something you want with Castellanos in RF) or below average hitters - CF with RC+ > 100 who are average or above fielders are scarce and probably unattainable.

To me, the best best is to work with Rojas and keep developing OFs to challenge him. Crawfirdm Boyd, Nori, Buckholdere, Spikerman, Mathison - they obviously value prospects who might stay in CF.
A top fielding CF reduces the demands on corner OFs and allows you to play offense first types.

[zambonir]

Yeah, the article also makes this key point:

the leaguewide OPS in center field this season plummeted to .697, the second-lowest mark since 1989 and seventh-lowest since 1912. In 2024, the only positions that produced a lower OPS were catcher and second base.

And Robert, the most logical trade target, was worse than that.

But, I don't think the Phillies are trying to upgrade Rojas. They are trying to upgrade Marsh in LF while playing Marsh and Rojas in CF.

But I do wonder: do we actually have any stats/documentation that Rojas helped compensate for Castellanos, or that any of the other guys who played CF didn't it?