Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[Austinfan]

Sure hope their Doctors know their stuff if they're paying $7.75M coming off an elbow injury.
That's not that far what he'd cost if healthy ($10-12M?).

Wonder if there's an out if he comes up lame?

[Matt_Winkelman]

Their odds will probably be low because of the division competition, but back of the napkin right now I would probably power rank teams as

Dodgers
Mets, Phillies, Braves (Braves record might be down again, but if Strider and Acuna are back late they will be dangerous)
Padres
Yankees, Orioles

So the answer is, a more serious chance than 26 other teams. They absolute could beat any of those other teams in a postseason series.

[flyers19rw]

Sometimes lines get redrawn for you. The Soto signing did that.

[zambonir]

The chase issues were overstated. Mets chased more than Phillies in that series even. They are still very much a contender and it doesn't matter if they are 6th, 4th or 2nd. Though you do go bigger if you think it's important to in the division and/or the NL, even if the Dodgers were the first team of three to turn that into a ring.

Sometimes lines get redrawn for you. The Soto signing did that.

Lauber's column today saying they won't go over happened after the Soto signing. I don't know that I agree with the approach, and for sure, things can change. But adding Fried (or any pitcher) still only makes you better if Ranger gets you something significant too.

[zambonir]

I'm sure the same doctors who thought Walker was a better risk than Eflin will get this right.

I wonder if that number if actually guaranteed? Maybe it's more like $4-5 million with innings and games finished incentives. Also there could be an option/buyout?

[allentown]

Does anyone here think the Phillies have a serious chance of winning the World Series in 2025?

It depends upon how you define "serious chance". There is nothing the Phillies can do this off-season to be as good as the Dodgers. Yet, that doesn't mean they can't get to and win the WS. The 2008 team, which won the WS, wasn't the best NL team and was also inferior to the Phillies own 2009, 2010, and 2011 teams. The 2022 Phillies reached the WS but were at best the third best NL team that year. The Phillies 2023 and 2024 teams were improved but performed progressively worse in post-season. Any team that reaches post-season, has a realistic chance of reaching and winning the WS. It seems that the WS is seldom won, in recent years, by the best team in baseball. The Phillies, in particular, have had little success in achieving a championship by loading up a team which had done well and reached the WS or League Championship the prior year More typically downhill from there. The Phillies could not upgrade this winter and still have at least as good a chance of reaching/winning the WS as the 2008 and 2022 teams did. Or, they could miss the playoffs, as the 2012 team did. Looking to give an aging team one last chance and edge seems iffy and a strong possibility to hobble the team's intermediate future.

[flyers19rw]

Wheeler and Nola aren’t getting any younger. The organization will need established pitching to replace them in two or so years. Signing a guy like Fried would keep the back of the rotation strong when those two guys step aside as the leaders. Defense and pitching wins and you can never have enough pitching.

[Docs]

Phillies reported to have signed Romano to a one year deal - finally something to talk about

[zambonir]

Defense and pitching wins and you can never have enough pitching.

Agree, but pitching is still the strength of this club. And hitting no longer is. A better use of the $ maybe given the OF choices are underwhelming, but everything you say about Fried would be true of Crochet or Logan Gilbert or Suarez. Fried's had his own issues and he's not that much younger than Nola.

[allentown]

Wheeler and Nola aren’t getting any younger. The organization will need established pitching to replace them in two or so years.

The loss/decline/injury of Wheeler/Nola would devastate the Phillies. Together they pitched 399 IP last season and their combined W-L was 15 games above 0.500. That is the difference between winning the NL East and a sub-.500 team. There aren't a lot of 200 IP/years guys is MLB these days. The loss of these two puts a big added load on the rest of the pitching staff.

[zambonir]

And it's to Dombrowski's credit that he's clearly thinking about it, always. He signed Sanchez and he's already thinking about how to replace Suarez, who turns 30 this year himself. In a perfect world you have a rotation of Nola, Wheeler, Sanchez, Painter and Crochet or Sasaki (for instance) next year. Maybe Abel's in the mix. But if it doesn't fall together like that, they'll be more ready/able to write a big check to a FA in '26 or '27.

[zambonir]

They clearly believe in this guy.

4:13pm: Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports (on X) that Romano is actually guaranteed $8.5MM. He’d unlock an additional $500K in incentives if he reaches 60 innings pitched.

Phillies To Sign Jordan Romano

[Austinfan]

Boy, they'd better have good doctors.
I mean it's one thing to bet on him with an incentive laden deal, but $8.5M guaranteed
Well, he's still likely to be more valuable than Merrifield if he lasts 20 innings.

[flyers19rw]

This is why spending the money for Fried makes sense. Swapping out quality players for an iffy Crochet doesn’t do it for me. Neither does swapping out quality young players in an overpay for a Seattle SP. The Phillies system is not deep enough to afford the loss of young talent.

[fish]

Boy, they'd better have good doctors.
I mean it's one thing to bet on him with an incentive laden deal, but $8.5M guaranteed

Sure seems like the blue jays doctors must have had their concerns to let their closer walk for 8 million.

[andyb]

Sure seems like the blue jays doctors must have had their concerns to let their closer walk for 8 million.

Maybe. But possible this is also just a contract a team with a $280 million payroll can afford and a team that wants to get under $200 million cannot. He probably was not tradeable until he proved he was healthy, so the risk for a team that wants to cut salary was too high.

[zambonir]

They would seem to really rate his closing experience too, something they always seem to go back and forth on. I wonder if he's agreed to the more flexible approach and Estevez didn't want that.

If nothing else, this was the Austins Hays money.

[saycheese]

So Max Fried will pitch at age 31 next year (Turns 31 in Jan.) . He is six months younger than Nola. He is looking for 40 mill per year. Where your next leaders need to come from are guys like Andrew Painter and Christopher Sanchez. Also the reason why they are pushing for Crochet.

[zambonir]

And that 40 million would be almost 80 this year.

[zambonir]

I saw a longer version of DD's quote on PHLY where he mentioned the medicals were good, as was video of him throwing recently.

Phils add All-Star closer Romano on 1-year deal

Romano passed his physical on Monday in Philadelphia. Dombrowski said he is already throwing in the mid-90s.

“He’s one of the best back-end, high-leverage guys in baseball,” he said....

Asked if he will be the team’s closer in 2025, Phillies manager Rob Thomson said, “There were no promises to him, other than [high] leverage. So I think we utilize our bullpen as of right now just the way we have been.”...

“We feel comfortable where we are,” Dombrowski said about the bullpen. “I’m not saying we won’t add. I never know what’s going to go ... I never know that. ... If we feel we can help our club in other ways, if there’s something out there that makes us so much better, we’re still open to that. But we feel good where we are in our bullpen.”