Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[zambonir]

If that's really true they should just trade Rojas, find a new LF, and move on from Marsh (or give him RF) next year. But I don't really think Crawford is at all inevitable yet - and especially not guaranteed to be a good enough hitter to be at the top of a major league order. Even if he's a pure small ball/high-OBP guy there's no guarantee he can hit .300 in MLB or be any better than Turner or Marsh in OBP and OPS, let alone Schwarber (not that I think Schwarber should lead off indefinitely, but he's also not signed after this season).

Why has Crawford fallen in the BA rankings, incidentally, or is more than others passed him?

At this time last year Rojas was supposed to be in CF winning Gold Gloves for the next five season and Crawford was gonna have to hit more to justify playing a corner. You just never know.

[Austinfan]

I'm sure DD will look at every option, but like last summer showed, he's also protective of the farm system, he ended up trading one second tier prospect and none of his blue chips in a year where they were focused on getting back to the WS.

Tells me:
1) he won't panic and make a move just to make a move
2) he won't trade a top prospect unless he's getting a controlled young talent in return.

I think where he'd like to upgrade is the bench, Merrifield was an attempt but a really bad choice.
Ideally a RH hitter with power who can play a decent LF but also other positions.
The AAA plus guys other than Wilson, didn't show much, Clemons, Stevenson, etc.

[zambonir]

Where have all the star center fielders gone? ‘Obvious’ position to fill...

Maybe Brandon Marsh will be standing in center field when the Phillies begin next season at Nationals Park in Washington. Or maybe it will be Johan Rojas.

_But would you be surprised if it’s neither?
(snip)

“We’re in a position where, logically, [outfield] is the one spot, positional player-wise, that you’re going to look to upgrade in that regard,” Dombrowski said this week at the general managers’ meetings in San Antonio, Texas. “We still have some time to make decisions on what we’re going to do. But that’s the logical area for us.”

An upgrade in the Phillies outfield is an ‘obvious way’ they can improve, Dave...

Dombrowski said he considers Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh two pieces of the outfield puzzle that are “settled” but conceded there is room for improvement there, too.

“Is Marsh going to hit a lefty well enough?” Dombrowski said. “We think he will, but he still needs to do it.”

[Austinfan]

I don't think it's that easy to find an upgrade over Rojas, if he played full time he'd be 2+ WAR.
Good luck finding a better CF who's available.
Most are either below average fielders (not something you want with Castellanos in RF) or below average hitters - CF with RC+ > 100 who are average or above fielders are scarce and probably unattainable.

To me, the best best is to work with Rojas and keep developing OFs to challenge him. Crawfirdm Boyd, Nori, Buckholdere, Spikerman, Mathison - they obviously value prospects who might stay in CF.
A top fielding CF reduces the demands on corner OFs and allows you to play offense first types.

[zambonir]

Yeah, the article also makes this key point:

the leaguewide OPS in center field this season plummeted to .697, the second-lowest mark since 1989 and seventh-lowest since 1912. In 2024, the only positions that produced a lower OPS were catcher and second base.

And Robert, the most logical trade target, was worse than that.

But, I don't think the Phillies are trying to upgrade Rojas. They are trying to upgrade Marsh in LF while playing Marsh and Rojas in CF.

But I do wonder: do we actually have any stats/documentation that Rojas helped compensate for Castellanos, or that any of the other guys who played CF didn't it?

[Austinfan]

I'm sure they most have tracking stats, I'd presume with Rojas in CF Castellanos could play a couple steps closer to the line. I go back to Luzinski and Maddox.

[el-pietro]

This is probably more of a MLB wild post but Roki Sasaki is coming over.

Japanese star RHP Sasaki to be posted to MLB

Dodgers big favourites you'd assume but Phillies will definitely make an offer

[Austinfan]

All a matter of his preference, since his contract is limited by MLB rules.

[andyb]

I wondered with Ohtani if there would be a handshake agreement to negotiate a long term deal after his first season (maybe with the caveat that the season has to go well). The Angels never signed Ohtani long term, but what is there to stop a deal for any player after their first year? Tatis got 14 years and $340 million after his 2nd year. Wander Franco got 11/182 after his first year which was a half season. That contract may end up a disaster with his legal troubles, but the main point is that it was offered and he signed it.

The international bonus really does not matter here. Whether it is $3 million or $7 million I imagine a player like Sasaki will get many times that money in endorsements. The Phillies should roll out the red carper here because this is the only player out there that can be acquired at the All Star level that will not blow up the current payroll. And will cost no prospects.

[zambonir]

Still a hard race for the Phillies to win but obviously their recent moves (courting Yamamoto, hiring Chung and more Asian scouts) are an attempt to catch up.

I wonder how much endorsement value the team choice has for the player (i.e. Dodgers, Yankees, even Mariners have bigger fan bases and brand equity).

[dcsman]

Just like Juan Soto prefers to stay on the east coast, Sasaki probably prefers to play on the west coast. Either would be nice acquisitions but I just don't think they are very realistic.

[andyb]

I'd pitch Sasaki that the Phillies are the best organization today for starting pitchers. We believe in them. We develop and nurture them. We trust them to go deep in games if they earn it. Not every organization does that. Wheeler and Nola and Sanchez and Suarez and Sasaki could be a historic, dominant staff. The money and endorsements will come with success.

Not sure the pitch would work, but it could be a good one. LA and NY will always have more money, but we can get close.

[zambonir]

I don't entirely understand how a team can "win" the bidding in terms of $. Backdoor future promises? Maxing out your int'l on just him? Or is it really all about selling a culture and a vision?

[Austinfan]

I thnk the primary endorsement value would be in Japan.

[zambonir]

Obviously it is in Japan but I am sure a guy in a Dodgers uniform is worth more to Coca-Cola Japan or Mizuno than a guy in a Milwaukee uniform. Both currently and due to the history

[zambonir]

Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said this week that he visited Japan in September to watch Sasaki. Phillies assistant general manager Jorge Velandia makes multiple trips to Japan per year. But it’s unclear if other members of the team’s front office attended a Sasaki start.

But the Phillies have attempted to broaden their presence in the Far East. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski charged Velandia with improving the organization’s reach. The Phillies hired Tora Otsuka, son of former major league pitcher Akinori Otsuka, as a second full-time scout based in Japan, joining veteran scout Koji Takahashi.

World-class pitcher Roki Sasaki to be posted to MLB, impacting free-agent...

[Austinfan]

Plus it's probably a lot easier to watch West Coast than East Coast games in Japan.

[zambonir]

I used to think this too, but it's not really the case. A 7pm Dodgers game is at noon Tokyo time. A 7pm Phillies game is at 9am. I guess the whole country was known to take lunch breaks to watch Nomo or Ichirio.

A 1pm game in LA would be at 6am rather than 3am like a NY game but still hardly ideal, or atttractive to TV.

Flight times for friends/family (or yourself) would be more common consideration. Also true for spring training/off-season work.

[andyb]

Well, at least we appear to be in the game:

The Roki Sasaki MLB sweepstakes: Teams to watch and what could influence his...

The Philadelphia Phillies, according to a league source, remain another team worth watching in the sweepstakes. Last winter, team president Dave Dombrowski aggressively pursued Yamamoto in free agency, a signal of the franchise’s concerted efforts to build up a presence in the Pacific Rim.

I thought the Yamamoto offer was more of a signal to the rest of the league. We are still unlikely to be considered here, but the main thing is that this is not all about money. It is about comfort and fit and market (and maybe handshake promises for money in the future).

[Austinfan]

It's also marketing to the Japanese player market.

We may not be able to land the first tier guys, but we'll become more attractive to the second tier guys who probably would have no idea who the Phillies are until we started getting into these bidding contests.