Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

[el-pietro]

I think the As are trying to reach a salary minimum to avoid a grievance from the MLBPA. Is there a deal to be done with them for Walker?

[zambonir]

Them and the Marlins both. Any poor, non-contending team would be smart to find a way really, if the Phillies pick up half his salary and then he bounces back, you could trade him at the deadline. But every team also knows he could wind up being a FA they could have for $800K too.

[nycphils]

If they want someone to pick up Walker, they are going to need to pay much more than half…the Phils should be willing to pay all but $1-2m for each of the two remaining seasons - and it would be worth it to save up to $4m over the next two years.

[zambonir]

Or maybe they don't see Ross as starter depth at all. Once he stopped last year he never went back.

He became one of Milwaukee's most reliable arms down the stretch, putting up a 1.67 ERA over 15 relief outings. He had 27 strikeouts in 27 innings as a reliever after striking out 39 in 47 innings as a starter.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/joe-ross-free-agent-contract-with-phillies

[Austinfan]

He was hitting 94.8, the highest of his career, how much is SP v RP I don't know.
But it suggests his arm is back.
The key for him making a jump is improving his change-up, right now 2 and 4 seamer, slider, but none is a plus pitch. If they could improve his change it would give him a weapon against LH hitters.

[Austinfan]

They should be doing this anyway, save your cap room for big acquisitions, don't throw $8M at players like Merrifield.

[zambonir]

$4 million for Ross.

It sounds like the Phillies still intend to keep Walker, though that could certainly change. If he flops, he won't have even that "we'll pick up a few million" trade value, and will just be DFA'ed.

If he bounces back, you could still get the 50% trade, maybe even sweeten it with a prospect if the cost savings allows you to take on something you really want at the deadline. But I just don't see how he'll get the chance to pitch enough to rebuild that value as an 8th reliever or 6th starter. Spring training certainly won't be enough. But I guess you never know, especially with Painter now basically ruled out for the first half of the season. Walker would still be one injury away from the rotation if he's on the 26-man roster to begin with (and if he's not, he's probably not in the organization).

Phillies devise pitching plan for Andrew Painter, agree to a one-year deal with...

[andyb]

I was a little surprised they added Ross, though prior to the Luzardo trade it definitely would have made sense. Good value at $4 million if he only stays in the bullpen. Another quality voice in the clubhouse too.

I think we just blew through that $301 million threshold. Makes it easy to do the low volume Painter plan as well. I think they have always targeted 100-120 innings for Painter max and this would let them do extended Spring, 20 in the minors, and the rest starting at the All Star break with some flexibility based upon need.

[zambonir]

They may still have a plan to get back under that threshold if they want. It doesn't become official until the end of the season anyway. Maybe they trade Alvarado. Maybe they trade Ranger at the deadline. Maybe they get something going with Walker. I know this team still can't afford to give away prospects, but prospects also have a pretty fixed range of monetary value - if you could save $18 million in actual cash (50% of his remaining deal) and an additional chunk of change in penalties while also adding something you really need at the deadline (a power bat or another relief arm presumably), you do it.

[zambonir]

Jose Cuas loses his roster spot to Ross.

And:

The Phillies signed several players to minor league contracts, including three pitchers with major-league experience: lefty Nick Vespi and right-handers Joel Kuhnel and Nabil Crismatt.

[Matt_Winkelman]

There is no real advantage to ducking under the threshold outside of saving money. $281M was the draft pick penalty and then money 281 to 301 was taxed at 95% and 301+ is taxed at 110%. It essentially makes the line a sort of soft barrier where exceeding it just is more expensive. That does mean that every million saved on trading Walker is two million saved in cash, but there isn’t a huge deal to being a couple million above the line vs a million below it.

[Austinfan]

They've done enough. By replacing Walker/Phillips with Luzardo/Painter they saved the bullpen 30-60 IP plus added 5 wins over last season, so a regression would be from a 100 win baseline. That's a nice cushion going into the season.

The biggest worry is the lack of SS prospects in the system, only Rincon is viable, and he's got a lot of risk. Saliltban is already at 2B.
Who is their 2025 LA target?
They're going to have to add a couple SS prospects the next year or two, Turner ain't staying there indefinitely and Miller will probably lose too much range as he fills out to stay there past 25 or so.

[zambonir]

Yeah it would only matter at the deadline if they wanted to take on some money. But they do seem to want to save money!

[andyb]

I guess the only other thing they might do is bring in somebody better than Wilson, though if they want Kepler to play most of the time I assume they are good with Wilson and/or Clemens in that role. They don't seem to want to bring in another right handed CF to let Rojas play in AAA but I suppose that is possible too for minor signings (likely AAAA players without much of a guarantee).

[BostonRoss]

$4 million for Ross.

I wish

[bkeich]

They've done enough. By replacing Walker/Phillips with Luzardo/Painter they saved the bullpen 30-60 IP plus added 5 wins over last season, so a regression would be from a 100 win baseline. That's a nice cushion going into the season.

The biggest worry is the lack of SS prospects in the system, only Rincon is viable, and he's got a lot of risk. Saliltban is already at 2B.
Who is their 2025 LA target?
They're going to have to add a couple SS prospects the next year or two, Turner ain't staying there indefinitely and Miller will probably lose too much range as he fills out to stay there past 25 or so.

I wonder if the future SS isn’t already playing (Stott). Eventually he will become expensive, but he may not be very expensive and I think he is probably already the best defensive SS on the team. They might just need a 2B prospect, which is a lot easier to fulfill.

[phillychuck]

The system has quite a few decent SS prospects, even minus Caba. All those guys except maybe Miller could shift to 2B if that's the direction they want to go. Miller is more likely to stay at SS or move to 3B.

[zambonir]

Stott is only barely viewed as a good enough SS now (or even when they drafted him). He did well when they put him there but if he was truly great they would not have been so eager to get Turner. Obviously he's still better than Turner, but he's a better 2B, and won't be right for SS as he gets to the wrong side of the age curve (when they'll also have to decide whether to keep him).

Next SS is probably just a short-term free agent if it's not Miller.

[phillychuck]

If Miller develops Turner will hand the position directly to Miller. If Miller doesn't develop, they need to hope one of the other young guys steps up. Rincon is a great fielder, can he learn to hit a bit more? Saltiban can probably hit, but is he more of a 2B? Farquhar is also probably more of a 2B, and he sort of came out of nowhere.

Trading Caba probably indicates they are betting on Miller.

[zambonir]

Well we just hope Miller develops somewhere. He could still be a 2B. He could still be a 3B. He could be great defensively at either of those spots and more than good enough offensively without necessarily being right at SS.

I still think the Phillies can't afford to cut Schwarber loose but it would sure be a lot easier to have that DH spot open. I suppose it would just go to Casty for one year anyway but after that it could truly revolve. And they are still probably going to need a FA corner OF.