I just wish he showed more for the price. Even when he was good (2 seasons), he missed time. If we are aiming to get 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 era than I think we MAY have gotten it. The problem is, that isn’t really worth Caba.
Ranger had a 5.62 ERA in eight second-half starts last year while providing only 36.2 innings. Luzardo had a 5.00 in 12 first-half starts and 66.2 innings. The only difference is Ranger was great and healthy in the first half whereas Luzardo was already hurt in April and shut down by June. But they were comparable guys in '22 and '23.
I think 20 starts of 3.50-4.00 ERA is still worth a heck of lot. Especially if you think a 5th starter (or 4th playoff starter) is important. I still don't know that I do, but we saw what the worse-case could be with that last year.
The question really is the chance of that (signs that he can do it, signs he can’t) worth our #6 prospect. Especially since he won’t be cheap in those 2 arbitration years after this.
I just see too much bad in his history, equal numbers of bad and good seasons. Seems like if this is what we wanted it must have been available in free agency.
Only one arbitration year after this one. If he pitches well for us he'll get $10 million and be an insane bargain. If he's just okay he'll still be worth the $8 million.
It clearly wasn't available in free agency. You'd be paying someone Taijuan money.
IMHO, Ranger to the pen makes some sense because the Phis' pen needs improvement. Ranger was dominant the first half then never the same last season. Suggests he's not strong enough to last the whole season as a starter. So if he's dominant pitching less, put him in the pen. He could close after 6. Might be really good for Ranger and the team.
So Ranger to the pen and Walker back to the rotation?
Ranger's either gonna start or get traded, and no, neither he nor Scott Boras would be on board with a bullpen move even if it was a good idea.
They'll still add another arm for the pen, no reason not to now that the threshold is pretty much a done deal. Just a question of whether it's a $4 million type guy or if they are willing to pay double (plus 10%) for something bigger. Won't be anyone worthy of a multi-year deal though IMO.
Which makes sense given that their remaining needs on offense are minor and can be filled internally (Marchan, Wilson). As for the pitching, it may be in for a penny, in for a pound. If the opportunity presents itself to sign a short-term deal with a quality reliever, I think they'll pull the trigger and pay the luxury tax,
There's no reason they have to trade Ranger now. Neither of them is a lock to be healthy all season given their histories. Painter is waiting in the wings, but will likely have a short leash with IP and isn't a lock for '25. They can wait for the right deal if it materializes and trade from the cat bird's seat.
I wonder if Hoffman would take 2/24. I would rather do that then give up Caba for a guy with a worst track record the last couple years.
He has a bad track record for one year. Heck he has a longer track record than Sanchez (and Crochet. And Hoffman for that matter, since it's still possible he's going to start again).
Giving up Caba for him was also the final confirmation that Ranger won't be here next year.
Well, 2021 was also terrible. So 2 above average and 2 terrible years, and injuries in 3 of the 4 years enough that he missed 1/3 to 1/2 of the seasons. That isn’t awful, but it isn’t good either.
He is at 103 ERA+, that doesn’t sound good to me, that is slightly better than average. When you factor in that the most recent year was terrible, well, I would just want more for a top prospect.
I would rather have Hoffman, keep Caba, have a guy with 2 very good seasons the last two (bad before) and a guy that you greatly suspect can succeed in the bullpen if nothing else. But I don’t know that Hoffman would take 2/24, but he very well might with a promise that he can at least start the season in the rotation.
Either way, it is funny dealing with the Marlins. They don’t EVER seem to be interested in doing anything except being good in 5 years.
Just odd that this was the Expos that constantly sold their good players for prospects. The Marlins are no doubt looking at another 100 loss season after briefly going up in the standings 2 years ago.
I like Caba, but I'm not sure he's a sure thing.His fielding is, but his hitting could keep him as a defensive substitute if it doesn't dramatically improve the next few years.
Caba has speed, has very good plate discipline, but is really weak. How much strength he can add (see some other scrawny LA IFs we've had) probably determines his upside. .479 OPS in Clearwater due to low BABIP, "normal" BABIP would have results in more like .660 OPS - but how much was BABIP due to complete lack of power?
Whereas with Tait, the plate discipline could be improved, but he held his own in low A at 17, posting a .780 OPS.
Overall .842 OPS his first season stateside.
I think Hoffman is going to get a three-year deal as a reliever or a starter. He can get the same deal as Holmes as a starter and Tanner Scott hasn't set the relief market yet. Not one major reliever has signed actually, just some trades. Chapman is second-tier and Holmes ceased to be one. Romano is actually the biggest signing other Treinen staying with his team.
I still hope Hoffman falls to us, but the odds of that are near zero I suspect with this trade. Who knows.
Hoffman is very underrated, he was probably our best reliever last year and I don’t see much reason why he can’t start (other than the first ~10 seasons of his career)
I think he's properly rated. He was always expected to cost more than Estevez, and teams wanting him to start is also a sign of how highly he's thought of. The fact that they jumped at Romano also says they thought he would be hard/expensive to sign.
Never say never, but they needed an OF, one high end reliever and a 5th starter and they've gotten all of that, with the Luzardo moving being way more than was expected (even if it was at a cost compared to a Turnbull, or just going with what they already had).
Only way I could see them going bigger on a reliever is if they trade Alvarado.
Caba may turn out to be a solid major league starting shortstop, but that is far from a certainty. I have seen many top prospects disappear into oblivion. One thing that makes for a consistently good organization is the ability to know which prospects to trade while they have value and which prospects to hold onto and who eventually become solid ML starters for your team. How the Phillies are doing that now, we will know in a few years.
Luzardo may not ever give the Phillies much, but he certainly has potential. Again, what he does for the Phillies remains to be seen. One thing for sure, Luzardo is more likely to help the Phillies in 2025 and 2026 than Caba. That is why this deal was done.
I agree that one more reliever is very likely to be added to the roster before spring training starts. There is also the chance of additional trades this off season. I don't think DD every is not looking to make a move if he thinks it makes the team and/or organization stronger.
I know Caba's ceiling could be high (and his floor still good as well) but I find it kind of hard to lament the loss of a 19 year-old whose OPS was below .500 in low A (admittedly in late/limited action). Anytime you can trade someone who is that far away (as opposed to Crawford, or O'Hoppe for that matter) it's not a bad thing for a team in the Phillies position.
Still don't understand why everyone thinks they need another reliever, or where he'd slot?
Romano
Strahm
Kerkering
Alvarado
Ruiz
Banks
optional # 7 spot (Lazar)
long/swingman (Walker and like five other candidates)
This team's success has pretty consistently been with less heralded relievers, whether a total dumpster dive like Hoffman or a journeyman like Strahm. As opposed to Kimbrel (who was decent but not elite) or Estevez (ditto) or Knebel or Soto (an All-Star close). And don't even think about the 2020 team. It's just too bad there doesn't seem to be another Kerkering or Seranthony in the wings, though there still could be.
The coaching staff also deserves a lot of credit for how they've tutored and utilized both the relievers and less heralded starters (just not Walker or all those other guys last year alas).