I didn’t say getting Castellanos out of the lineup was the goal, but instead getting off the defensive side. (At least that was my intent). His appx.. -2 dWAR alone makes any deal for Schwarber or him a success (probably, within reason). My point was just replacing him in the field with a 0 dWAR outfielder (agreed, not necessarily a slam dunk easy) is a success.
I think I am not making the point, by trading one of them, the other is the full time DH and neither of them takes the field.
No, my bad, I kind of lost track of your logic there, but I can't agree that anything is worth losing Schwarber. Anything realistic, at least. He could only be replaced by another $20 million+ FA or by trading Crawford (at minimum). And not only is he our second-best hitter he is one of the top two hitters with the approach the Phillies claim to need more of, not less of.
One thing we haven't considered is the Phillies might extend Schwarber and/or JT before the season even starts. They'd have to really want to do it and be ready to take pay cuts, but on the team side, it would be a way to lower this year's CBT number (by rolling this year's deal into a new AAV. At least I think that's allowed).
So you are saying Topper, Dombrowski and Boras all lied. And if they did that is fine, why keep propagating a rumor that no longer is there? I put the chances of them trading Bohm at less than 20%. They are simply not going to trade him for pennies on the dollar.
Honestly if they do trade Ranger or replace Ranger its not going to be with another high priced pitcher who is 3yrs older like Castillo. If they wanted to pay 20 mill plus for a pitcher why not just sign Ranger?
Schwarber is probably my favorite player on the team right now, so I hate the idea of trading him. He is fun to watch much in the same way Howard was, sometimes you just see the sparkle in their eye as they realize they guessed the pitch correctly and are about to obliterate the ball.
I was just doing an exercise in “what would I do to improve the team” and he is the one tradeable guy that I think improves the team pretty much no matter what if you get something for him and move Castellanos out of the field.
I will be sad if it happens.
"Stuck" with a team that easily won the NL East, boasts three ace-caliber pitchers and an upcoming rookie phenom, and at least five hitters capable of 30 homers or 100 RBIs. There simply isn't all that much that needs to be done this offseason other than bolster the relief corps, which DD has begun to do.
Our ability to make splashy trades is hampered both by our overall payroll (second in MLB, I believe) and because so many members of our lineup are more valuable to us than to another team (e.g.,Casty and Bohm). Fine - let 'em drive in 100 runs apiece for us again next year.
I continue to believe it was a mistake to non-tender Hays, who could have combined with Marsh on a cost-effective platoon in left. But no big deal; Marsh is going to get the bulk of the ABs there anyway.
I hope DD signs at least one more good reliever, and retains Suarez, who can either start or relieve depending on whether Painter can assume a spot in the rotation.
The only available 3B option to replace Bohm is Bregman, and they can’t afford to sign Bregman without trading both Bohm and Ranger, but then they wouldnt have money to replace Ranger or do anything more to the bulllpen. Ranger means so much to this team in 2025 the only reason to trade him (short of getting another viable piece with longer team control) would be at the trade deadline if they are out of it. Otherwise it’s better to keep him for the playoff run and take the draft pick comp.
The decision on Hays was because they wanted to upgrade in that area. Remember these non tenders happen so early its hard to have a read on the market. That said they probably said, Worst case for what we got from Hays we can get that from Westin Wilson for less dollars. Right wrong or indifferent that makes some sense.
I do believe they will continue to add arms to the pitching staff. mostly by minor league signings. But if a Carlos Estevez or one of the other 10 or so back end of the bullpen guys is willing to take a short term (1-2yr deal) at little less than market value I can see them doing that.
I still continue to think that guys like Otto Kemp and Gabreil Rincones are going to get a hard look in Spring Training. Kemp at age 25 should be ready to contribute. Coming off the season last year and his Arizona fall league that could be a good bet.
There are other options out there. One could do a platoon with Sosa. One could add to the middle infield and move Turner to 3B. Yoan Moncada is an interesting injury flyer candidate.
There are options out there if they want to be creative and also think Bohm is more of a 2 WAR bat than a 3 WAR bat. And of course if Bohm is dealt, something comes back in that trade.
In the end, we don't know anything. I personally think they are still going to try and trade Bohm, in hopes of getting back an OF who doesn't make too much money (unless he's traded for a pitcher and they trade Ranger for that). Barring that, they might still deal Crawford for an OF but I'm not sure there is one who would merit that price.
Otherwise, they aren't going to exceed the threshold in the pre-season and other moves will be modest. Platoon OF. No reliever of any note (maybe a minor league deal comeback candidate or the usual cluster of Jose Ruiz types) unless they trade Alvarado. A fifth starter Turnbull type which might be the biggest need unless you really want to see someone from last year's Aug/September group in April (because it isn't going to be Painter).
Or who knows, maybe they turn around and sign Bregman and blow past the threshold (while still trading Bohm obviously).
ESPN article from yesterday predicts us as landing Santander (3/69 projection).
Still in the mix for Bregman too (though assume not both).
What may make sense is waiting until enough teams have spent their way out of the market.
Then you can find bargains as players/agents realize the market has dried up.
Given their situation, the Phillies may prefer players who want one year deals if that happens so they can hit the market again next fall.
When your GM feels no urgency (his job is secure) you can be more patient.
Yeah Santander at 23 mill per year year, plus the loss of draft picks and the international signing bonus money (which takes the longshot of Sasaki out of the picture). And also going over the last threshold by about 10 million bucks I don't think they will do that.
No question he would be an upgrade but is he that much of an upgrade? I don't think the juice matches the squeeze on this one.
Not saying it is what I would do. Just expectations for what DD would do. I do have some concerns about Santander defensively and with his overall offensive game. Not too patient at the plate and relatively unathletic (18th percentile sprint speed).
I just think there are probably better ways to fill our LF hole. I am definitely open to dealing Bohm if the return is substantial. There is logic to filling the LF spot with more offense and then getting a better defensive 3B.
That's the problem with being a good team.
If you have glaring holes, it can make sense to overpay to fix one, going from 0 WAR to 3 WAR.
But if you're trying to upgrade Rojas, doesn't make sense to pay $20+M to go from 1-2 WAR to 3 WAR.
If Painter wasn't healthy, it might make sense to invest real money in another SP, going from -1 (Walker) to +2.
But if you think Painter gets 20 starts, and maybe another kid emerges, now you're spending to upgrade 10-20 starts overall. The value of that upgrade is diminished.
Question - if the Phillies sign a compensation free agent like Santander is the loss of international bonus money for the 2025 or 2026 period? Answering the question was probably easier when the period started in July. The 2025 period starts before the free agent period is completed though, so maybe all international slot compensation questions are pushed to 2026.
