Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Hot Stove)

Sometimes the anti-Casty crowd gets carried away with their own emotions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8v0ecI5uHA

I still don't subscribe to PHLY or listen/watch podcasts but per the email newsletter, talking about Ranger and Boras, they figure so long as Ranger has a similar season to last year overall (in line with his career ERA and typical 2+ WAR) he's looking at a $20M AAV and will be hard to keep. Of course Phillies have already signaled they expect to lose him (if they don't move him first themselves).

And I guess Ken Rosenthal did some podcast where he says he still thinks Bohm is gone. He also says it's just not Dombrowski's nature to stand pat, though I actually think that is an outdated take, just as that old nickname wasn't really true of Gillick for many years after he got it.

https://x.com/FoulTerritoryTV/status/1869100049382478023

Dombrowski pretty much stood pat last year. Aside from bringing in Merifield. He brought in Romano this year. So he is good :).
The thing about Rosenthal podcast was this was his opinion. No inside information just he has heard Bohms name out there a ton (paraphrasing) . Well yeah, the Topper did say teams were calling on him. When you bench an All Star player in the playoffs teams tend to think he may be available. Topper said they were not shopping him. Honestly if even half the rumors of what they are asking for are true, then what Topper is saying is true. You don't sell players like Bohm for pennies on a dollar. If you can win a deal like getting a Kirby etc then you may pull the trigger. We are not trading Bohm for Castillo. The salary and age on Castillo don't make sense for someone who is going to be their 4/5th starter. Taking on his salary plus paying the highest level of tax, will also cost you the ability to replace Bohm. An offense we think needs to get better probably gets worse. Love him or not with Bohm he still drove in 97 runs last year, was up the top of the league in doubles for most of the year. Yes he struggled down the stretch but without him you don't win the division. You can't trade him for a 32 yr old starting pitcher who has a 4.25 era outside of T Mobile Park. Rosenthal also insinuated we would have to add more to that deal. I would be stunned if the Phillies made a deal like that.

I think they start the season with Ranger, outside chance they deal him at the trade deadline depending on how our pitching prospects develop

I still go back to what Matt and literally every journalist in Philly and America has reported - he was very very available and every team knew it. The inside information was the opposing GMs telling them Bohm's been offered to them, not that they were calling to try and get him. What Topper said was basically damage control - likely a flat-out untruth even - since they were unable to move him.

Castillo is signed for a long time and has a much bigger track record than Bohm (or Ranger) so long as you think he won't decline more with age he'd be a good pick-up and ultimate short-term replacement for Ranger. But it still only makes sense if you have the right deal for Ranger, or a clear plan for 3B (you certainly can't sign another FA for 3B or LF if you take on Castillo's salary, even with Seattle throwing some in. Unless they take Walker back).

No, my bad, I kind of lost track of your logic there, but I can't agree that anything is worth losing Schwarber. Anything realistic, at least. He could only be replaced by another $20 million+ FA or by trading Crawford (at minimum). And not only is he our second-best hitter he is one of the top two hitters with the approach the Phillies claim to need more of, not less of.

One thing we haven't considered is the Phillies might extend Schwarber and/or JT before the season even starts. They'd have to really want to do it and be ready to take pay cuts, but on the team side, it would be a way to lower this year's CBT number (by rolling this year's deal into a new AAV. At least I think that's allowed).

Schwarber is probably my favorite player on the team right now, so I hate the idea of trading him. He is fun to watch much in the same way Howard was, sometimes you just see the sparkle in their eye as they realize they guessed the pitch correctly and are about to obliterate the ball.

I was just doing an exercise in “what would I do to improve the team” and he is the one tradeable guy that I think improves the team pretty much no matter what if you get something for him and move Castellanos out of the field.

I will be sad if it happens.

The only available 3B option to replace Bohm is Bregman, and they can’t afford to sign Bregman without trading both Bohm and Ranger, but then they wouldnt have money to replace Ranger or do anything more to the bulllpen. Ranger means so much to this team in 2025 the only reason to trade him (short of getting another viable piece with longer team control) would be at the trade deadline if they are out of it. Otherwise it’s better to keep him for the playoff run and take the draft pick comp.

Bingo! Gotta make sure that the guy you're bringing in is BETTER than the guy you're letting go.

There are other options out there. One could do a platoon with Sosa. One could add to the middle infield and move Turner to 3B. Yoan Moncada is an interesting injury flyer candidate.

There are options out there if they want to be creative and also think Bohm is more of a 2 WAR bat than a 3 WAR bat. And of course if Bohm is dealt, something comes back in that trade.

In the end, we don't know anything. I personally think they are still going to try and trade Bohm, in hopes of getting back an OF who doesn't make too much money (unless he's traded for a pitcher and they trade Ranger for that). Barring that, they might still deal Crawford for an OF but I'm not sure there is one who would merit that price.

Otherwise, they aren't going to exceed the threshold in the pre-season and other moves will be modest. Platoon OF. No reliever of any note (maybe a minor league deal comeback candidate or the usual cluster of Jose Ruiz types) unless they trade Alvarado. A fifth starter Turnbull type which might be the biggest need unless you really want to see someone from last year's Aug/September group in April (because it isn't going to be Painter).

Or who knows, maybe they turn around and sign Bregman and blow past the threshold (while still trading Bohm obviously).

More intrigued by the fact that nobody has signed Jeff Hoffman yet either.

ESPN article from yesterday predicts us as landing Santander (3/69 projection).

Still in the mix for Bregman too (though assume not both).

for all the guys they weren't willing to spend to go over on, Santander makes even less sense.

What may make sense is waiting until enough teams have spent their way out of the market.
Then you can find bargains as players/agents realize the market has dried up.
Given their situation, the Phillies may prefer players who want one year deals if that happens so they can hit the market again next fall.

When your GM feels no urgency (his job is secure) you can be more patient.