Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[phillyfn]

Just making the playoffs and losing in the first like they did last year would be ok with you? That’s what the last half of your comment seems to imply.

[Philsmania]

Just making the playoffs and losing in the first like they did last year would be ok with you? That’s what the last half of your comment seems to imply.

October baseball is a total crapshoot no matter what you do all season long or at the deadline. It's whoever gets hot and, more specifically, whoever's bullpen gets hot at the right time. I often say the team which ends up at the top in October is the team that has the best bullpen in October. But, the best bullpen in October isn't always the best bullpen in the regular season (otherwise, Cleveland would be basking in the glow of its first WC since 1948).

[andyb]

The big question for the Phillies is really how much is it worth paying to increase your chance of winning the World Series from 10% to 15%.

[zambonir]

I don't believe what you do at the deadline plays much of a role in how you actually do in the playoffs, and history bears that out year after year.

I'd like to see them get better. I don't think anyone but Painter should be 100% off-limits. But most of the available OFs aren't better than the [disappointing] OFs we have, and a lot of teams won't be selling because of the newer playoff format. Plus the bottom could drop out of this team real fast if they are too aggressive about selling the farm.

By all means, go get Buxton or Duran [the OF] or even Bregman if they're available. But I doubt they'll move, more than I wouldn't pay the freight.

The owner has seemingly set a cap on this payroll, which I don't like. We'll see if that's the case. And DD did whiff big on both Kepler and Romano. Harder to fix that now than it would have been in advance. Tucker or Bellinger would look good on this team right now. Hoffman or Estevez, still not so sure they get where we want them to go but obviously they are better than Romano.

[zambonir]

They're not gonna do it and it would be wildly unpopular but there's a perfectly good argument to make - I think Atown has made it and clearly phllyfn wouldn't like it - that in this year of Nola's injury, Alvarado's suspension and Harper's swoon, maybe you just don't go all-in. But they have been okay without Nola, Alvarado can be replaced, and we have to hope Harper gets better.

I think the bar for DD has always been if it's a WS team you make some moves to fill the obvious holes. You barely can increase your chance of winning it and there's nothing the Braves or Dodgers GMs could have done to make their '22 or '23 playoffs go any better than our '24 went.

[phillyfn]

I agree it’s a crapshoot but expecting a sudden improvement from basically the same team as last year is not a great plan to increase the chances of a deep playoff run.

[phillychuck]

I think the argument would be that your chances were not that good last year, nor were anyone’s coming into post season. What do you think the chances of winning a WS are for the best team going in? Maybe 10-15%. If you run it back you have roughly that chance again..Maybe you roll 7s a few times this year, other than snake-eyes.

[zambonir]

No, we certainly can't expect sudden improvement when there already hasn't been actual improvement, even if the overall winning percentage is about the same [and indeed, this is the fifth-best Phillies team at the All-Star break in franchise history].

But they didn't actually "run it back." Now it's very clear that one aspect of the team greatly improved [both through a good addition and guys just getting better, even w/o Nola] while two others declined [due to not-good additions and guys just getting worse]. Defense is probably about the same.

The team this one most resembles is the 2011 Phillies. That club didn't need any relief pitchers. Did it actually need Hunter Pence? The result that year says no. I still wouldn't mind if this team could go get a Hunter Pence, but I'm not sure there's one to be gotten. I also still feel like the '23 and '24 teams never really made up for the loss of Hoskins and there's no one like him out there to be gotten either, unless you move Harper or Schwarber to OF.

My guess is after the deadline when Dombrowski gets a reliever and another Austin Hays, he will say something like, "our real trade deadline additions are a healthy Aaron Nola, a hot Bryce Harper and Andrew Painter."

[julio]

What do you think the chances of winning a WS are for the best team going in? Maybe 10-15%.

Yes, this. This is what a lot (most?) MLB fans don't seem to really grasp.

Twelve teams are in the post-season. Assuming all teams are of similar ability, their chances are 1 in 12, or 8.3%. If the best team (Dodgers?) doubles their odds, they're at about 17%. If the Phillies make a good move (or more) at the deadline, they might increase their odds from 8.3% to 10% - but that still means they're going to fall short 9 out of 10 years. Everybody is unlikely to win out.

The upside of expanded playoffs is that more teams are in the hunt deeper into the season - presumably increases fan interest. The downside is that expanded playoffs are a crapshoot (because short series between fairly well-matched teams are a crapshoot), and the best clubs frequently do not win.

The way fans, and marketers, deal with this is to just define whoever wins out as "the best," whether their actual performance over the long haul justifies that, or not.

[phillychuck]

Exactly.

The result of a series can come down to a ground ball to third base hitting a rock or a slippery thrown baseball on a sweaty day sailing over the head of an infielder. Just because you didn’t make a playoff run last year doesn’t mean you can’t this year. So running it back can make sense even after a disappointing run. Teams usually don’t go through the playoffs winning lopsided games.

[zambonir]

The trade deadline used to be for teams trying to win their division or secure a single wild card. Now it's still very much for teams simply trying to make the playoffs, but the Phillies, with this rotation, are not one of those teams even if the offense is sometimes hard to watch.

The irony is the '22 team was perceived as one that was built for the playoffs, after barely making and having the worst regular season record of any of the Thomson teams. Now we're perceived as the opposite. But that's what the Braves and Dodgers were in '22 and '23 too. [And the DBacks were '23's version of the Phillies. In '24 the better teams both did get to the end.]

[phillychuck]

Playoff teams usually feature dominant starting pitching and power (since good pitching affects small-ball more than 3-run HRs). We are lacking power, AND in the modern era with bullpens throwing more innings, we have an achilles heel. Hoping for a cheap, excellent reliever or two, but not expecting it.

[phillyfn]

Then why the talk of “windows closing” or players moving out of their prime. If “running it back” is ok why bother discussing potential trades to attempt to improve the team? Being one of the top 12 teams should be enough to appease the fanbase.

[phillyfn]

Cheap is not likely. And other teams have the same need for bullpen help. Not expecting much mainly due to payroll implications.

[allentown]

Fans always want more. The local media demand more. More isn't always better.

[phillyfn]

Nothing is guaranteed in any sport. But if the purpose is to win championships, when you fall short, you have to evaluate and improve the areas of your shortcomings. I think we can all agree right now the shortcomings are the bullpen, and a consistent offensive outfielder.

[phillychuck]

You try by your moves to nudge your percentage up without mortgaging the future and/or overpaying. And windows close because the underlying basic percentage of just making the playoffs goes down as great players age out.

I think you could argue this year that the bullpen hole due to Alvarado’s idiocy and Romano just being awful is big enough that a significant relief acquisition could move the odds 4 or 5 %, which is a lot. I’m not sure I would do it with relievers being such an unpredictable species.

[BostonRoss]

The team this one most resembles is the 2011 Phillies. That club didn't need any relief pitchers. Did it actually need Hunter Pence? The result that year says no. I still wouldn't mind if this team could go get a Hunter Pence, but I'm not sure there's one to be gotten.

The analogy to 2011 works very well. A World Series team from a couple years earlier saw the oldish offensive players declined but vastly improved pitching. I'm a bit concerned that the 2024 team is an even better analogy and we are now looking at the 2012 team redux.

I agree there probably isn't a Pence available this July, but if there were, I'd like to see the Phillies pursue him (as long as they don't trade him next year for a Joseph, Schierholtz, and Rosin).

[zambonir]

IMO the flaw of the 2011 team wasn't the championship core, but that the old players they brought in to replace some of the others [Ibanez, Polanco] were themselves offensively cooked by then after one or two good years. But that's exactly why Dombrowski didn't do sign Profar or Santander

OTOH they let Werth go which make it all the more ridiculous that they had to trade for Pence, just like they had to trade for Oswalt after letting Lee go the first time. But we haven't actually let any major [non-reliever] FAs leave really.

[BostonRoss]

Werth's first year in Washington wasn't very good; Pence had more WAR in his 1/3 season with the Phillies than Werth had for all of 2011. And Polanco in 2011 was better than Pete Happy ever was.

Although Ibanez was decent in 2009, there is no way to justify giving him that contract at his age. He was dreadful in 2011, not surprising for a 39 year old. And of course the Phillies compounded their error by extending Howard.