Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

zambonir 2025-07-12 01:12:10 UTC #904

I am starting to think that the front office and the clubhouse collectively decided that after last year they really didn't need the aggravation of the All-Star Game. It was all downhill from there, and why not enjoy your vacation? For Wheeler to pass up the chance to pitch in Atlanta is just huge. I'm sure the kids [and the very young new one] a factor too, especially if they are living in Philly.

BostonRoss 2025-07-12 02:04:04 UTC #905

It will be harder to say no next year.

zambonir 2025-07-12 02:45:04 UTC #906

I don't think we've discussed Schwarber's rather clever statement that he planned to be in the Home Run Derby next year.

But more importantly, NL manager Rob Thomson will be able to pack the roster.

zambonir 2025-07-12 12:03:30 UTC #907

Suarez actually turned it down too. But the Athletic story says a couple of weeks ago Phillies had already booked the charter flight from San Diego to Atlanta, expecting to have at least a little group.

The league's position is apparently that, unlike with the original roster, if you can't or won't pitch, you won't be named as a sub, they just skip to someone who can.

bkox 2025-07-12 13:08:33 UTC #908

I think it may be time to ditch the all star game... or make the entire week an off week so players can still get a vacation while playing in the game.

zambonir 2025-07-12 13:46:46 UTC #909

Better yet, why not just shorten the season [calendar-wise]? But, never gonna happen, somebody is always going to pay to air this stuff, and for MLB muckety-mucks and sponsors and owners it's like their annual party/convention.

I think there's a lot they could do to change the format, and the selection process. Instead of complaining about a rookie with only five starts making it over Sanchez, why not just have designated slots for younger players? And why even have it be AL or NL at this point.

Or just have it be MLB vs. Savannah Bananas

zambonir 2025-07-13 00:07:19 UTC #910

zambonir 2025-07-13 22:38:55 UTC #911

Jesús Luzardo will make the first start on Friday, July 18 against the Los Angeles Angels. Taijuan Walker stays in the rotation and will start Saturday. Both pitchers are scheduled to throw bullpen sessions during the break.

Ranger Suárez will start the Sunday series finale on July 20, with Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sánchez getting the first two games of the Red Sox series on July 21 and July 22.

Sure doesn't sound like we'll see Painter before September, IMO [assuming Nola is ready to step in mid-August]. They might even give him a break or lighten his workload [either fewer innings or more days between starts].

Painter gave up two home runs in five innings in his start on Sunday for Triple-A Lehigh Valley against the Syracuse Mets.

The Phillies are not sure when he’ll make his next start for the IronPigs.

The 22-year-old has struggled in his last three starts. He has a 7.04 ERA in the month of July. His last two starts on Sunday and on Tuesday, July 8 came against the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. He allowed a combined five home runs and eight earned runs in both outings.

zambonir 2025-07-14 12:40:57 UTC #912

The "balance" this article suggests is, in fact, that maybe they need to swing away more like they used to, because the imbalance is now the other way. But, maybe not, since at the end of the day, they are still scoring runs. It means more low-scoring games and small ball that is painful to watch when it's not clicking perfectly though... and possibly an offense that is easier to shut down in the playoffs. The teams that have gotten to the WS the past three years were all doing it with power in the end, the '22 Phillies included.

The Phillies have worked the 10th-most 2-0 counts of any club this season. They have often been in an advantageous spot to hit. It is crucial. However, after getting to 2-0 counts this season, they have slugged .396 — their worst output in those situations since 1991 and 122 points below last season.

The Phillies entered the break fifth in slugging percentage in the National League and 14th in MLB. They are seventh in the NL in runs scored.

But they are doing many of the things the front office and coaching staff requested in the wake of last season’s bittersweet defeat in the National League Division Series. The Phillies wanted their hitters to use the whole field. They wanted them to chase fewer pitches out of the zone. They wanted a better two-strike approach.

Their hitters have, largely, made those adjustments. They are carrying their lowest chase rate since 2021 — while seeing the fewest percentage of pitches in the strike zone than any other club. They have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Their .329 on-base percentage ranks fourth in MLB.

However, in recent weeks, some veteran hitters have wondered if the dip in power is related to the agenda shift. It’s hard to have it all.

Being more selective and taking walks and not striking out should force other teams to throw more strikes, so why hasn't it? Is it simply that our guys who can't hit breaking stuff never will?

dicemen99 2025-07-14 12:59:53 UTC #913

I know you have posted this and the sentiment that they are a good offense a few times, but the fact is that they are very average at scoring runs. That is what the stats say - they are decidedly average.

Average plays OK in the regular season when you have the best starting rotation in baseball, but is unlikely to play well in the postseason against the other top staffs that they will see.

zambonir 2025-07-14 13:26:54 UTC #914

Well, sure, 7th out of 14th in NL is literally middling, but they are 13th out of 30 in MLB and 12th in OPS. That's not too far off from the top tier. I believe they were Top 10 and possibly even Top 5 at the end of May. Obviously they feasted on some bad teams in May, but they also lost Harper in June, and he hasn't been himself all season. There's no fix for that really.

I agree the offense has to be better, and I hope they are able to find another bat to replace Kepler, but they are working with what they have, and such hitters as Trea, JT and Nick have actually adjusted. That doesn't mean they will never swing at bad ptiches, but they aren't doing it as much. They're just not as good as they were when they were 28, and this team was built around starting pitching because of that.

I'm still not sure I buy that it gets harder in the postseason. The Mets didn't have an elite rotation, and we teed off on Arizona's best pitchers too. Our own starters and our bullpen ultimately floundered in that series as much as their pitchers shut the offense down [though in the end it certainly did]. LA did not have an elite rotation last year either. The Phillies currently have winning records against a bunch of playoff teams and losing records against a bunch of others. You still don't really know what's going to happen in a post-game series. And MLB playoff history is dotted with guys who were barely Mendoza Line playoff hitters until they finally had that one good series in theirs 30s. Nick is still that same guy who can carry a team for one game or one series and then lose one for you. That's not gonna change. And neither is the fact that as Bryce goes the Phillies go.

In the end of course, it comes down to, what do you invest in this season and roster, though there are so few bats available it might not matter anyway.

Austinfan 2025-07-14 13:42:37 UTC #915

The adjustment is good, it might extend their useful seasons a year or two.

But the fact you can't hit for power on 2-0 counts suggests the fundamental problem is talent, b/c that's the perfect count for a hitter, focus on your pitch, swing hard and spit on anything else.

The decline of over 30 hitters as they lose bat speed is normal, and this is the adjustment top power hitters make (works for Schwarber, worked for Thome, etc). But it was still inevitable that they'd decline, problem was the young hitters, Stott, Bohm, Marsh, etc. were supposed to be peaking and compensate.

Which is why adding a mega-dollar 30 year old FA won't make a lot of difference, just one more overpaid contract as the ship sinks. The only hope is to produce enough young starters to balance out decline, and they've failed miserable. Doubling down on that failure would be the triumph of hope over experience.

zambonir 2025-07-14 13:57:27 UTC #916

Well, in the story it talks about how Harper's 2-0 fly ball died at the fence. But also that JT has found a double/gap power groove, and delivered the game-winning hit on a 3-1 count.

What to do next is a two-part question. July 31 and December 1. I certainly don't think they can keep Schwarber and sign another big FA bat, with or without JT. There are going to have be harder decisions/trades/creativity.

And of course it also depends on what happens this year. If things go really well [WS appearances or win] you still shouldn't double down. And if things go really badly, you can't rule out them re-setting the CBT penalties.

julio 2025-07-14 15:01:06 UTC #917

Not really. I ran some numbers (data from Baseball-Reference).

The Phillies are 0.33 standard deviations above the MLB mean in runs scored per game. One-third of a standard deviation above the mean isn't top tier; the top six teams are more than one full SD above the mean. The Dodgers are at 1.74 SD above the mean.

Slugging? The Phils are 0.15 SD above the mean; five teams are more than 1.0 SD above the mean. The Yankees are at 1.93 SD above the mean.

OPS? The Phils are 0.44 SD above the mean; again, five teams are more than 1.0 SD above the mean. The Yankees are at 1.95 SD above the mean.

That's an average offense - closer to the mean than to even one SD above the mean in each category. In each category, five or six teams are more than one SD above the mean - one-sixth, which is a pretty normal high-end SD tail.

Minor counter-argument: The Phils are actually fourth in OBP, 1.1 SD above the MLB mean. (This why their OPS SD is better than their SLG SD.) It's the SLG - the relative lack of power - that's holding the offense back.

zambonir 2025-07-14 15:38:49 UTC #918

Well, if you want to bring real math into it!

What about RISP and runners on?

Anyway, as I said, my sort of continued argument that the offense is pretty good is based more on where they were on June 1. We can certainly say May was not representative [including SOS] or worry that Harper was already having a down year and won't make them sufficiently better. But there is a best-case where the offense can be more productive again. It just requires power, and an MVP-level Bryce. There's nothing Nick or Bohm or JT can do in terms of their hitting approach to change that [and Trea shouldn't change his, he's already become what they asked him to become].

allentown 2025-07-14 16:03:54 UTC #919

Harper has always been close to the new approach. His lack of power is from his wrist power. Schwarber has thrived with it. Castellanos is same-old, same-old, at least for his 4 years in Philly. Doubles up slightly, HRs down a little but following an age regression, BA up this season but OBP flat. Marsh and Bohm are down in x-base hits from last season. Marsh is hitting HRs at a little less than half the rate he did last year, while his OBP is up a measly 0.004. If he was encouraged to change his hitting approach, he would be well advised to change back. Bohm has the same HR rate, but his doubles rate is halved, his BA is unchanged and his OBP is up 0.005. If the Phillies persuaded him to change his approach at the plate, they should tell him to go back to what he did last season.
Realmuto is hitting more doubles, but his HR rate is off by half. His BA and OBP are up by only 0.002. I won't say it's obvious to go back to last season's approach, since I think his problem is largely age. Stott's stats are little changed in x-base hits from last year, but BA and OPS both down from last year and substantially down from two years ago. Rojas has continued to decline.

allentown 2025-07-14 16:05:38 UTC #920

June first was the high point for the season, very roughly. Different team since then.

zambonir 2025-07-14 16:15:45 UTC #921

Yeah but that doesn't mean we know what the next few months are going to be like. I also really don't think it matters if they are just a .540 team [so long as they make the playoffs].

Athletic covered all of this from another perspective during the last slump. The breaking ball thing. In one of those Pirates games Casty had a 3-0 count that went full and he struck out. JT then hit a weak fly ball on a hanging slider. Stott worked a full count and flied out on a change-up.

Almost every hitter on the roster has seen a dip in slugging percentage against off-speed and breaking pitches. Many have experienced radical declines.

The team’s slugging percentage against non-fastballs ranks 25th in MLB. Even more telling: Since May 27, the Phillies have averaged 3.08 runs per game. They are 3-9 in that span. They have slugged a measly .273 on non-fastballs during that stretch. That ranks 30th in MLB — 20 points lower than the next-worst offense.

This was the scouting report that emerged last summer: The Phillies can be beaten with spin.

But that wasn’t always the case in 2024. The Phillies actually ranked fifth in the majors last season in slugging percentage against non-fastballs. They improved later in the season, their best damage on those pitches coming from Aug. 1 to the end of the regular season.

Philsmania 2025-07-14 16:48:19 UTC #922

We are a game over .500 since then and currently in the toughest part of their schedule.

In early June, the Phillies got swept in Pittsburgh losing three one-run games. In late June, the Mets got swept Pittsburbuh losing by eight runs, seven runs and eleven runs. The Mets' run differential went from +80something to +30something in June. At one point in April, they were ahead by of us five games in the division.

zambonir 2025-07-14 16:59:08 UTC #923

I was curious about the schedule after you posted regarding that the other day, it doesn't necessarily get easier. ROS W% is .551, overall SOS is 501. Mets are .534, .502.

But current playoff odds 91.7%. 58.5% to the Mets' 41.1% for NL East. They will be buying hard at the deadline, there just might not be much to buy [plus a limit on what they are willing to pay, in both senses].

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds