Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[Matt_Winkelman]

Chace the cost is less the $ than the service time. It would cost them like $750k in cash, but it would give him half a year of mlb service time for no mlb time

[andyb]

It looks like Otto is a little banged up too. Inquirer reporter tweeted this last night: Might see Sosa or Kennedy the next couple of days no matter what.

https://x.com/lochlahn/status/1935454047605068261

The Phillies are "taking it easy" on Otto Kemp after he fouled a ball off his knee last night. He has some swelling and is not in the lineup today.

FWIW Kemp is back in the lineup tonight so he must be fine. The move was about keeping Kennedy while the Phillies assess what to do. Any one of the 3 (Wilson, Kemp, Kennedy) could be the LF platoon partner in a month or none after whatever trades we make. Marchan playing too, second time in this series.

[andyb]

Bowden piles on suggesting the Bautista/Mullins for Abel trade again. He does not say the Phillies would need to add other prospects. This deal does intrigue me. I think I would do it if it were only Abel.

Six trades I’d like to see before MLB trade deadline, starting with a Sandy...

[zambonir]

I'm not even sure I'd need Mullins if it's only Abel, given Bautista's current salary and two additional years of control. I hate paying a high price for any reliever but is that really any higher than two prospects for only 10 weeks of Estevez (or even the two-player price Baltimore paid for the controllable but less impressive Soto)?

I guess Mullins' salary would roughly match what the Phillies are now saving on Alvarado (and Bautista would be much cheaper than high-paid rental close $-wise) but that just seems like too many LHB OFs. Just seems too likely to repeat the same thing for the third year in a row, a big spot in October where you are relying on Marsh or Kepler (if not both, should Mullins be here) against a LHP, or Rojas or someone like Kemp/Wilson. Of course it would be great if Kemp is the answer, but...

[andyb]

Mullins would allow them to trade Marsh potentially and clearing the way for Crawford next year after Mullins leaves.

I know the board just wants to cut Kepler loose, but he has less trade value and Mullins is probably better than Marsh in CF even if neither is that great there defensively.

[zambonir]

I don't want to cut Kepler loose but I still think Marsh could be the LF next year with Crawford in CF. Or a platoon partner for Casty. Kepler's a free agent. We can't be sure Phillies will go out and spend $ on another OF (or move Turner) before Casty's gone and Marsh is still a useful, youngish, modestly priced player

Just not sure they aren't all exactly the same player. Mullins is hitting a little better (and is not as much of a zero against LHP) but doesn't appear to be a major defensive upgrade currently either.

Get a RHB and you don't have to cut anyone loose. Get a full-time LF with a bigger bat than Marsh or Kepler and you happily would. Of course that is easier said than done, but then again that also probably means Kepler has trade value. Heck, they could trade him for Seranthony

[andyb]

I do think you could get Seranthony for our something like our 35th ranked prospect because of the salary. It is kind of the move that I would hope they make just because we have guys like Mercado floating around our bullpen now. I think they traded Seranthony because they had decided not to pick up his option. Now a half season of his salary as our 4th or 5th reliever seems like a good idea.

[allentown]

I think they traded Seranthony because they had decided not to pick up his option. Now a half season of his salary as our 4th or 5th reliever seems like a good idea.

I can get behind that trade. I like Seranthony.
I don't want Mullins.
Marsh is a CF not a LF. He is no competition for Crawford in CF. It may well be Crawford vs Rojas in ST2026.

[zambonir]

But Marsh is a much better LF than he is a CF. Even before he wore a Phillies uniform (when he was a Gold Glove finalist in the AL) but also while he has been here. The switch back to CF was as big a reason for his plummeting WAR as his less productive bat, though obviously the completely unproductive bat earlier this year was an even bigger one during that stretch.

A plus corner OF who consistently puts up an 800 OPS against RHP is a guy I want to keep for a while, especially since the option exists to platoon him with Nick (at either spot). I also don't think it's at all clear Crawford is going to be a better player than Marsh, defensively or offensively (or Rojas defensively). I've seen it suggested his fielding may not play any higher than them as an MLB CF.

The Phillies moved Marsh to CF to try and get more offense out of LF at the expense of defense, first from Hays and then from Kepler while also moving Kepler off of his best defensive position. Before that, when Merrifield was here, Rojas was the starting CF and Pache was also there. None of it has worked, in and of itself. It has all worked, inasmuch as these have been good teams.

Be a lot cheaper to get Seranthony than Bautista. The only other question then is if you're counting on the rotation for LH relief in October to replace Alvarado (who will be back after the trade deadline).

[bkox]

Think bkeich posted in the wrong thread.. so Ill quote and past here.

Minor League Games - June 20th, 2025

Minor League Games - June 20th, 2025

It is amazing we have done as well as we have this season with a negative WAR OF.

Kepler is a 1.0-1.5 WAR at best player. He isn’t this year.
Castellanos dreams of being a 0 WAR player. His defense is legendarily bad. He is having a solid season with the bat and is still negative. It is hopeless.
Marsh is a small hope. He is capable of at slightly positive OPS and is better than average in LF, but less than average in CF
Rojas would be a good OF if only he could put up a 95 OPS +. Sadly he can’t. He will get another chance because he still is cheap.
Crawford has red flags, but we need help so bad we are getting close to “why not”.
There has to be a FA / Trade that can give us a chance at a 3 WAR player.

The OF is the ultra-easy part of this team to improve. The bullpen is about as bad, but there is so much variance in relievers year to year that it is almost luck.

In 2024 there were only 65 non pitchers players who hit 3 WAR. The Phillies had 3 of them (Turner, Harper, Schwarber)
Of those 65 only 23 were outfielders... less than 1 per team.

Of those 23, 8 were below 0 on the DEF part on fangraphs..
So no its not that easy to find a 3 WAR outfielder. And if 1 is available... they will be expensive

[bkeich]

Think bkeich posted in the wrong thread.. so Ill quote and past here.

Minor League Games - June 20th, 2025

[quote="bkeich, post:9, topic:54471, full:true"]
It is amazing we have done as well as we have this season with a negative WAR OF.

Kepler is a 1.0-1.5 WAR at best player. He isn’t this year.
Castellanos dreams of being a 0 WAR player. His defense is legendarily bad. He is having a solid season with the bat and is still negative. It is hopeless.
Marsh is a small hope. He is capable of at slightly positive OPS and is better than average in LF, but less than average in CF
Rojas would be a good OF if only he could put up a 95 OPS +. Sadly he can’t. He will get another chance because he still is cheap.
Crawford has red flags, but we need help so bad we are getting close to “why not”.
There has to be a FA / Trade that can give us a chance at a 3 WAR player.

The OF is the ultra-easy part of this team to improve. The bullpen is about as bad, but there is so much variance in relievers year to year that it is almost luck.
[/quote]

In 2024 there were only 65 non pitchers players who hit 3 WAR. The Phillies had 3 of them (Turner, Harper, Schwarber)
Of those 65 only 23 were outfielders... less than 1 per team.

Of those 23, 8 were below 0 on the DEF part on fangraphs..
So no its not that easy to find a 3 WAR outfielder. And if 1 is available... they will be expensive

Fair enough, I just picked a number. You could say 2.

My point was we currently have 0 WAR for 3 positions (actually a little less). It should be the easiest place to improve, both at the trade deadline and during the offseason. My guess, without research, is that we are very near the bottom in total WAR in the outfield and much better in the IF (and of course near the top in Starting Pitchjng).

Just average play from our OF would be a massive improvement.

[allentown]

But Marsh is a much better LF than he is a CF.

Typed too fast and totally blooped that sentence. I meant the reverse of what I wrote.

[andyb]

The less offense from the OF is a little bit of a roster consequence choice (big money on DH, SS, starting pitching) and Harper moving from the OF. Castellanos is a bit of a disappointment in terms of value, but they are mostly stuck with him until the contract runs out or they get something better.

Marsh has been a bit of a disappointment but not a disaster. Rojas just needed a season in AAA to refine his hitting and it is a shame he never got that. Kepler was a band-aid that was never supposed to be great - just competent.

It is good they are giving Crawford that year in AAA as he still has major refinements needed in his game. We may very well go with him in CF and Marsh in LF next year. Probably an acknowledgement that the money saved by doing that can be spent in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

It really isn't that easy to find a good OF though. Amazingly Kepler may have actually been the best off-season free agent signing, relative to term and cost, even if the Phillies had been willing to dish out money and years. Of the Top 50 MLBTR guys Santander, Profar, O'Neill and Joc Pedersen all busts. Teoscar Hernandez wasn't leaving LA and isn't a strong defender (even if he's better than Nick). Harrison Bader (who was 49th) would have been okay (leaving Marsh in LF). Randall Grichuck (an honorable mention along with Kepler) might have been a better fit as a righty but we passed on him twice in 2023 and he has a 0.0 WAR.

Juan Soto's good of course. And so is Kyle Tucker. But neither of them were available at an acceptable price (money in the former case, players in the latter). They've been correct to stay away from Robert too.

In the end individual stats and individual WAR don't matter. Marsh has put his poor start behind him and will be the equivalent of a 2.0 WAR player, if not more, from May onwards it seems. Hopefully Kepler, coming off an injury and changing teams, will turn it around as well. Casty can hit and was never supposed to play RF. The roster is still poorly designed in terms of there being too many DHs and one too many LHBs, plus a catcher who is paid to hit like a top bat and isn't anymore.

I'd be all for finding a new everyday LF at the deadline but that probably costs you Crawford or two Top 10 guys who aren't him in a vacuum, if that player even exists. They won't do that. They'll keep looking to improve the bench or platoon situation.

Even the two spots where they could make a surprise dramatic change can't really be addressed easily. You don't really want to move on from Bohm (since he's hitting) or Stott (still a good 2B) yet IMO but even if you did only limited upgrades are out there. Leaguewide, 2B is as weak as OF right now. And of course five or even 10 other teams all want the same thing the Phillies do, including the Mets (CF and closer-type arm).

[BostonRoss]

You forgot Austin Hays!. Or were you limiting only to players who are available most of the time?

[zambonir]

Haha sure did! Didn't scroll down to the end of the MLBTR list (where the non-tendered players were probably added after original publication date). Andrew McCutchen on there too.

I'd take either of them back though playing Cutch in the field would just lower his WAR.

The guy I'd love in our batting order is Marcell Ozuna but then Schwarber is your LF.

[zambonir]

He slogged through a hitless streak of 31 at-bats in April. He was hurt, then unremarkable to begin May. His playing time was sporadic. His play in center field was (and still is) not as good as the Phillies expected.

Still, he’s giving them something. It is all the Phillies have ever wanted from whoever is playing in center field, a position that often feels as if it’s cursed for this franchise. But in June, Phillies center fielders have a .788 OPS. Most of that is Marsh. He is hitting .400/.450/.543 in 40 plate appearances. A small sample.

Since the beginning of May, it’s .333/.400/.440 in 95 plate appearances. He has not always hit for power, but he’s doing something.

Brandon Marsh is ‘locked in right now’ for the first-place, double-sliding...

[allentown]

No, it's not that easy. Casty is bad D but 107 OPS+ and a big contract this year and next. He is -0.4 rWAR but we all know he will play every day. Marsh has been solid for us, playing at a 3.0 rWAR the prior 2+ seasons. He was terrible to start this season but has been hot for a month. It makes no sense to me to add a LF. We won't get anyone better than Marsh without trading more talent than we can afford to give up. CF is a genuine hole, but if we trade for more than a rental for the rest of this season we are saying Crawford will never join the Phillies and the team takes another step to being REALLY old. That's a dim future.

A note on the above post from bkeich. The Phillies had another 3.1 rWAR player last year: Marsh. He also had 3.4 rWAR in 2023. He is fine as our LF, despite his very poor start this season. He is only 27 years old.

[Austinfan]

What I don't understand is why they didn't have Kemp play more in LF in Lehigh.
With Bohm and Sosa, and Miller in AA, RH IF bat has limited value.

[andyb]

Maybe Casty is a 2 WAR DH next season. Paying $30 million for a DH (Schwarber) for 3 or 4 years may not be wise.

Of course we probably then spend $40 million on Kyle Tucker. It would be really nice for a real power bat to develop in the OF but we just don't have that in the minors at the moment.