Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[rkeden]

BR- Maybe if you dramatically upped your caffeine intake, the speed of your fastball would increase. Think of Alvarado as a micro-experiment. If you fear simultaneously raising your heartbeat to near explosion, tell your son to give it a try. If he can get to 96 with a decent changeup, he could still consider a career move!

[andyb]

Stott leading off tonight. Most likely to give Bryce protection in the lineup with Schwarber behind him.

[BostonRoss]

My son didn't pitch much, but he hit like a pitcher.

[rkeden]

Good, BR... You gotta start someplace. You are half way to success!!

[zambonir]

Reading this makes me think we're probably a little too quick to slot Painter into a five-man rotation. He's never even pitched on four days rest in his career, and still only has five starts at AA. Gelb speculates that the Phillies plan will put him at about 40-42 IPs in the minors between now and July, maybe fewer than that if he skips a week each month, with an ultimate cap of 100 (his career high). All of which is to say they probably still need Walker until at least the deadline if not longer (depending on everyone else's health) and would have six-man in August/September, then Painter probably does get saved as a bullpen weapon for the playoffs unless that's Ranger.

Andrew Painter returns, touches 100 mph: How the Phillies will manage his...

[andyb]

Phillies seem to be keeping their options open. No need for him now in the majors but they always could accelerate that if needed. And the 100 inning limit really does not have much science behind it and I imagine they would have no qualms exceeding it in the playoffs. But for now, 8 innings in April, 12-15 in May, 15-20 in June would put him in the 35-40 inning range giving him 60-65 for the second half of the season and 1 month of that (September) would be on a 14-man pitching staff.

[zambonir]

True, the 100 could also be regular season limit and then he could get another 20 or 25 in October. And even if he was somehow in the rotation and they got all the way to the World Series that's not more than 3-4 starts. If this group holds up the Phillies are also well-equipped to have two #4 playoff starters, or a tandem. A lot of those starts (by Ranger or Suarez) were de facto bullpen games and the days of Nola pushing 6-7 might be over too (and Luzardo's also going to be handled carefully).

[dicemen99]

Yes, I think this is exactly the plan for this year. 7 guys for a six-man rotation when Painter comes up (Wheeler, Sanchez, Nola, Luzardo, Suarez, Walker, Painter), with another one signed for "break glass in case of emergency" (Ross).

When we get to the playoffs, we are going to add some serious weapons to the pen - most likely Suarez and Painter.

It makes a lot of sense to me. Walker doesn't even have to keep it up as long as they get lucky injury-wise. This is the best path to success this year.

[Dirk41]

Salisbury suggests sending Marsh to AAA for some ABs and to get his momentum. If that is even a consideration, just trade him, bench him, or never expect him to come back. Seems like he has been too close to the core of this team to go down.

[zambonir]

I don't think they are there yet, but I did notice he has options (and not enough service time). Far too soon to just say that he's done. Can't really trade him for value.

But also why is he the problem but not Bohm?

Everyone in the line-up still has a positive WAR except for Kepler, Bohm and Marsh. Those guys are all scuffling but it's Harper and Turner who really have to step up. Casty is out-producing Harper and Stott is out-producing Turner (barely). That won't (or at least can't) last.

They can play Sosa in the OF more (against LHP) and they could also let Clemens play 3B once a week against RHP.

If things continue we can certainly say Dombrowski's off-season was a failure, at least in the line-up. He kept Bohm and did not configure a good OF by opting for a second LHB, with both that new player and the guy who got handed CF struggling (plus their insistence that they could both play everyday is incorrect).

I still don't see the Marsh trade as a failure in any way. The Phillies got to the World Series, won the NL East and have gotten 7.3 WAR from him in 2 1/2 seasons (and only as a 3/4-time player to boot), plus he's still cheap and controlled for three more years. Anyone else they might have traded O'Hoppe for probably wouldn't be on the team by now (i.e. the 2022 equivalent of Carlos Estevez, or a 1 1/2 season veteran OF. They also could have tried to get Soto in '22 but the team that did lost to us in the NLCS, and he would have cost a lot more than O'Hoppe).

[andyb]

Well they just need to stop playing Marsh against LHP first. He had good stats the last couple of years for good reasons - he was protected in the lineup from facing pitchers he was not good against. The experiment to make him a full time player is dragging down the rest of his stats and hurting him against pitchers he was good at.

Sometimes you can't make a player be something they aren't. Maybe you can develop that, but not the way the Phillies are doing it. It is time to give him some days off - occasionally against RHP too to get Rojas in the game more. See how that goes for a couple of weeks and then make a decision when Wilson is back.

[zambonir]

But the problem is Kepler isn't really any better. They both had a few good games early (one of which, for Marsh, prompted Thomson to swap his off-day with Kepler against a LHP), Marsh has obviously been a lot worse lately. But they have to either play one of them or play Sosa.

I also think it's too small a sample to mean anything. Marsh has 45 PAs. 28 of them are against RHP, 17 against LHP. That's a heavier load than last year but he's still only started three games against LHP, with one day off. Kepler has started two with one day off. They both have 10 starts against RHP.

But agree, more Rojas. And that should also mean using him or Sosa as PHs more

[andyb]

But the problem is Kepler isn't really any better.

652 vs 578 career OPS against LHP is better. And Kepler was over 700 last year. Remember we'll have Wilson back too so playing Kepler more at the moment makes sense. The thought that both would be good was just a bad thought. Marsh being younger was more likely to improve - we just don't have evidence of that. More wishful thinking.

[zambonir]

I just meant he hasn't been much better this year, and it's not really a meaningful number of games either way. Like, the Phillies might see three LH starting pitchers in the next 10 games - which one of them gets three, two or one starts (barring the use of Sosa who is also needed to spell Stott) until Wilson is back isn't going to make a big difference.

Of course, supposedly picking Marsh over Kepler for defense also didn't help yesterday, not because he wasn't good enough but the balls he couldn't get just couldn't be got.

I agree that as a slump-breaking strategy it might be best to just tell Marsh he's not going to face LHP and to just focus on getting his swing back against the righties. But the whole thing is a bit chicken/egg - did the Phillies really believe Marsh could play every day and therefore didn't make any other moves from a RHB OF, or did signing Kepler make them want to believe that (even as they said Kepler could play every day too).

At least Rojas is showing something.

[andyb]

Against LHP we definitely want both Sosa and Rojas in the lineup. Obviously we blew a game on their outfield communication, but I kind of want Stott to be the lefty that usually plays against LHP at the moment. Stott then Kepler then Marsh in that order.

It would have been nice to see Wilson do better this weekend in Clearwater (1-10, 4 BBs) but lots of cobwebs to work through. I would probably get him up to Reading this week and skip Jersey Shore for his Spring Training.

[phillychuck]

The problem Topper has with the lineup choices is balancing evidence from current small sample sizes, career performance, and possible improvements and regressions. Someone suggested benching struggling players above. That is just silly if the SSS performance isn't consistent with longer struggles. Any established player deserves patience when they are struggling, not just to be fair to the player, but to avoid over-reacting to high-variance results in small samples, which baseball is heavily prone to generating.

With Marsh, the career numbers and the SSS are consistent in showing he just can't consistently hit lefties, so I think you have to bench him vs. southpaws. With Bohm, he has seasons where he actually hits well which weigh against sitting him down. You could argue that he hasn't hit well for 4 months running now, and I would listen, but if you believe that (and ignore a hot spring training) you need to move on to another solution at 3B permanently, and the only solution on the table right now is Sosa, and I don't know if that would be any better in the long run. Kepler, when healthy, has been perfectly good vs righties, and his SSS right now should be discounted. He deserves patience. But you really have to go with a LF and CF platoon vs lefties, and there aren't a lot of options on the current team for that. No help on the farm right now, either. Most of the farm guys are slumping or too young to be confident in.

[andyb]

Clemens could get some spot starts for Bohm at 3B to let Bohm clear his head. Remember Bohm has a platoon split too (though his career split is much more than last year).

In general though I would keep running Bohm out there. I just wish he did more damage when he is aggressive at the plate. Bryce tries to hit home runs when he is aggressive. Bohm does not seem to hit the ball harder when he swings early in the count versus late.

[zambonir]

Yeah I may be skeptical about Bohm as a player long term (and even his improvement last year against RHP is skewed by his overall unsustainable April) but I don't think he should benched (and I suspect they are also worried that he could just spiral even worse if they did the "a few days to clear your head" thing). They need Sosa more at 2B or maybe even LF anyway. It does seem odd they haven't given Clemens one look a week though.

I guess there is one other path for tweaking/shaking up, against LHP: Schwarber in LF, Sosa at 3B, Bohm DH (to just let him focus on his ABs).

[andyb]

I guess there is one other path for tweaking/shaking up, against LHP: Schwarber in LF, Sosa at 3B, Bohm DH (to just let him focus on his ABs).

That might be a good idea occasionally though I kind of want Bryce to DH when they do that. Get him off his feet twice a month but stay in the lineup. JT is not hitting well enough to get the DH at bats.

[zambonir]

Well, Schwarber has that 1B glove! But that doesn't help Bohm. Bohm could still play 1B too I guess.