Phillies Magic Number and NL Postseason Seed Thread

[julio]

Sorry, in my mind, all that matters this regular season is winning the NL East so I have a one track mind.

Don't apologize for that, MJS. Winning the division is what you should be focused on. Wild card berths are for "a bit better than mediocre" clubs that hope to get lucky.

[MichaelJackSchmidt]

[bkeich]

Number 1 Seed is down to 9 I believe.

(For some reason it is large and bold​) [fixed it for you, bkeich. the # at the start of a line is code for headline. - J]

[zambonir]

yup, like those unimpressive '22 and '23 Phillies.

Of course it's great to win the division but it was diminished 30 years ago not just by the wild card and the schedule change but by the fact that there are now three divisions. It meant more when it was also automatic entry into the NLCS. Our real, non-mediocre goal it the best record in the NL and MLB.

[EastFallowfield]

I'd say 9 for that. Dodgers win out they get to 100 wins, Phils have 91 right now, and the tiebreaker.

[EastFallowfield]

They just decided to pick the closest number that wasn't Stott

[el-pietro]

The Phillies currently have 91 wins.
The Dodgers have 62 losses. Their highest win total they can reach is 100. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the #1 Seed is 9.
The Brewers have 64 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 98. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the guaranteed bye is 7.
The Mets have 68 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 94. Tiebreaker is undecided, so magic number for the NL East is 4.
The Braves have 70 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 92. Braves have the tiebreaker, so magic number to clinch a playoff spot 2.
However as has been stated the Braves and Mets play each other three more times, meaning they cannot both sweep and win out.
If the Braves don't sweep the Mets then their highest win total possible is 91. If the Braves do sweep the Mets then the Mets highest win total possible is 91. That means the actual magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.
For me the East is the most important thing, but once that is taken care of the Bye/#1 seed are key.

[Philsmania]

They just decided to pick the closest number that wasn't Stott

Scott Kingery is still in the organization.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies currently have 91 wins.
The Dodgers have 62 losses. Their highest win total they can reach is 100. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the #1 Seed is 9.
The Brewers have 64 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 98. Phillies have the tiebreaker so magic number for the guaranteed bye is 7.
The Mets have 68 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 94. Tiebreaker is undecided, so magic number for the NL East is 4.
The Braves have 70 losses. The highest win total they can reach is 92. Braves have the tiebreaker, so magic number to clinch a playoff spot 2.
However as has been stated the Braves and Mets play each other three more times, meaning they cannot both sweep and win out.
If the Braves don't sweep the Mets then their highest win total possible is 91. If the Braves do sweep the Mets then the Mets highest win total possible is 91. That means the actual magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.
For me the East is the most important thing, but once that is taken care of the Bye/#1 seed are key.

Thanks for the explanation! Most models--including the ones I rely upon--say it is 2 but the fact that the Braves and Mets play each other bring it down to 1.

[zambonir]

I thought I posted him did I put it in the wrong thread or never post?

[zambonir]

Oh I did it was just like 20 posts ago already.

yes apparently the computer models can't look at the schedule with enough granularity.

[EastFallowfield]

I still would maintain that the magic number for the playoffs is one only if it’s a Phillies win. Lose out, end with 71 losses, that means the Braves could lose one game and end up at 71 losses. Mets could lose two or three games and be at 70 or 71 losses. We know the Braves have the tiebreaker, and the Mets would have the tiebreaker too because the Phillies lost out which means they lost four more games this weekend to the Mets

[zambonir]

Luckily we won't have to talk about it for much longer either way. Heck, the media is already penciling in Wheeler for his NLDS Game 1 start.

[julio]

Man oh man. Reading this thread...

I know that many of you "like" the expanded post-season, with 40% of all the teams in the league "winning" a playoff spot. I don't; it debases the regular season. It's ironic, I guess, that MLB still officially refers to the regular season as the "Championship Season," notwithstanding this complete debasement.

I get it. It's all about TV money. The expanded post-season is "entertaining," an effort to get more money by engaging TV viewers who don't have... well, whatever it takes to actually care about the whole season (not to mention the longer-term story arcs, if you will, of organizational and player development). Just grab their eyes for a few weeks and get money.

But it's become such a circus that we're having a debate about what used to be a straightforward end-of-season idea: the magic number.

The Phils have the best record in baseball. An eight-game division lead, with 11 to play. There was a time when that would have meant we were definitely headed for the World Series (pre-1962), or else headed for a single league championship series, with an even shot at the Series. But now? We get a certain home-field advantage in a multi-layer post-season crapshoot. The odds that we win the Series are poor; the odds that we get to the Series are fairly poor - and these odds have little to do with the quality of our starting rotation or our bullpen, or the depth of our lineup or bench... and a whole lot to do with random luck.

I find it hard to get excited about it all; it has the feel of just another "reality TV" circus, where actually excelling in the "championship" season doesn't mean much. I mean, I'll enjoy it if the Phils survive the post-season and win out, but I don't expect it; I can do the math.

[tom81]

I know that many of you "like" the expanded post-season, with 40% of all the teams in the league "winning" a playoff spot. I don't; it debases the regular season. I

I'm one of those that like the expanded post-season and a part of the reason is because it debases the regular season. I'm 69 yo, still working full-time, and my current wife hates sports. I rarely watch regular season games; I don't have the stamina to watch them alone at night and get up at 5am to work the next day. I do watch the Phillies post season games as the tension of the post season gives me the energy to get by on little sleep LOL.

[DurhamBull]

@julio I think the system has failed because some teams are already eliminated. I prefer a system in which every team has a chance to get into the World Series, up to and including on the last day of the season. For instance, if the White Sox win their last game by a score of 107-0, I think they should be entered into the double jeopardy round in which two team mascots go head to head in a game of rock-paper-scissors, with the winner gaining the home field advantage in the hot dog eating contest, the winner of which get to use a corked bat in the home run derby which determines who gets into round one of the wheat-from-the-chaff series where teams must win a soccer match against a division III college team of their choosing. Winners advance to the first round of the wildcard series. With careful management, the baseball season can be extended to January!

[zambonir]

You can stay on my lawn but would you mind pulling up a few weeds while you're there?

I don't disagree with you, but I can't say I enjoyed the the past two seasons any less than I enjoyed 1980 or 1993. Or that I enjoyed 2011 more than 2008. And I'm not that young (if still younger than you)! How many baseball fans that need to be part of MLB's future even remember the non-wild card era, let alone 1968?

The toothpaste is out of the tube, so like a lot of people I'm in favor of making changes that reflect the new reality. Shorter seasons. Realignment. Making schedules more fair and restoring greater value to the division winners (as it is the biggest perk, arguably, goes to the 3 and 4 seeds for not having to travel in the wild card round, which also leaves them better-rested when they do leave home to start the NLDS). I'd also rather see a seven-game NLDS. The longer the series the more talent wins out, though it also becomes even more about the luck of being the healthiest team (much like hockey).

I can't say the expanded playoff is particularly enjoyable per se. Division races and just one wild card definitely made September more interesting. Of course in the alternate universe of that format Rob Thomson probably doesn't even become the team's permanent manager.

[andyb]

I am fine with the expanded playoffs. 12 is not a bad number. I think I just wish they went with a 2-division per league setup which they might get to with 32 teams. Division winners should get byes. Wild cards should face off to play the division winners.

[EastFallowfield]

I was alive for, but don’t remember, when you didn’t have to win a playoff series to get to the World Series. We wouldn’t have 1980 or 1993 or 2008 under that old system. And a few trips to the WS in years we remember as heartbreaking ones.
Some really good memories of those years when we didn’t earn a postseason in the pre 1969 era

My two cents would be a shorter regular season so it’s not November at the end, but we know that would never happen.

[Philsmania]

November is sweeps month. Hence, the networks would probably like to see the WS creep into it, just like they like the Super Bowl in February (also a sweeps month).