Phillies Lineup

[xogfog]

There are a lot of ways you could put together the Phillies lineup, but this is my initial thought. Any other ideas?

Versus RHP

1. Turner SS
2. Hoskins 1B
3. Schwarber LF
4. Realmuto C
5. Hall DH
6. Bohm 3B
7. Stott 2B
8. Castellanos RF
9. Marsh CF

Vesrus LHP

1. Turner SS
2. Hoskins 1B
3. Schwarber DH
4. Realmuto C
5. Castellanos RF
6. Bohm 3B
7. Vierling LF
8. Sosa 2B
9. Marsh CF

[allentown]

Marsh should not be playing against LHP;

[xogfog]

Who's your right handed OF option, you could play Vieling in CF, but then you don't have any other RH hitting OF? Maton hits left, Muzzioti hits left. Maybe the Phillies will add a RH hitting OF bench player, but right now, we can't field three RH hitting OF.

[andyb]

Marsh should not be playing against LHP;

That is the downside of having Hall replace Harper on the roster since Hall is a much more definite "no" against left handed pitching. We have 3 players who would often sit against LHP (Hall, Stott, Marsh). The bench has 2 right-handed replacements in Vierling and Sosa. Backup catcher is left-handed so it is up to the last roster spot which might be Maton at the moment.

I suspect they will mix and match. Maybe Stott plays more regularly and Sosa plays some outfield.

[zambonir]

This offense is loaded and the team defense still isn't that good: they can afford to have weak bats playing good defense in CF and at 2B. Plus Marsh and Stott both need to sink or swim. A day off once a week against a LH starter, sure, but no more than that.

Not to mention, if you're sitting those guys against LHP why are you ever playing Alec Bohm against RHP?

[allentown]

I'd give Sosa a chance in OF against RHP.

[ahb]

Posted this in the Turner thread, but will add here too:

I compiled the career OBP/SLG/OPS by platoon split for our top batters to think through how the team COULD set up optimal lineups once Harper is back.

I used career just to have a larger sample size. We all certainly hope that Stott will improve on his rookie numbers and that d Marsh might be able to improve upon their career numbers, and I think we all fear that Castellanos won't live up to his career numbers again, but I wanted to be consistent.

And we obviously have SSS issues, particularly for the younger players against lefties, so take all of that in context:

Obviously small sample sizes (especially for Maton), but interesting that Stott, Sosa, and Maton have reverse splits at this point.

Marsh, Bohm, and Schwarber have the biggest platoon splits, at least using OPS.

Given all of that, here is how I might set up the order vs. righties and lefties once Harper is back and DHing. This is certainly NOT a prediction of how the Thompson will set it up.

A few notes:

• We've got a lot more high OBP options vs. lefties, so I'd give Stoff a chance to lead off against righties under the thinking that he's got the potential to be a significantly better table setter against righties than his numbers have shown so far.
• Even though he's a relatively high OBP guy vs. righties, I want Schwarber's .538 slugging in the middle of the lineup against righties.
• Given how poor Bohm is vs. righties and the fact that (so far) Sosa actually hits slightly righties better, I'd do a straight platoon at 3rd with Sosa playing vs. righties. In the end, I don't think he's going to give you more offense against righties but I think it would be close enough that the D makes up for it. (The Phillies will never do this, I understand).
• Since we're able to do it against righties, I tried to split up our lefties and righties in the middle of the lineup to make it harder for opponents to play matchups with their bullpens. Otherwise, I'd flip Schwarber and Hoskins.
• Certainly odd to put Bohm leadoff against lefties, but he's got the same OBP as turner and a lower slugging percentage. You could easily flip them, though.
• Similar, Harper's OBP holds up better against lefties than his slugging does, so I have him in the 2-hole there and Turner in the 3-hole.
• Considering that Schwarber's career OPS vs. lefties is the second lowest of all these players, I'd go with a straight platoon with Vierling in left. (Again, the Phillies will never do this).
• Marsh has really stunk vs. lefties, but I'm still trotting him out there because the other options in the lineup are Schwarber (which would weaken the D in two outfield spot in order to get an 0.685 OPS in the lineup) and Maton (who I don't trust to end up hitting lefties or to handle CF regularly) and I'm hoping that with consistent playing time, he might be able to get his numbers up a little bit against lefties. Plus, this lineup is going to rake against lefties now, so I'll sacrifice the O for the D.

I'm sure that there are a million reasons to not set things up this way, so have at it. It was a fun exercise either way.

[zambonir]

Thomson did not show much inclination to change certain things about the line-up very often, the occasional differences in match-ups and off-days aside. I think if Turner is the lead-off hitter he'll be that almost every night. And he probably should be.

And you want Schwarber and Realmuto to get the most possible ABs, so they hit no lower than 4th while Harper is out (with Hoskins as the other hitter in that cluster until Harper is back). I think Fish's 1-4 regardless of pitcher is probably dead-on and then Harper hits 3rd or 4th with Hoskins dropping.

I think Fish also has it right that Schwarber would DH - if that - against LHP. He rarely got a day off.

I agree that Sosa at 3B against RHP is his most likely path to playing time. Not a platoon obviously but you get better defense. Still think they want Marsh and Stott to be everyday players. If it doesn't work out, you'll deal with that later in the season, but part of the point of the first three months of the season is to see if it can.

[andyb]

It will definitely be good to get JT more DH at bats early in the season when the DH is available. Maybe get Stubbs 2 starts a week against right-handed pitching with JT at DH for most of that. The Phillies are not an old team, but they are also certainly not a young team and playing for the long run will pay dividends over time.

[bkeich]

Great post AHB, but honestly the one thing that stands out is why hit Stott 1st? He has one of the lowest OBP, you want to minimize his at bats, not maximize them. I understand you are trying to balance LHB, RHB, but putting a guy who gets on base as infrequently as he does is a bigger problem. He should be locked in the 8th, 9th slot until he proves otherwise (with Marsh).

(Additionally, in the RH lineup I think you meant to have Sosa playing 3B, if so, I would rather see Bohm get those at bats).

Good analysis

[andyb]

Stott did have traditional OBP splits in the minors in 2021. 342/405 L/R. Reasonable to think he will have a better OBP against RHP in the future, though also I think he bats 8th or 9th until he actually proves that over the long haul. He did have an overall 331 OBP after the All Star break last year, so it is reasonable to hope he develops into more of a 350 OBP player.

I still lead off Turner though until it does not work, probably against both LH and RH pitching. Maybe a platoon of Hoskins and Schwarber should also bat second on their strong sides. Leaving Harper 3rd or 4th depending on how you want to space the lefties. I suppose you could go Schwarber-Turner-Harper against RH pitching if you want to keep Harper 3rd and also space the lefties.

[ahb]

Batting Stott first against righties would be a speculative play under the thinking that he's likely to improve his numbers (as he did over the course of the year), particularly against righties so that he has a traditional platoon split as he did in the minors.

It's also a reflection that against righties, we don't have a lot of great OBP options for the top of the lineup if you want to have Harper and Schwarber bat in the middle of the lineup (as I do). If Stott can get that OBP up to .340 or better against righties, he's as good as any other option we have. And he takes pitches.

Certainly a speculative play, though.

As for Sosa, yes - meant him to be 3B. Bohm's numbers are just so bad against righties that it doesn't seem like moving to Sosa loses you anything at the plate, and it clearly gives you an upgrade in the field.

[zambonir]

Of course if you stop playing Bohm against righties he will never improve against righties and then he's not actually a starting major league player (at any position, even if he played better defense).

[zambonir]

In his press conference Turner endorsed his friend Schwarber staying at the leadoff spot (and joked about his base stealing) but I suspect it won't be up to him.

[LoneStarPhan]

I never was a fan of Schwarber leading off. It seems to me that Turner might be better suited for the second slot in the lineup. Maybe the Phillies still do not have the ideal lead off man.

Luckily, I don't have to make out the line-up card.

[phillychuck]

Whenever analytics folks have looked at lineups, the major conclusion has been that there is very little difference between sensible lineups where you're hitting your best hitters at the top. I'm not sweating this.

[nycphils]

I really like hitting Turner right before Castellanos - while it wasn’t as pronounced as prior years, Castellanos is a monster at hitting fastballs. With the new rules restricting pickoff throws, larger bases and Turner being a base running demon, the priority in the lineup ought to be getting Castellanos fastballs to hit - and that’s most likely to happen with Turner on base ahead of him and, if not, Turner will take the extra base constantly.

He’s drastically worse on the breaking stuff, and has one of the worst chase rates generally in baseball.

Nick Castellanos Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com

[zambonir]

Interesting idea and also a bit chicken/egg if your theory works, but I'm not letting Nick C hit 2nd or 3rd. It's true that line-up construction is overrated but it's also true that your #1-3 hitters get the most ABs over the season.

Might be interesting to put him after JT, who also runs, except I think JT should hit 2nd or 3rd while Harper's out.

The fun part is really that you should ultimately end up with Hoskins and Castellanos hitting between 5th and 7th and that's because you are so loaded 1-4.

[allentown]

Should help him, and other hitters, to have Turner on base. Needn't be directly ahead of Castellanos. I think it will be a plus not to have a slow, on-base-at-a-time runner ahead of the big hitters. Too little first-to-third or second-to-home on a single this past season.

[zambonir]

Until Harper's back I suspect we'll still see Schwarber hitting 2nd or 3rd. I would not even rule out Thomson leaving him where I was, though I kinda doubt it.

Should see more from the 8-9 spots this year (assuming the youngsters improve) regardless of who's hitting 1st (or 2nd).