Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[phillychuck]

I don't know how much fangraphs adjusts their projections for the "age factor" in terms of projecting forward. If you are statistically combining age 28-32 seasons you expect a drop off or roughly comparable production, but combining age 23-25 yr old seasons I'd expect the 26 year old season to be closer to the 25, not the 23. If Marsh's career is weighted toward last season, I don't know how much to discount the BABIP vs likely improvement prior to age 27.

I'd hope Marsh would normalize around .800 ops in his prime years. Solid LF, not an all-star, even with the glove and speed. I'm fine with that.

[zambonir]

The answer is really still to find a good RHB for LF who is also playable against RHP (so that he can play LF with Marsh in CF some, don't play Rojas every day against RHP).

But that's, y'know, a starter.

I'm sure they are still going to at least bring in someone to compete with Cave and Wilson (or even be handed the bench spot). See how it plays out this year for three months and address at deadline or in off-season if a role player isn't enough.

You can't have both the current version of Nick and the Fangraphs projections version of Marsh as your corner OFs. That's why they'd be a great platoon but obviously Nick's playing time is not going to be that reduced. If Nick's still hitting (it's not like he had a bad season overall) or if Marsh can keep it going, great. If Marsh levels off but he's also facing LHP more often and getting 500-550 ABs, that's okay too, if he's showing improvement.

[andyb]

Fangraphs is mostly eliminating luck factors like BABIP from their projections. Now Marsh did have a better walk rate than their projections so that is something to look for. If his walk rate from last year is repeated, then he is likely a better player than their projections which incorporate previous year walk rates which were nowhere near as good.

I tend to think Marsh is more in the 750-775 OPS range going forward with the drop mainly due to playing full time rather than a cherry-picked platoon set of starts. That is good but not great. Certainly worthy of play in his inexpensive contract years like Bohm. If arbitration gets him closer to $10 million a year he'll need to be better.

[Austinfan]

Watching Marsh, I think there's still room for improvement, he would be patient at times, then get into streaks where he was overaggressive, then settle back into a groove - which is to be expected from a young hitter making adjustments.

With Bohm, I'm less optimistic, with almost 2000 ML PA, he's more set in his ways. Though there's still hope, he's significantly cut his K rate and improved his ISO over his three years in the majors, and a career low BABIP says he might get a little jump from luck. The problem is he's not a disciplined hitter, so he makes too much weak contact on pitches he should lay off - his "hard hit" % has declined all three seasons.

[nycphils]

Yeah JT's defensive decline as outlined in that story is distressing

He is owed $24m this year and next, but a FA after that. Not that distressing - hope he holds up and is solid at least, but MLB catching is so bad and the remaining years short enough that he should be fine even if he is somewhat overpaid at this point.

Moving him elsewhere doesn’t make sense. I just hope the Phillies aren’t crazy enough to resign him for 2025+ when he’ll be 34 even if he has a bounce back year. We have two years to find a successor.

[zambonir]

I don't care that he's overpaid, I just think the the conventional wisdom on his 2023 season was, "yeah, the offense dropped off but he's still one of the best catcher in the league." That's what was distressing about the article to me, because I didn't really notice his decline eye-test wise.

But it also matters a little that he's paid like a top four/middle-of the order offensive player, same as Nick. Because the reality is we just lost Rhys, and Bohm and Stott aren't top four offensive players either. That really does put more pressure on Nick and Marsh (or Bohm and Stott).

I don't mind if they re-sign him, just for a very different role and salary. I don't think there's going to be any "finding" of a successor in the next two years, just someone they trade for or sign in free agency when the time comes.

[allentown]

I think he's a lot more valuable than Castellanos. Partly, he fills a need for the Phillies, where Castellanos does not.

[zambonir]

Well of course he is. Probably a better hitter too, though it's not like Nick was bad last season.

But I would say Nick does fill a need. The only question is, can he actually continue to do so?

JT being a more productive bat helped compensate for Nick's poor 2022, and could have done the same for Rhys's absence and Turner's awful start too.

I just worry that the 2024 offense is built on a lot of best-case-scenarios. Some of which are realistic, but some of which might be out of reach. The team is going to be very focused on not starting poorly so I hope the likes of JT, Nick, Bohm and Marsh (and Turner for that matter) can hit right out of the gate. Or they can win with pitching of course.

[allentown]

Whwn a team has been a slower starter, as the Phillies have multiple times in recent years, I think the first place to look is at how ST is conducted.

[zambonir]

Well, they have said they are looking at it. But I don't know if that's really it. There's no magic bullet for training. I think it's more random and granular (including injuries - especially last year - and new players adjusting, and also the World Baseball Classic).

And it's still probably more important to play well in the second half (though both the 2023 Rangers and 2022 Phillies also say it doesn't matter how you play in September).

But if they want to actually have at least the pretense of hanging with the Braves instead of counting on success as a short-series team, it would help to start better. Though, they weren't actually that bad last year in April. May is what killed them.

[zambonir]

MLB starting rotation rankings right now
(according to FanGraphs):

#1 - @Braves
#2 - @Phillies
#3 - @Dodgers
#4 - @Marlins
#5 - @Reds
#6 - @BlueJays
#7 - @Mariners
#8 - @astros
#9 - @Twins

— Codify ( @CodifyBaseball ) January 3, 2024

Link via PHLY

Will the Phillies Sign Another Starting Pitcher? - PHLY Sports

[Austinfan]

They have Schram as a #6 starter, he's shown he can fill that role, at least for a couple months.
Abel and McGarry will start the season in Lehigh, along with McGowan, Schultze, Moore, McKay and maybe Baker, Martinez and Pipkin in the bullpen.
Veteran arms like Brogdon, Bellati, Nelson, etc.

So it's hard to imagine spending on an arm who isn't a significant upgrade over Ranger and Sanchez, and I doubt they would want to lose draft picks in such a deal.
More likely are more veteran arms looking for a comeback opportunity to fill out the Lehigh roster and buy time for young arms to start in Reading and work their way up, and hope to get lucky.

[zambonir]

I assume you mean Strahm, and that was only done as an emergency move because neither Sanchez nor Nelson were available at the time. Right now Dylan Covey is our #6 starter. And Strahm is too important in the pen.

Bullpen-wise Bellatti and Brogdon either make the MLB team or they're gone. And Covey as well.

But no, they are not going to sign any of the top remaining FA pitchers unless one of them becomes so unexpectedly affordable that they can't resist.

But Snell's the only one left who costs picks anyway (Gray already signed, Nola was the other).

[andyb]

I think it is pretty likely we'll bring in a AAAA starter or two for Lehigh Valley. While it would be nice if Abel or even McGarry stepped forward, we can't count on that. Having a couple of extra arms that can give you 5 innings in an emergency is something that is needed. We really have little room for error if we are counting on Sanchez to be in the rotation and Strahm to be a key middle inning relief arm.

[zambonir]

Like Dombrowski said:

“I’ve got a list of names and all that, and I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to add more, but right now, we’re not going to have much success in that regard. Eventually, once they get done with [pursuing] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, they can start looking and say, ‘Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there. Maybe that’s an opportunity to go to triple A and be in that spot.’“

Aaron Nola and then ...? What’s next for the Phillies as the offseason enters...

I think there will be some guys that are at least bigger names (if not guaranteed better pitchers) than your Covey/Nelson/Drew Hutchison types.

[Callison]

The Phils' published-rumors business has evolved to where it's actually always been: everybody is wondering.

Of all the ways for the Phils to improve, the fastest improvement might be to make a hitter out of Rojas and it's real encouraging to see Rojas face his problems and start working with Long right away. Long raised Stott and Marsh a level, so there's room to think he might raise Rojas

Wonder what Castellanos is thinking about his hitting these days? Would be nice to see him as motivated as Rojas.

Would the Phils have the best rotation in MLB if they sign Snell? Seems like the teams that really want him are waiting for each other to start the bidding, thinking the opener won't win it. With the shiny CY, Snell will be calling the shots. The Giants are desperate to sign some talent and I'd expect them to be the biggest financial competition. OTOH, the Phils are playoff ready and in Philly Snell might create the best rotation in MLB.

[phillychuck]

I think expecting Snell to repeat his success is a bad bet. His ERA was 1.50 below his advanced, adjusted ERAs (FIP, ERA+, etc.) Good luck, Giants. Snell is likely to decline dramatically in 2024.

[Austinfan]

Beware of FAs coming off peak seasons in contract years, regression to the mean should be expected (unless they're 25 or under, even then, continued performance is not guaranteed) - but the player expects to be paid based on that one season, and for teams to ignore his career history.

[zambonir]

If my team needed a #1-2 starter, could spare the draft picks and still had a ton of CBT $ to play with I'd consider Snell. But none of those things apply to the Phillies.

If there really is some crazy scenario where they replace Sanchez or trade Walker in order to sign a free agent I still don't give up the QO compensation for that particular pitcher even without any questions about his performance going forward.

I think we can take Dombrowski's comments at face value on this one, at least with free agents. The five guys are set and he'll look for a few depth pieces once they are unable to land a guaranteed rotation spot anywhere.

Trades might be another story. It makes more sense for the Phillies to pick up a higher-end starter on the deadline market should injury or performance reveal the rotation isn't strong enough. But I'm sure he will find out what teams are asking for Burnes, Cease etc. now as well. As ever the issue remains that the Phillies can barely afford to trade any prospects either (at least not from pitching).

[andyb]

Beware of FAs coming off peak seasons in contract years, regression to the mean should be expected (unless they're 25 or under, even then, continued performance is not guaranteed) - but the player expects to be paid based on that one season, and for teams to ignore his career history.

Zach Wheeler? Clearly each free agent decision should be made on the individual merits. Sometimes underperforming players that finally get healthy and have a good year or two can be really good free agent signings.