Yu Darvish was worth about 25 WAR for the first 9 seasons in the U.S. coming over at age 25. One could easily see a contract in the $10-$12 million per WAR range now, and 7-9 years from now $14-$15 million. $300 million is not really that outlandish even if you assume he has a TJ surgery and several mediocre seasons somewhere in 9 years.
It may seem expensive, but it is really not as there are not a great deal of pitchers who can average almost 3 WAR over a decade.
I just don't think that point has anything to do with the nationality of the player. Sometimes you get Stephen Strasburg too. Yamamoto's youth, stuff, accomplishments, reported work habits and the ability of teams to analyze his performance in ways that didn't even exist for MLB players 10 years ago all say he's the real deal. Not without risk but so are Nola and Wheeler.
He's also not going to get $300 million I don't think. That is likely the ceiling, with the posting fee. Unless the bidding war gets crazy. Phillies aren't going to win the bidding war so no reason to worry there.
Oh, came here assuming it had already been posted, it is now official per Gelb and Coffey that the Phillies have submitted an offer.
Yamamoto will come to Philadelphia if (i) the Phils make a competitive offer, and (ii) Yamamoto wants to come to Philadelphia. The world - and presumably Yamamoto - has seen the electric atmosphere in CPB, the brotherhood that exists in the clubhouse, and ownership's commitment to winning. Does Yamamoto want to be a part of this? That's the question that remains to be answered.
The Phillies have plenty to offer as a franchise and that alone is new. But, so do the other teams. Can't really blame him if he wants to go play with Ohtani on a team that has won its division 10 out of the last 11 years, won more than 100 games four of the last five years, and won an actual World Series. The Phillies have not done any of those things. Even once.
And then there's the California part (combination of location, Japanese community, and, in LA's case if not SF's, the weather). It seems somewhat telling that he has conducted most of this process from California.
On the other hand if he signs with the Yankees it will be for money and the brand more than a guarantee, and if he signs with the Mets or Giants it will be for money and the belief that he can help build something there.
Still skeptical he would sign here when he's never even been here. Unless there's another round of talks/visits/offers.
I agree with your overall point, but nevertheless I'm fairly certain I recall the Phillies winning at least one World Series. 
In the time period I outlined. (But smiley noted.)
Ironically, I would characterize the coverage of the Phillies' chances with Yamamoto as fairly positive, even though they aren't being characterized as frontrunners. Nobody is saying they aren't serious, or that they are only in the mix because they are known to spend money/land big fish and can be used to pressure other teams. Even though I suspect there's some truth to that as well.
I think the Phils best chance is to come in high with an opt-out after 3 years (the posting fee is probably too much to waste on anything shorter than a 3 year deal unless he would take a lower annual salary those years). If you are confident enough to pay him 250 million, then you should also be confident that if you give him a 325 million deal that he'll opt out to cash in again.
Wouldn't the posting fee apply to the whole contract with or without an opt out? So you sign someone to a 9 year/$300 million deal with a an opt-out after 3/100 the posting fee? $46.75 million in posting fee on top of the $100 million for 3 years would be a huge amount.
Guessing that MLB teams will not want to give opt-outs because of that. Have we really seen a major Asian first contract deal with an opt out?
Well, the Phillies weren't his last choice at least. (Story says the Giants think he's signing with either Dodgers, Mets or Yankees, much like everybody.)
It would be something if the Phillies were playing possum and they made an insane offer though.
As Yoshinobu Yamamoto's decision draws nearer, he has at least one contract offer of $300 million or more. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi ( @jonmorosi ) December 22, 2023
Right, but I’m saying make the first 3 years worth 15 million per, with a big raise in subsequent seasons (or they can do the deferral game) and if he leaves after 3 then at least they wouldn’t have paid him 30 million a year and the ~50 million posting fee in those 3 years. I suppose a baloon contract like that may not be too appealing.
Yeah I think any deal with an opt-out also has to be frontloaded somewhat. Like, Machado signed a 10-year, $300 million deal, collected $120 million of that in four years, and then signed a new 11-year, $350 million deal. If Yamamoto wants an opt-out he's still gonna be looking to collect 25-30 million per for the years prior to that point (whether it's three, four or five).
The player's got all the leverage here. Doubt deferrals are going to be a big factor either, especially not if he signs with the Dodgers. He'd be the guy benefitting from Ohtani's deferral, not deferring himself. A signing bonus is also pretty likely I'd think (the opposite of a deferral though it can still be spread out over the deal).
I’ve often heard sport writers compare the level of play in the top leagues of Japan and Korea to AA. It’s not the nationality of the player so much as the competition level of the league they come from.
That said, you’re right there is a lot more data available now and the pipeline of players coming from the leagues is more established.
That's not front-loaded at all, it's flat: $30 mill/yr for 4 years and thee same average for the final 6.
Yeah okay I didn't mean frontloaded so much as "not backloaded," as Fish proposed. Opt-outs are for players who think they might be even worth more three-four years from now or for players who are worth less initially because they are unproven or injured or coming off a bad year. But nobody viewed Yamamoto as unproven.
Anyway, moot now. 12 years, $325 million plus the posting fee of $50.6 million. No one but the Dodgers really could have done that, given what Ohtani did for them, but also because they can double down on the other revenue streams from having two Japanese stars.
I see that point strategically from the team perspective, though I imagine for the player to consider it the contract would have to have an even higher AAV than anticipated in the post opt-out years. So we may be talking closer to $350 million if the player only gets $15 million for each of the first 3.
Posting fee for deferred payments is another topic not broached yet. We just have not seen anyone try to do that yet and would MLB/teams argue that the posting fee should be discounted like the AAV on deferred money?
The Phillies run a pretty tight ship, I wonder if/when we'll hear what they supposedly offered. If it was less than $300M they weren't serious though it seems doubtful they were offered a chance to match or raise the $325M either. The Mets were actually the team to set that number, which the Dodgers then matched; the Yankees only bid $300M.
I could also see the Phillies not want to front load a deal with opt outs and a posting fee.
This was more about being a serious player in the Japanese market. I wonder if they have interest in that other Japanese pitcher who is more of a 4th/5th starter. Plus remember they are interested in the Cuban pitcher that pitched in Japan the last few seasons. Clearly Middleton has sent a message that they do not want to be left out of a big market.
It's certainly not rocket science, becoming a serious player. The Yankees had an in-person scout at every single one of Yamamoto's starts last year. Cashman saw at least one. I suspect the Phillies were a bit less involved (or late to the table) but they don't have to be for the next guy (in future off-seasons).
I also had thought this might be just shrewd negotiating and posturing by the Phils for a moment, but the recent apology for being wrong, though stopping short of admitting who was wrong, shows the scribes were just wrong.
I get that these people are reporting opinions and that's their job, etc. What I'm sore about is THEY DON'T KNOW ANYTHING and jump to a disastrous conclusion anyway. They could just have easily have concluded the Phils are on the verge of signing somebody. When your sources dry up and you can't tell what's going on, you gotta include a lotta IMHO, and the responsible thing to report is that the Phils are playing it real close to the vest.
The irresponsible thing to do was to guess that nothing is going to happen because you don't know about it.
They weren't guessing. They had sources. Including within the Phillies. The Phillies told people they were interested in Yamamoto. They also told people they didn't expect to go crazy for him. And they told people they didn't expect to get him. None of those things were necessarily contradictory. And they were all true.
