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Sep 2023
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Dec 2023
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zambonir
Dec '23
allentown

I'm not opposed to the team beginning to trade from depth before this window closes, especially since not all of these prospects - particularly the pitchers - will pan out. But that being the case I'd much rather they had six or eight guys to trade from rather than three or four.

Would I trade Abel, Sanchez and one other piece for Valdez or Corbin Burnes (assuming he took extension though he should also cost less since he'll cost more in $)? Sure. But that would mean they Phillies have no cheap young pitching arriving in 2025 or 2026 if Painter doesn't work out.

And Miller is still the only thing we have resembling a future position player starter who is not defense-first (we hope). I consider Crawford or Rojas to be more tradeable (but not yet).

phillychuck
Dec '23

Save the money, honestly. Way too much for a guy with so much bust potential.

Matt_Winkelman
Dec '23

Not sure where the bust potential comes from on Yamamoto?

He has spent the last 5 years as one of, if not the best pitcher in the second best pro league in the world, and did it from ages 20 to 24. Even in the public sphere we have enough data to know what his pitches look like. His fastball in March in the WBC was 94-97 vs Australia with vertical movement close to the Spencer Strider space, and we know due to his height and delivery that he comes in flat to the plate with it (which plays up with the "rising" fastball). His splitter has great drop and run, and appears to come from the same arm speed and delivery as the fastball. He has a low 90s, high spin cutter. The curveball might be too big and slow to be a real weapon, but I wouldn't bet against there being some adaptation. Also he has a long history of throwing quality strikes.

So essentially you have a pitcher with top 10-15 stuff (and stuff as we perceive on MLB pitchers, pretty conventional with exception of a splitter vs a changeup), with a long track record of high level performance, who is only 25. His bust potential is that he breaks, but there is nothing that says he is riskier than any other pitcher.

zambonir
Dec '23

Much as we still say things about the Phillies based on the way the Phillies were in 1983 or 2003, I think the concerns about Yamamoto are based on a different era of information about both foreign baseball and pitchers in general. Clearly none of the teams have these concerns!

I don't think there's much chance of Yamamoto playing for the Phillies but I don't see him as any riskier than giving Wheeler 4-5 years (seems unikely he'll take three) or giving up two prospects for Valdez, or trading for someone you also have to extend.

phillychuck
Dec '23
1

Matt, they use pitchers with different rest (5-6 days) in Japan, as I'm sure you know. My concern about bust potential is that he's significantly below the minimum height for a typical MLB starting pitcher, has never pitched on "normal" MLB rest, and shorter pitchers are thought to be more prone to arm issues. Even Pedro Martinez was taller than he is. If he were 6'1" or above I'd have much less concern.

I'd rather invest the money in pitcher who has shown he can handle a MLB innings load on traditional rest, or at least fits the physical profile of pitchers who survive the MLB workload.

It's a lot of money...a big bet on projecting success for a "unicorn" with very little supporting evidence of that kind of player succeeding. It's not my money, though...

Of course, if the team that signs him is right about him, with the big risk comes big rewards. It just feels like a long-shot bet to me.

Matt_Winkelman
Dec '23

They do, so do most amateurs and minor leaguers. Even in the majors more and more pitchers are going 5 days of rest. Is the "minimum height" just bias? Just look at the current FAs, Sonny Gray 5'10", Marcus Stroman 5'7", Julio Urias 6'0" (using as a height example, his off the field disqualifies him). Aaron Nola is listed at 6'2" but it isn't exactly a normal MLB frame and he has been one of the most durable starters in baseball. Framber Valdez is listed at 5'11".

phillychuck
Dec '23

To a certain extent I agree with you. They do indeed use amateurs and minor leaguers on longer rest. But, to be fair, they don't pay $300 million to sign amateurs or minor leaguers, partly because of the uncertainty of holding up to a MLB workload.

If MLB moves to a different usage pattern that mitigates the risk with Yamamoto. I also didn't realize there were quite as many sub 6'0" starters in MLB now. Phillies have been extreme for a long time in their affection for taller pitchers...

bkox
Dec '23

Well we maybe already have. Yamamoto averaged about 7.5IP per game over the last 3 seasons. in 21 and 22 he threw the same amount of innings (193) Wheeler threw last season. He just did it in 6 less starts. So would limiting him to 6IP per start (exactly what Wheeler averaged in 2023) make up for the extra 6 starts

Callison
Dec '23

Nattering nabobs of negativism backing up like ballerinas:

"...With the projected price tag to sign the Japanese right-hander continuing to increase, it was thought that ownership and the front office would not be interested in spending that much money on another player."

"It was thought" seems to mean "I thought and wrote".

When you're playing a high-stakes poker hand, you don't need some observer, with nothing of his own in the game. to be chirping that your hand is hopeless and you really don't care if you win, especially when he doesn't KNOW anything. Hard to believe a couple of you guys think that stuff is just peachy.

The Phils are a long shot for Yamamoto. Everybody knows it. DON'T PRINT IT. Let the Phils play the hand.

Thanks to PC for reminding everybody that Yamamoto is not without risk. OTOH, most of MLB is all over this guy. They are not even slowed down by the risk factor. Tells me the Phils should be confident going forward as everybody else is.

The Phils look good because they are already playoff level AND they have a strong pen. Yamamoto could win a lot of 6-inning games with the Phils and protect his arm, maybe set some records. In addition, rumor has it the Phils might be opening 3 or 6 new Japanese restaurants.

allentown
Dec '23

MLB doesn't need to 'move to' anything and the Phillies don't have to wait until a consensus of teams emerges around a new SP paradigm. The 6-man rotation has already been used in baseball. I'd like to see the Phillies go that route. If one of the starters goes down, you simply switch to a 5-man rotation.

bkox
Dec '23

Journalists dont work for the team. They cover the team. Its their job to write the news and opinions regardless of whether that helps or hurts the team. Which is does neither. Nothing they print is a secret around the league.

andyb
Dec '23
allentown

Baseball has gone more towards the 6-day rotation than the 6-man rotation. No more skipping the 5th starter when there is an off day. During the course of the season one can probably stay on a 6-day rotation with 5 starters about 60%-70% of the time. A dozen bullpen games and you have a de facto 6-day rotation with 5 starters.

We used to skip 5th starters. Now we don't.

julio
Dec '23

Why not print an opinion, or print what some in the front office may be leaking? What is the damage from printing it?

allentown
Dec '23

Fans don't like to have their expectation/temporary anticipation of a big potential signing dampened. Of course, that's exactly why the team leaks that it isn't going to happen and why the Phillies quickly traded Lee while only talking to one team and winding up with no value back for him. The Phillies fear being tarred by fan expectations which have no chance of happening. Keeping Lee/Halladay/Hamels should have happened. We might well have one more WC and parade if the owners had been flexible. Wirh the Dodgers' binge, I think the Phillies need both Wheeler and Yamamoto to get back to the WS.

zambonir
Dec '23
1

Isn't the ostensible origin of the "nattering nabobs" phrase when someone had a problem with the media printing unflattering things that were true?

zambonir
Dec '23
allentown

It's true that having three aces probably helps you get get out of the NLCS but in the current playoff era it doesn't necessarily help you get there.

Regardless, there is nothing about Yamamoto specifically that is needed for the Phillies to keep up with the Dodgers. They might not even ever face the Dodgers (still hasn't happened twice now). But they could get a different pitcher, if the need (and available payroll) calls for it. That might happen at the deadline anyway - this might be the year they don't settle for a Thor or Lorenzen if there's an injury or Sanchez isn't for real or Walker or Nola disappoint (relative to their respective expectations).

But Yamamoto specifically is more about what happens without Wheeler (potentially) and beyond, not keeping up with the Dodgers now.

If the reports are true, we won't be talking about it much longer. I feel confident saying that if he isn't actually coming to Philadelphia (they came to him, in LA) or at least having a second round of meetings the Phillies are not finalists. If we hear otherwise in the next few days or if it actually drags all the way until January 4 and there's still a chance, great.

allentown
Dec '23
zambonir

Unless it's Faux News or other regions of the Murdoch Machine, that is the major source of ire at the media. The second leading cause is among PR types who, despite their best efforts, can't get the media to pick up their story.

EDmuch
Dec '23

"Nuttering nabobs of negativity" was Spiro Agnew's phrase describing the media that was on his tail and also Tricky Dick's

zambonir
Dec '23

I did have to Google it and apparently it's an urban legend that he said it about the media. It was originally directed at some anti-Nixon political candidates in 1970. But, he was always (and already) at war with the media too, and the two things were eventually conflated. By, lol, the media.