Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[Austinfan]

Abel has a good shot at being promoted after the All-star break if he gets off to a good start, and if Painter recovers from surgery (high probability these days) after the All-star break in 2025. So to have a solid rotation, and two top young pitching prospects in the wings, is a good start.

I rhink what could really help is Brogdon finding his changeup, add him and Kerkering, and we won't miss Kimbrel.
They have a bunch of hard throwing RPs at Reading and Lehigh last year, they just need one to take a step up.

[Callison]

I dislike the sports scribes saying the Phils won't really compete for Yamamoto. Why not just let the hand play out instead of predicting a loss? If you think that way and you're a sports scribe for the Phils, keep it to yourself. We'll know soon enough. The financial problems of signing Yamamoto and keeping Wheeler - GZ, the Phils should be so lucky.

Similarly, some scribes predict the Phils won't make any big moves. They THINK this because they don't know about any.

But I guess we'll be reading stuff like this all along the way...

[zambonir]

That was not a prediction, that was a credible journalist citing credible anonymous sources, plural - which are likely within the Phillies' front office. I believe another reporter, also with sources, said that the Phillies were only all-in on Yamamoto before they signed Nola, and now it's more due diligence/you never know.

Also not a reporter's job to have feelings about what the team does (including winning or losing).

[allentown]

Reporters' job is to report the facts and credible talk-around-the-league. Asking them to embargo unfavorable news until it becomes public is asking them to help fans maintain a false belief in baseball Santa Claus. They are treating us as adults, not toddlers in need of Santa. The Phillies have clearly established a pattern, over decades, of meeting with and expressing interest in major foreign FA, seemingly as a PR strategy. Admittedly, we aren't a top destination for Asian stars, but we've been beyond tepid in our pursuit of Cuban stars, where we aren't at the same disadvantage. Then there is the fact that the Phillies want to re-sign Wheeler and that doesn't leave the kind of $ to sign a foreign star. The Phillies seem almost xenophobic in there lack of interest in foreign star players. MAG was the only Cuban we gave significant $ to and that seemed a PR exercise on a par with the two Koreans from way back who got $2 mill from us. We signed MAG after other teams stepped away considering him too injured to sign. Turned out the other teams were correct. He still did better than the two Koreans who elicited the comment from a team employee as they arrived stat-side: "these don't look like the guys we signed."

[zambonir]

Yamamoto said to be meeting with Yanks and Mets a second time; are teams out if they only get one meeting? We shall see (supposedly Boston and SF have already made their offers of $300M+).

Meanwhile, note from Rosenthal

Rosenthal: Yankees need more pitching with or without Yamamoto, plus more Ohtani...

The Phillies might be a long shot for Yamamoto, but their pursuit of him is symbolic of their heightened attempts to establish a foothold in Asia.

Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies’ president of baseball operations, learned after taking over in Dec. 2020 that the team was short on Asian scouting. Over the past two years, he has expanded the Phillies’ international operation, directing assistant GM Jorge Velandia to focus on Asia in addition to Latin America.

Velandia became more active traveling to Asia. So did many U.S. scouts who work for the team. The Phillies also hired more Asian scouts, and now have two based in Japan, one in Taiwan and one in Korea. Their new international scouting director, Derrick Chung, is Korean-American.

[andyb]

One more upper minors arm. Missed a couple of years with TJ and the pandemic but came back throwing a bit harder. HS pick who just reached free agency relatively quickly. Reading rotation potentially. Clearly we have a deficit in upper minors depth pitching.

12/15/23 : Phillies sign RHP Max Lazar to minor league contract

[fish]

One more upper minors arm. Missed a couple of years with TJ and the pandemic but came back throwing a bit harder. HS pick who just reached free agency relatively quickly. Reading rotation potentially. Clearly we have a deficit in upper minors depth pitching.

He's interesting, seems like he needs some refinement in the pitching lab. His delivery looks over the top, but low. His fastball looks like it hops when it's high and flat when it's at the knees. Breaking ball looks very inconsistent- looks like it plays well when it sweeps down to his glove hand side but otherwise a lot of hittable offerings. He looks like a candidate for the split change!

On a separate note, the Phils would be one of the clubs checking in on Framber Valdez, right? I'd be about as excited about him as I would Yamamoto.

[zambonir]

On a separate note, the Phils would be one of the clubs checking in on Framber Valdez, right? I'd be about as excited about him as I would Yamamoto.

I dunno, you think? They'd probably still have to offload Walker in a separate deal, or perhaps include Sanchez in the trade. But it would surely cost another big chip, if not two. And all the teams thinking about Burnes or Bieber would come in with higher offers.

We certainly haven't heard anything about the Phillies being in on Cease either.

I personally can't believe the Astros would trade him to avoid the tax/make room for relief pitching, which seems to be where they are. But owners certainly have been known to do it!

[fish]

I dunno, you think? They'd probably still have to offload Walker in a separate deal, or perhaps include Sanchez in the trade. But it would surely cost another big chip, if not two. And all the teams thinking about Burnes or Bieber would come in with higher offers.

They have the chips to make that kind of move- Painter, Abel, Crawford, Kierkering, Miller...these guys are premium, not to mention the value Sanchez brings as a major league ready left handed starting pitcher. They all of course have real value to the Phillies future, but it's a no-brainer to give up 2 of them in a larger package for another rotation anchor.

[zambonir]

Well, I guess that's what I'm asking. Do they really have the chips to make it a no-brainer? And is Framber really an ace/anchor? Granted his down year was still great for most people. I'm probably just too recently remembering his post-season (not the one against us, the last one).

With Framber I guess the question is would you rather have him or Wheeler for three years? Because Wheeler only costs you money.

And Framber is better than Yamamoto now of course, and maybe always, but the latter you are betting on youth and having him for 10 years (and it still only costs you money).

[allentown]

(and it still only costs you money).

That's the huge part.

[zambonir]

I'm not opposed to the team beginning to trade from depth before this window closes, especially since not all of these prospects - particularly the pitchers - will pan out. But that being the case I'd much rather they had six or eight guys to trade from rather than three or four.

Would I trade Abel, Sanchez and one other piece for Valdez or Corbin Burnes (assuming he took extension though he should also cost less since he'll cost more in $)? Sure. But that would mean they Phillies have no cheap young pitching arriving in 2025 or 2026 if Painter doesn't work out.

And Miller is still the only thing we have resembling a future position player starter who is not defense-first (we hope). I consider Crawford or Rojas to be more tradeable (but not yet).

[zambonir]

So now we've got Lauber reporting one thing and Coffey another. Still feels like PR to me but Dombrowski is also pretty good at playing possum and surprising, especially when his own signs off on the bill.

Phillies expect to be ‘aggressive’ as bidding for Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets...

[phillychuck]

Save the money, honestly. Way too much for a guy with so much bust potential.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Not sure where the bust potential comes from on Yamamoto?

He has spent the last 5 years as one of, if not the best pitcher in the second best pro league in the world, and did it from ages 20 to 24. Even in the public sphere we have enough data to know what his pitches look like. His fastball in March in the WBC was 94-97 vs Australia with vertical movement close to the Spencer Strider space, and we know due to his height and delivery that he comes in flat to the plate with it (which plays up with the "rising" fastball). His splitter has great drop and run, and appears to come from the same arm speed and delivery as the fastball. He has a low 90s, high spin cutter. The curveball might be too big and slow to be a real weapon, but I wouldn't bet against there being some adaptation. Also he has a long history of throwing quality strikes.

So essentially you have a pitcher with top 10-15 stuff (and stuff as we perceive on MLB pitchers, pretty conventional with exception of a splitter vs a changeup), with a long track record of high level performance, who is only 25. His bust potential is that he breaks, but there is nothing that says he is riskier than any other pitcher.

[zambonir]

Much as we still say things about the Phillies based on the way the Phillies were in 1983 or 2003, I think the concerns about Yamamoto are based on a different era of information about both foreign baseball and pitchers in general. Clearly none of the teams have these concerns!

I don't think there's much chance of Yamamoto playing for the Phillies but I don't see him as any riskier than giving Wheeler 4-5 years (seems unikely he'll take three) or giving up two prospects for Valdez, or trading for someone you also have to extend.

[phillychuck]

Matt, they use pitchers with different rest (5-6 days) in Japan, as I'm sure you know. My concern about bust potential is that he's significantly below the minimum height for a typical MLB starting pitcher, has never pitched on "normal" MLB rest, and shorter pitchers are thought to be more prone to arm issues. Even Pedro Martinez was taller than he is. If he were 6'1" or above I'd have much less concern.

I'd rather invest the money in pitcher who has shown he can handle a MLB innings load on traditional rest, or at least fits the physical profile of pitchers who survive the MLB workload.

It's a lot of money...a big bet on projecting success for a "unicorn" with very little supporting evidence of that kind of player succeeding. It's not my money, though...

Of course, if the team that signs him is right about him, with the big risk comes big rewards. It just feels like a long-shot bet to me.

[Matt_Winkelman]

They do, so do most amateurs and minor leaguers. Even in the majors more and more pitchers are going 5 days of rest. Is the "minimum height" just bias? Just look at the current FAs, Sonny Gray 5'10", Marcus Stroman 5'7", Julio Urias 6'0" (using as a height example, his off the field disqualifies him). Aaron Nola is listed at 6'2" but it isn't exactly a normal MLB frame and he has been one of the most durable starters in baseball. Framber Valdez is listed at 5'11".

[phillychuck]

To a certain extent I agree with you. They do indeed use amateurs and minor leaguers on longer rest. But, to be fair, they don't pay $300 million to sign amateurs or minor leaguers, partly because of the uncertainty of holding up to a MLB workload.

If MLB moves to a different usage pattern that mitigates the risk with Yamamoto. I also didn't realize there were quite as many sub 6'0" starters in MLB now. Phillies have been extreme for a long time in their affection for taller pitchers...

[bkox]

If MLB moves to a different usage pattern that mitigates the risk with Yamamoto.

Well we maybe already have. Yamamoto averaged about 7.5IP per game over the last 3 seasons. in 21 and 22 he threw the same amount of innings (193) Wheeler threw last season. He just did it in 6 less starts. So would limiting him to 6IP per start (exactly what Wheeler averaged in 2023) make up for the extra 6 starts