Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

zambonir 2024-02-18 19:23:04 UTC #1329

Haha yes. I think I will just call him Harrison for the rest of the season.

BostonRoss 2024-02-18 19:47:48 UTC #1330

I am still baffled by the negativity about the Merrifield signing. Why are people so concerned about a guy who is replacing Pache, or maybe Cave. Is it really a risk that those guys will be so much better that it hurts the Phillies in 2024?

It seems that people are dissing Merrifield because he used to be much better than he is now. But he's still better than Pache and Cave (and he was better even in September 2023 when he was so bad). Pache cannot hit RHP, and Cave cannot hit LHP.

It also seems that people are concerned that Merrifield will take away playing time from Rojas or Marsh. If he does, and it's not because of injury or poor performance by the others, then that's a bigger worry than Merrifield's presence. Do we want to keep Cave and Pache so that Thomson won't be so tempted?

I know he's 35, and so do the Phillies. He wasn't signed to take a regular role. If he has fallen off a cliff a la Harrison, then he won't play. Is there evidence that most 35 year olds who fall off drastically from a nearly 1.000 OPS at 34 1/2 for only two months are completely finished?

zambonir 2024-02-18 20:01:28 UTC #1331

My understanding is that the Merrifield deal plus the official Bohm salary took the Phillies from the first tax threshold to the second, though that's not a new tier for them. And they were probably going to spend that $7 million (which is all that counts against this year's payroll and AAV) on someone (or two someones). So it doesn't really change the picture at the deadline, nor were they ever likely to take on enough salary at the deadline to reach Tier 3. If they end up needing something really shiny and expensive there will be money paid by the selling team.

My issue with Merrifield is I wanted a different player. A better player, even if it meant potentially taking away playing time from Rojas or Marsh. Never thought both Pache and Cave would make the Opening Day roster and would be fine if neither of them do (but I do still believe Pache would put up more WAR than Merrifield in LF). For $8 million I think there will still prove to be better options and I'm not so sure that Grichuk wasn't a better one for $1.5 million. A LHB with Merrifield's fielding skill set also might have been good. Yeah, he's shown he can hit RHP but that was when he could hit. That might still make him better than Bohm against RHP but he hasn't actually played much 3B.

I would say there definitely is that evidence. Like, most of them, yes. The entire body of work on players over 33 and 34. The ones who aren't are outliers.

allentown 2024-02-18 20:03:15 UTC #1332

Well, as intimated by Zambonir, I think Merrifield is actually replacing most of Sosa's role. It's not just 26-man roster spots, it's also playing time. I agree that Merrifield is unlikely to be worse than Cave and that Cave really doesn't have a Phillies future, but... I think Pache is a better player than Merrifield and, at age 24 last year, has a chance to be a lot better going forward. We just paid $8 million for a below-average fielder's age 35 season. Note, that in 95 ABs Pache had the same rWAR as Merrifield. He didn't cost much. Also, note that between Pache and Merrifield, only one had an OPS+ as high as 100 and only one had a dWAR which was positive. In both cases, Merrifield was not the one on the positive side of the comparison.

BostonRoss 2024-02-18 21:33:45 UTC #1333

I guess I disagree that Sosa is being replaced here. The Phillies have two backup outfielders and want to replace one with someone with more positional flexibility.

I agree that Pache is much better than Merrifield defensively, but that’s much less important with Rojas playing CF. And Pache’s period of good offense was very short, and nonexistent after his injury. Despite his youth, he doesn’t seem likely to repeat it.

LoneStarPhan 2024-02-18 21:49:16 UTC #1334

Another pitcher signed to minor league contract

RHP Ricardo Pinto reportedly has signed a minor league contract with the Phillies. Ricardo pitched in the Phillies minor league system from 2012 to 2017.

allentown 2024-02-18 22:36:09 UTC #1335

Maybe he repeats or even progresses beyond it with just a full recovery from injury and another year of experience. Merrifield also didn't end the season well. I didn't say Sosa was being replaced here, although Zambonir may well be correct that he is now on the trade block. What I meant to say is that Sosa is in danger of losing a big part of his role and ABs to Merrifield, who likely will be given some IF time and all of Sosa's potential OF time. Sosa may be reduced to little more than the guy who replaces Turner one game a week and comes in for IF defense late in games. Sosa had 300 PA last season; with Merrifield in the fold, I doubt he logs 150 PA this season. Merrifield had 592 PA last season. Being DD's buddy and being paid $8 million, I expect he won't be cut much below 400 PA. Cave will be gone, and I won't miss him at all, but he only had 184 PA last season. The bulk of Merrifield's PAs will come from other players. I expect Sosa to be the prime victim.

allentown 2024-02-18 22:41:25 UTC #1336

He stank in his two brief MLB stints but is only 30, so not a bad experiment for ST. Never a big K guy, at least by current status, and always had a big problem with BB.

zambonir 2024-02-18 22:53:13 UTC #1337

I don't think Dombrowski had any prior connection to Merrifield. And I do have some faith that the Phillies wouldn't make this move if their analytics team and manager/hitting coach didn't think it was a good idea. But that was also true of Josh Harrison last year.

I think Marsh loses the most playing time to Merrifield (followed by Sosa when Marsh replaces him in CF). But yeah, if Stott needs a day off it probably goes to Merrifield now. And they've already said they want him to play 3B too.

Sosa was never going to play as much this year as he did last year (when Bohm had to play 1B and neither Ellis nor Clemens ultimately stuck). I just think he makes sense on a team that needs him more, and it doesn't make sense to bring in another RH utility guy (but then it really never made sense to sign the RH Harrison on top of Sosa either. At least Merrifield is more of a proven OF).

I don't think the presence of Rojas in CF is relevant to the ability of Pache vs. Merrifield in LF. Sure, if Merrifield rediscovers his bat, his defense doesn't matter and he'd be more vaulable than a presumably scuffling Pache. But if they are both 85 OPS+ players Pache is better. And I still like Pache's chances of improving and thriving in a part-time platoon role than I do Merrifield's in a broader role, but he's probably better off on another team where he can play CF more too.

andyb 2024-02-18 22:53:36 UTC #1338

Stott did not play an inning of SS last year. Assume the backup there is still Sosa's job. I really am not too excited to see Stott lose ABs potentially at 2B other than resting once or twice a month. If Merrifield plays it should be mainly in LF even if he has the flexibility to play elsewhere. Sosa should be the main backup at SS and 3B. I guess it will be Merrifield at 2B even though that should probably be Sosa too.

My guess is Merrifield gets 200-300 plate appearances absent injuries or a demotion from Rojas. If Rojas wins the opening day CF job then there is a strong chance Pache is gone. So sliding Marsh over and playing Merrifield in LF is the main backup option. Not sure any of us here feel too good about that.

andyb 2024-02-18 23:00:20 UTC #1339

One more player from the minor league free agent bargain bin.

Not much success in quite a while.

zambonir 2024-02-18 23:00:32 UTC #1340

Turner started 153 games last year, plus 2 at DH. And that was in a year he struggled! 160 the year before. So even if they did try Stott it wouldn't add up to much, and leaves very little for Sosa. He had 39 PAs as a SS last year, 242 as a 3B.

Of course he also wasn't especially good at 3B. Had his struggles in the field and isn't good at the plate (including against RHP and it's not like they are going to sit Bohm against LHP).

andyb 2024-02-18 23:24:47 UTC #1341

Sosa played much more 3B early in the year when Bohm was at 1B. That should not happen much this year. I DO however think that Sosa has the capability of being good at 3B defensively and Merrifield really doesn't. But the lack of a left-handed backup option means Bohm plays most of the time.

LoneStarPhan 2024-02-18 23:56:02 UTC #1342

I expect that both Merrifield and Sosa will be a part of the four-man bench when the season starts. The other two spots will be a catcher and an outfielder.

Playing time for the bench is very dependent on injuries. Losing any starter for a couple weeks or more will provide a temporary starting position for someone. Who gets how much playing time will also depend on who is doing well or who is not.

zambonir 2024-02-19 00:56:29 UTC #1343

It will all fall together when they sign Bellinger and send Rojas to AAA

Austinfan 2024-02-19 03:41:22 UTC #1344

I think the logic behind Merrifield is that he did play well the first half and wore down. So if you limited him to 200-300 PA, you might get first half Merrifield for the whole season.

Last season, he hit .303/.351/.420 in 396 plate appearances through July 31.
In the final two months, he hit only .212/.250/.288 in the season’s final 196 plate appearances.

So if you can get .771 OPS Merrifield backing up 3 or 4 spots, that's worth adding to the roster.

allentown 2024-02-19 04:45:14 UTC #1345

Let's hope that's the way it plays out.

phillychuck 2024-02-19 15:09:37 UTC #1346

I'm not sure that the projection runs that way when you are talking about a player who was always a regular. Maybe less playing time translates to less fatigue, but for many if not most players who were formerly regulars, less playing time translates to being less sharp, and you get their floor rather than their ceiling. I don't know how to predict which of these effects will prevail in Merrifield's case. I don't know that I would spend $8M trying to find out...

zambonir 2024-02-19 16:24:35 UTC #1347

The PHLY guys love the signing and predict he gets 3-4 starts a week. He would have to be back to his first-half self if that's the case (though that would still only add up to around 200-250 PAs, not 399, especially if he's pulled for defense routinely).

I don't think it will be a problem for him to be sharp with less playing time though. It really all depends on his body and bat speed (and foot speed for that matter). The idea that he is benefitting from fewer reps is at least a good theory. He may also just benefit from the off-season.