Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[LoneStarPhan]

Speculation that Turnbull replaces Covey as the long man in the pen and emergency starter. FanGraphs has already displaced Covey and added Turnbull to the Phillies bullpen on their Roster Resource - Depth Chart for the Phillies.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

Phillies continue to bring in arms to compete for the roster slots this spring.

[zambonir]

That's like buying a cup of coffee. Of course he's a guy DD drafted.

Speaking of cheap players, one of the blogs noted that only $500K of Cave's $1,000,000 is guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means, other than they could DFA him and pay him that if he takes an AAA assignment (which he presumably would given the money and every other team would have passed on him in that scenario).

This signing would seem to threaten Covey's spot as well, if Turnbull does make the team that is.

[Aquapong]

Sure…pile up arms and play whomever performs.

[zambonir]

It's also insurance. If our current rotation 1-5 breaks Clearwater in perfect health, let Covey and Turnbull fight it out (though it probably can't make Covey feel too good that the other guy makes more money and has more incentives). If not one of these guys (or Allard) is the 5th starter (Strahm presumably stays in the pen).

[zambonir]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Phillies and right-hander Spencer Turnbull agree to a one-year deal

[fish]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Pretty similar stuff as Lorenzen…when he’s healthy.

[andyb]

Clearly they wanted starting depth. All it takes is one injury also for the staff to carry another pitcher (i.e. Covey and Turnbull). They are spending money on players they might not use, so that is interesting and a little refreshing.

[phillychuck]

Covey projects to about 0 fWAR by the prediction engines, Turnbull to about 0.5 fWAR. On that basis he's an upgrade. They have Covey at about 50 IP and Turnbull at about 75, although there is some variance in Turnbull's projected workload which is probably injury-related.

Throw them both at a wall and see who sticks, I guess...

[zambonir]

We kind of saw that same willingness to spend with all the 60-day DL moves in 2022. Technically they could still release either Turnbull or Covey before their salaries become guaranteed in ST though teams rarely seem to do that.

With full health one of them plus Brogdon still has to be traded or snuck through waivers if they want an optionable arm at the bottom of the pen.

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought. Not that I think the Phillies should have kept him).

[Austinfan]

Turnbullis is also another year away from TJ surgery, which makes him a good upside play. Maybe he comes to camp and surprises with his old velocity.

[zambonir]

Also a Boras client. Phillies like Boras clients.

[andyb]

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought.

I am wondering if Lorenzen will be reduced to something like a 1 year/$5 million deal with incentives because I think most teams look at him as a swingman rather than a starter. He just has not shown he can handle starter innings.

[zambonir]

In a vacuum I would have thought he could still get $7-8 million (Matt Strahm makes $7.5) but the fact that he wasn't able to even show any value as a reliever for the Phillies had to hurt him. I would think there are still some jobs out there though, market is still just frozen by Boras, just like with the OFs.

Also, MLBTR reminds that Phillies roster is full. Not that there aren't plenty of candidates, but someone's gotta go for Turnbull.

[BostonRoss]

I think depth is a problem for the Phillies offense. Sosa is OK, but everyone else is a below average hitter and, other than Pache, is not above average on defense either. I'd like them to sign the best LH hitting outfielder they can. Assuming Eddie Rosario can't be had, could Robbie Grossman? He's better than Cave. Brad Miller has payed the OF. I wouldn't mind seeing a backup catcher better than Stubbs, but the pickings are thin.

[zambonir]

Why LHB though? I still think Pache and Rojas are redundant and a good RHB would get playing time in LF for Marsh (and if they can hit RHP themselves could get even more time with Marsh in CF some). Though I'm certainly not opposed to upgrading on Cave.

The bench is always a bit of a Catch-22 if you don't have quality young players available. Last year's team still got by fine with Cave (even when he had an appalling stretch at 1B) and Clemens and Sosa but I'm not sure I'd want to repeat that if a starting corner IF or OF got hurt. I think Miller is basically Josh Harrison at this point.

Something will happen. I'm not sure a single interesting OF or bench bat has signed a guaranteed deal in the recent weeks that we've been talking about this. Everyone is still Waiting For Bellinger.

[BostonRoss]

The way I look at it is that everyone on the bench is replacement value except Sosa, who may be a little better. Pache was better in limited time last year, but he doesn't hit RHP. His main value is that if they pinch-hit for Rojas, he can play a good CF. I suppose he could also be a late inning defensive replacement for Castellanos.

But Cave is the only one who would pinch-hit for Rojas, and he's a poor option. There has to be someone better out there. I'm not sure that Robbie Grossman is waiting for Bellinger.

I disagree that Miller is as bad as Harrison. He wasn't very good for the Rangers, but he was hurt a lot of the time. Seems more worth having around than Cave.

[Austinfan]

Caves and Clemons both blew their chances, got enough PA to show if they were more than AAA+ and failed.
Pache is someone they'll be more patient with, both due to age and defensive skill.
Has Stubbs hit his expiration date?

Problem is there just isn't a lot at the top of the farm system right now.
So they'll probably make minor additions the next few weeks to add options.

[phillychuck]

Cave and Clemens (this time spelled correctly) didn't"blow" their chances. They just didn't really capitalize on them last year. Given their roster status and the frequency of injuries in the big leagues, they may get other chances this year. I'm really offended by fan viewpoints that label players as "chokers" or having "blown" chances. These are real people, young men pursuing their dreams, and I am perfectly happy when one of those guys gets another opportunity, seemingly well after they have failed repeatedly and "blown" other chances. The word "blown" has way too much finality associated with it.

There is only finality in hindsight, when careers are over.

Ask Chris Coste.

"It's not over 'till it's over."

[zambonir]

Cave and Clemens are completely different in my book. One is 27 and still has an option. The other is 31 and doesn't. It'd be nice if Cave can still find his game but I can root for him and not want him on the team at the same time. I hope Nick Maton and Luke Williams and Dalton Guthrie all still get their chances too, but realistically it's a cruel and difficult game.

I don't think "blown" is really that loaded a word though (and not the same thing as choking). It's accurate. Cave and Clemens both got the chance to start at premium offensive positions on a World Series-caliber team and didn't make the most of it. Unlike Rojas they are neither young enough nor good enough to get another chance. Cave would be better off with a bad team and more playing time to sink or swim. Clemens is a prisoner of his option as they will likely keep him for depth but that still probably beats belonging to three different teams in a year like some of those other guys mentioned above.

Chris Coste types are rare, that's what made him such a nice story.

[bkox]

But here is the thing.. We say "didnt make the most of it" like they didnt try or werent coachable. It comes across like its a negative character trait. For most players, its just they dont have the level of talent. Trying hard and coaching can only go so far. Not everyone in the minor leagues has major league talent. It doesnt mean they choked or blew their chance. They were just over matched. Not everyone has the potential to be a superstar or even an MLB average player. Most players that dont make it, are giving 100% effort and are trying to implement what the coaches are suggesting, they have just topped out what their abilities are.

And someone like Clemens, who has a HOF caliber father, may even be trying too hard.