Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

Other than very frail and very old hitters, I think most hitters perform better as starters, with perhaps a day off per week. When looking at stats of hitters we like, it's very typical to give a positive correction to poor SSS numbers, especially if past or minor league numbers with consistent play are significantly better. I know I've certainly done this with many young Phillies OF prospects in their short MLB careers. The reverse holds for guys we don't like.

DD seems to have a very realistic take on the Phillies OF situation: Cave or Clemons are fine as reserve OFs, but you wouldn't want any of them to have to fill-in as the starter for even 5 weeks. DD seems to want a guy he'd be happy having as a 3rd OF, but realizes that an OF with that ability is now willing to sign as a 4th/5th OF and brand himself as such going forward. He needs to wait and hope that somebody with that ability and needing to reprove himself might become available.

The issue of how many players over 33 we have notwithstanding, the Phillies are becoming an older team and i think DD is doing what he must in counting on our young OFs.

[zambonir]

Well, Cave isn't young and Clemens isn't really in the OF mix. The good news is our two youngest players are the CF and the LF, and Pache is right there with them. Muzziotti never got his chance, Moniak wasn't able to stay healthy (or, before that, productive) for his. Maybe De La Cruz eventually gets the call.

Of course if they just went out and signed Duvall or Pham on the terms they want then we'd have a young OF in AAA again - Rojas.

Wonder if Bellinger is going to end up missing a couple of weeks of spring training by the time he signs (like Harper before him) If so, some guys (and teams) will probably stop waiting for him.

[LoneStarPhan]

The starting pitching depth has been greatly improved with the additions of Max Castillo and Kolby Allard. Both have an option and likely will join Nick Nelson in the AAA rotation. They, along with Mick Abel, Griff McGarry or another break out starter at AA or AAA, provide reasonable depth for the projected 5 starters.

I expect that DD will add someone to the bench mix and the bullpen mix, but would not be surprised to see additions that have option(s). If there were a long term injury to a key player, the Phillies might make a move to bring in someone better to fill the vacancy.

But then, since DD has been in charge, I have been surprised by some pretty significant moves, so there is always the chance that something unexpected happens this spring.

[RolenRules]

Phillies To Sign Spencer Turnbull

Thoughts?

[gmwannabe]

money for an often injured pitcher! Makes sense to me. I guess the Phils have more money to spend. looks like I could have sold Dave some unused Farmland in Alaska.
gm

[LoneStarPhan]

Speculation that Turnbull replaces Covey as the long man in the pen and emergency starter. FanGraphs has already displaced Covey and added Turnbull to the Phillies bullpen on their Roster Resource - Depth Chart for the Phillies.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/phillies

Phillies continue to bring in arms to compete for the roster slots this spring.

[zambonir]

That's like buying a cup of coffee. Of course he's a guy DD drafted.

Speaking of cheap players, one of the blogs noted that only $500K of Cave's $1,000,000 is guaranteed. Not sure exactly what that means, other than they could DFA him and pay him that if he takes an AAA assignment (which he presumably would given the money and every other team would have passed on him in that scenario).

This signing would seem to threaten Covey's spot as well, if Turnbull does make the team that is.

[Aquapong]

Sure…pile up arms and play whomever performs.

[zambonir]

It's also insurance. If our current rotation 1-5 breaks Clearwater in perfect health, let Covey and Turnbull fight it out (though it probably can't make Covey feel too good that the other guy makes more money and has more incentives). If not one of these guys (or Allard) is the 5th starter (Strahm presumably stays in the pen).

[zambonir]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Phillies and right-hander Spencer Turnbull agree to a one-year deal

[fish]

This points out Turnbull has option but can refuse the assignment.

Pretty similar stuff as Lorenzen…when he’s healthy.

[andyb]

Clearly they wanted starting depth. All it takes is one injury also for the staff to carry another pitcher (i.e. Covey and Turnbull). They are spending money on players they might not use, so that is interesting and a little refreshing.

[phillychuck]

Covey projects to about 0 fWAR by the prediction engines, Turnbull to about 0.5 fWAR. On that basis he's an upgrade. They have Covey at about 50 IP and Turnbull at about 75, although there is some variance in Turnbull's projected workload which is probably injury-related.

Throw them both at a wall and see who sticks, I guess...

[zambonir]

We kind of saw that same willingness to spend with all the 60-day DL moves in 2022. Technically they could still release either Turnbull or Covey before their salaries become guaranteed in ST though teams rarely seem to do that.

With full health one of them plus Brogdon still has to be traded or snuck through waivers if they want an optionable arm at the bottom of the pen.

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought. Not that I think the Phillies should have kept him).

[Austinfan]

Turnbullis is also another year away from TJ surgery, which makes him a good upside play. Maybe he comes to camp and surprises with his old velocity.

[zambonir]

Also a Boras client. Phillies like Boras clients.

[andyb]

Both of them a lot cheaper than Lorenzen who projects to about their combined innings and 1.3 or 2.0 WAR, if he can actually find that job (and he might not be as expensive as once thought.

I am wondering if Lorenzen will be reduced to something like a 1 year/$5 million deal with incentives because I think most teams look at him as a swingman rather than a starter. He just has not shown he can handle starter innings.

[zambonir]

In a vacuum I would have thought he could still get $7-8 million (Matt Strahm makes $7.5) but the fact that he wasn't able to even show any value as a reliever for the Phillies had to hurt him. I would think there are still some jobs out there though, market is still just frozen by Boras, just like with the OFs.

Also, MLBTR reminds that Phillies roster is full. Not that there aren't plenty of candidates, but someone's gotta go for Turnbull.

[BostonRoss]

I think depth is a problem for the Phillies offense. Sosa is OK, but everyone else is a below average hitter and, other than Pache, is not above average on defense either. I'd like them to sign the best LH hitting outfielder they can. Assuming Eddie Rosario can't be had, could Robbie Grossman? He's better than Cave. Brad Miller has payed the OF. I wouldn't mind seeing a backup catcher better than Stubbs, but the pickings are thin.

[zambonir]

Why LHB though? I still think Pache and Rojas are redundant and a good RHB would get playing time in LF for Marsh (and if they can hit RHP themselves could get even more time with Marsh in CF some). Though I'm certainly not opposed to upgrading on Cave.

The bench is always a bit of a Catch-22 if you don't have quality young players available. Last year's team still got by fine with Cave (even when he had an appalling stretch at 1B) and Clemens and Sosa but I'm not sure I'd want to repeat that if a starting corner IF or OF got hurt. I think Miller is basically Josh Harrison at this point.

Something will happen. I'm not sure a single interesting OF or bench bat has signed a guaranteed deal in the recent weeks that we've been talking about this. Everyone is still Waiting For Bellinger.