Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[andyb]

Ahmed would solidify SS for the next two years as a glove first SS, well he'd hit better than Didi did.

Ahmed will probably not hit better than Didi. 619 OPS last year verses 639 for Didi. 729 vs 827 in 2020 and Didi has much more history of better offensive years. They are exactly the same age. Ahmed is better defensively, but the whole thing was a 0.7 WAR player last year. Didi was negative at -0.8, but again some bounce back because he can control the paragout is not impossible.

One might add Ahmed as a temporary gap SS if Didi is moved or released. But Freddy Galvis is probably better than Ahmed and if I can get Freddy for his salary last year ($1.5 million) I think I stick with the known mediocre over the unknown.

[bkox]

Mets and Phillies are among many teams talking to Aaron Loup. Unique lefty had monster year in Queens, posting 0.95 ERA. Could be one of the better players to go quick.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) November 11, 2021

[bkox]

I think Matt is talking about this phorum

There is a group of Phillies fans that continue to come to a Segura for Kimbrel swap that...
- Overvalues Kimbrel
- Undervalues Segura
- Overvalues Stott and/or Didi
and makes the team worse. Jean Segura is a good player.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) November 11, 2021

[Taudawg]

I agree with Matt. Segura is a good value even at 14.8mil next year. The projections that are already out on BR and FanGraphs don't predict much regression if any (with high reliability %). He is a positive. If you can trade him and get over value in return, go for it. He should not be someone the Phillies are trying to move though.

[zambonir]

I think andy and Matt's arguments both make sense, especially since a solid position player is always worth more than any reliever, even the best one. But I also still feel like this team has to trade one good player to end up with a better team. It's up Dombrowski to make it happen. Hoskins was the fashionable choice last year. Eflin too but he's injured. Nola would be selling low. Didi too. Not that you make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. You also want to trade from a position of strength, which the middle IF is for the Phillies only on paper (i.e. they have four - Didi, Segura, Kingery and Stott - but only one is a known quantity).

I think the Segura trade fantasy only works if they sign a SS and perhaps that is unlikely.

The best thing about Segura is also the worst thing about Segura - he has always been considered a bad clubhouse guy (even as recently as this year there were people in this list suggesting he would be traded after his conflict with Girardi), has never been on a playoff team, and by his own admission was out of shape in 2020. But he got back in shape and (little things like that tiff with Joe or the Cutch injury aside) and seems fine in the clubhouse. Hopefully he has another good year left in him but I'm not counting on it either. The 31 year-old with a few short stints on the IL becomes the 32 year-old who misses two months. I know Didi had the pseudogout and Cutch never really recovered from his injury (and was older) but players at that age just make me leary. Just part of being Negadelphian really: our young players will fail and our older players will crater.

[xogfog]

Any way to find out if the Philiies sent anyone to watch Verlander's work out?

[zambonir]

I can't imagine they would have, even for the sake of due diligence. (Not mentioned here, in any case, but you probably knew that already).

He's only available if he rejects QO and that's not water the Phillies are likely to be swimming in for the rotation.

[fish]

Can I have Carlos Rodon, please? Whatever happened later in the season to sap some of his stuff is a red flag, but he looks like he's either about to burn out or breakout. I would do 3 yrs @ 40-45 million for that gamble.

[EDmuch]

not for me.

[zambonir]

They would have to trade Eflin or Nola to start handing out a multi-year starting pitcher deal, and I think Boras probably still expects more like 50-60 for Rodon. A pillow deal might be more interesting. But I just don't see how the Phillies sign anything other than an $8-10 million starting pitcher. Dombrowski has already talked about getting someone who would move to the bullpen once Eflin returned, though we all know rotations have to be deeper than that.

[Austinfan]

If I were Dombro I'd seriously think about a "one step back, two step forward" season.
He just doesn't have the resources to get to 90 wins, and the Braves will probably be better next year.
So it's a tough route to the playoffs, and almost impossible to go deep into the playoffs with the current team.
And he just fired half of his personnel group, and is going to revamp the development process.

You've got a core in Wheeler, Segura Harper, JT, some players who are a year away or so, Stott, Marchan, O'Hoppe, Moniak/Haseley, then Rojas/Garcia/Torres/Muzzioti, and Painter and Abel poised to make a quick rise once things click. Maybe by next spring you'll know what you really have and who you're willing to trade, and who you can pencil into the 2023 lineup. If you could dump another $30M and go into 2023 with real money to spend you could add another core player and a couple key pieces around him.

So is this the year to take on more salary to tread water, or to trade some salary, add some prospects and improve the farm system development and find out what you really have?

Last time they were in this situation, Phillies wandered around for seven years before reaching the promised land, but had a lot more young talent on hand. This time, hanging around 81-85 wins seems an exercise in futility, given the lack of young talent on the roster.

[andyb]

Matt Winkelman's rule 5 preview:

Phillies Rule 5 Protection Preview

[zambonir]

Dombrowski's only got two years after this one. Girardi has zero, and arguably shouldn't even be managing a team where the cultivation of young players is the main priority (except that it isn't).

They can still get to 90 wins if they get it right. If they fail yet again, especially by the deadline, then it's time to start dealing. The Braves' success only validates the fact that the Phillies are not that far underwater.

And they can't just wait on Stott, Marchan, O'Hoppe and Moniak/Haseley, none of whom are actually "a year away" from guaranteed production as major league starters, let alone above average ones (ideally Stott is the exception but we'll see). Two of those four players likely won't be in the org by next year, even.

[Patchmk88]

MLB free agent predictions: Landing spots for top 20 players, with Yankees...

I’d be surprised if he gets even half these right. He’s got us signing Baez and Castellanos. Don’t see either one here.

[zambonir]

Like everything else it is for entertainment. I think Castellanos is in the mix though.

[bigegypt0417]

If I were Dombro I'd seriously think about a "one step back, two step forward" season.
He just doesn't have the resources to get to 90 wins, and the Braves will probably be better next year.

You don't need to build to 90 wins...you need to get to the playoffs.

Braves won 88 games and are the world champions.

Phillies were in contention until the last 10 days of the season.

You keep creating some imaginary boundary as if we all can forget that part.

[Austinfan]

Braves had the resources to add a lot of pieces after they were hit with injuries.
Phillies . . .

[EDmuch]

Your ability to constantly delay another 3-4 years before we are, in your eyes, competitive is amazing.

[fish]

Braves won 88 games and are the world champions.

Phillies were in contention until the last 10 days of the season.

Winning the NL East with less than 90 wins in a full season is like a once every 20 year phenomenon.

[schillingfan]

Braves had the resources to add a lot of pieces after they were hit with injuries.
Phillies . . .

You changed the criteria from 90 wins to having resources to add pieces. Fish made a more responsive argument. Shifting the ground is a logical fallacy.