Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[andyb]

Fangraphs top 50 free agents with some contract estimates (and the crowd sourced ones have been fairly accurate recently).

2022 Top 50 Free Agents

[zambonir]

I don't imagine they will add a #3 or 4 caliber starting pitcher. They just have to do a better job bringing in those #5/6 candidates. And I don't really see how they can trade Nola with the uncertainty over Eflin.

But, if last year's team hadn't had issues at SS, CF, closer and LF (most of the time) they would have won 90+ games despite the 5th starter issues (and despite Nola's issues), and I believe they were still basically a .500 team in those starts. So I'm not sure it's a huge concern. Fixing those other things are more important. Add the depth, and upgrade at the deadline again as needed.

We've talked about it a lot but I don't see how improving the defense is even really going to happen. Maybe at either SS or CF, but with an offensive price to pay.

[allentown]

But, if last year's team hadn't had issues at SS, CF, closer and LF (most of the time) they would have won 90+ games despite the 5th starter issues (and despite Nola's issues)

Well, yes but... that's 3/8 of the starting lineup-- hardly a small thing. Realistically, we cannot fix 3 positions. By which I mean, can't fix with medium- r higher-priced FA. We can hope to get lucky and satisfactorily fill 2 of the positions with dumpster dives or minor leaguers who suddenly bloom to ML-ready in ST, but haven't done very well with either of late. I think they do need to pick one spot and spend the $ to fill it well, then dumpster dive for platoons which will work. The biggest thing which could make it all work is Kingery once again being what we thought he could be and Bohm returning to his rookie form. With that and a key FA, weakness at the other positional hole can be finessed. It is the rare team which doesn't have a hole or two.

[andyb]

ESPN rankings and projections here:

Which shortstop could get $300 million? Rankings and contract projections for...

[Taudawg]

MLB Trade Rumors with their top 50 and predictions -

MLB Trade Rumors top 50

[BostonRoss]

Ah, you're right about Bradley. Maybe the Brewers would consider trading him and eating some of the salary.

[Taudawg]

They have Phillies involved on a large chunk of the "Trade Rumors" top 50.

1 Carlos Correa. Ten years, $320MM.
big drop off to
8 Trevor Story. Six years, $126MM.

13 Starling Marte. Four years, $80MM.
15 Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.
20 Seiya Suzuki. Five years, $55MM.
30 Mark Canha. Two years, $24MM.

42 Hector Neris. Two years, $15MM.

[BostonRoss]

While it is true that the Phillies have had good teams with a bad defensive left fielder, they just have to improve their fielding as much as possible. I hope that any players picked up via trade or free agent signings will improve the overall fielding for 2002. Of course, they have to get the best they can under the constraints they will face, so improved fielding in every case may not be possible.

I was noting that LF is a relatively unimportant place to have good defense. I agree that improvement at key positions like CF and SS is important, especially since the Phillies seem unlikely to improve their mediocre to bad defense at RF, 1B, and (if Bohm stays there) 3B.

baseball-reference lists only 53 left fielders all-time with positive defensive WAR. Some of them also played other positions, and some are active players who may go negative as they age. The best all-time is Bret Gardner, followed by Barry Bonds. (#11 is Sam Fuld!) The Phillies have had an historically bad LF on every one of their pennant winners going back to the Whiz Kids; on the baseball-reference list: Luzinski (5th lowest dWAR), Sarge (7th), Ibanez (10th), Ennis (17th), Burrell (29th). Even our 1964 LF, Covington, is 27th.

[zambonir]

So you do or don't think they have to devote resources to a starting pitcher among these holes?

[andyb]

I'd love to see actual reporting that the Phillies are in on Suzuki. That prediction seems mainly about the fit for the team needs (and acknowledging the Phillies can take on a little more risk than top contenders can).

I just don't recall the Phillies ever being seriously involved in a Japanese free agent's initial posting. As a team with cash though (the posting fee is beyond the contract) it should make sense. I just need to see it to believe it.

[allentown]

It would be nice to, but I think they don't have the $ to do other than dumpster dive plus hope a minor leaguer steps forward. If they only add a Story or Marte as their FA position player to get significant FA $, then they could afford to add a pitcher, although we've had rather poor luck with mid-level FA. Correa might be the best buy. He should give at least 5 good years. Contract out after 5 and hope he takes it and that baseball salaries inflate between now and then.

[andyb]

The Philllies 40-man roster looks like it is down to 31 now including the guy they just added (Sherriff). The MLB site lists 34 but still have Jankowski, Herrera, and Knapp on it (they do have Rosso, Hammer, and Torreyes gone).

Potential additions for the rule 5 draft are Luis Garcia, Jhailyn Ortiz, James McArthur, Longer shots might include Colton Eastman, Zach Warren, and Cristian Hernandez. I think I would be on just 2 or 3. McArthur looked to be opening eyes in Arizona then gave up 9 runs in an inning.

Keeping Quinn looks like a pretty easy call (and Seranthony) if they only go up to 34 players pre rule 5 draft. Gives them room to draft one and sign 5 free agents before they even get to the part about non-major league deal free agents like Torreyes making the team.

[zambonir]

They have Phillies involved on a large chunk of the "Trade Rumors" top 50.

1 Carlos Correa. Ten years, $320MM.
big drop off to
8 Trevor Story. Six years, $126MM.

13 Starling Marte. Four years, $80MM.
15 Kyle Schwarber. Four years, $70MM.
20 Seiya Suzuki. Five years, $55MM.
30 Mark Canha. Two years, $24MM.

42 Hector Neris. Two years, $15MM.

I don't see where the Phillies are even mentioned on some of these (at the top or bottom). But Seager and Bryant and Semien too.

[Taudawg]

I don't see where the Phillies are even mentioned on some of these (at the top or bottom). But Seager and Bryant and Semien too.

Phillies are mentioned on 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 13, 16, 17, 20, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 35, 38, 42, 44 and 45. 19 mentions on 50 players. Some of the mentions seem odd, such as Kershaw. Lack of mentions on other players just as curious.

[andyb]

The combination of 3 different projections for where players go along with the teams that theoretically have the money to sign a player (i.e. they have the Phillies in on most players in area of perceived need which appears to be SS, LF, CF, and RP) makes for lots of Phillies mentions.

Starting pitching is not a perceived need so less likely we are mentioned there.

[Taudawg]

Dodgers out of the gate early signing Andrew Heaney - 8.5 mil for 1yr seems high for Heaney. Does the market move faster with the CBA expiring soon? Not sure why, but I was expecting the market to move slowly.

[julio]

The Philllies 40-man roster looks like it is down to 31 now including the guy they just added (Sherriff).

I'm showing 32; the difference between my list and the one on the Phils' web site is Simon Muzziotti. The IronPigs' site shows Muzziotti as on the AAA roster and NOT on the 40-man... but I've never been able to find any indication that Muzziotti was ever removed from the 40-man when he was in visa limbo. Moreover, at no time in the 2021 season did the Phils actually fill their roster to 40, excluding Muzziotti.

Muzziotti was selected last November 20th; optioned on March 13th; placed on the Restricted List on March 25th; activated on April 26th (dubious, but that's what the web site says); assigned to FCL Phillies on August 31st, and subsequently promoted to Clearwater, Jersey Shore, Reading, Lehigh Valley.

If he isn't on the 40-man now, I expect he will be soon; he's played in five seasons, and would be a no-brainer Rule 5 pick, IMHO.

[allentown]

Bowden @ Athletic lists us as fits for four players, starting with his #12 rated Marte (expects 4yr$104 million), #14 Suzuki (5/101), #21 Conforto (5/90), #22 Taylor (4/64). If those are the contract terms, I like Taylor and Suzuki best. For that $36 mill/yr, I'd rather have Correa and $6 mill for a pitcher. He only lists his top 25 FA and this is just a list of teams where they would fit. He doesn't see any of the top MLB FA SS as fits in Philly.

[andyb]

22 Taylor (4/64)

Taylor did get a QO. I bet he stays but that alone would make me shy away from a mid-market deal like 4/64.

[andyb]

Agree that Muzziotti whether he is on or off the list now, will end up on it because he WOULD be selected if left exposed. I think Garcia is maybe 50-50 to get selected. Ortiz 30-70. And I think both of them will get protected.

We still end up at 35 players max on the current roster if we added Muzziotti, Garcia, Ortiz, and McArthur which has been the most likely set of protected players. So we can add a rule 4 and 3 or 4 free agents to major league deals without a problem. I guess the only issue would be if they start trading non-40 man prospects for major league players.