Phillies Hot Stove Discussion 2021-22

[Taudawg]

I still think we should get a bat for LF and cut/paste in CF with inexpensive defensive players.

I’m onboard with that, but I would prefer Kyle Schwarber.

Seiya profiles better than the last several Japanese players making the switch, but recent history of players switching over has not been good. I would feel much more confident if they replace Cutch with something proven. The Phillies don’t have enough money margin for an expensive experiment to not work out.

[andyb]

Schwarber works for me too. Probably in that same $15-$20 million range as the Japanese guy. Both are young enough that a 3-year deal is pretty safe. Even a 4th year (ideally as an option).

Defense is still important, but should not be a priority in LF especially with the DH likely. Cutch as a right-handed power bat was really important to the lineup as Bohm failed and Hoskins got hurt. If we do sign a left-handed bat like Schwarber we better be really sure that Hoskins and Bohm will be plusses in the lineup or we might get a bit too left-handed.

[fish]

I don’t think Avisail Garcia to play left would be a bad idea- he mashes lefties.

[EDmuch]

If they go for left field, I suspect Castellanos. would be our primary target because of his past connection to DD.

[bkox]

Castellanos scares me. Someone is going to over pay him for this past season without looking at the fact that his OPS away from Cincy was only .773. ANd he has negative dWAR at both fangraphs and BBref hit entire career.

Hes a solid player who had a career year in 2021. But turns 30 and will want 3-4 years at least 20M a year. He opted out of 16M for 2022, 16M for 2023 and 20M mutual option for 2024.

So you have to assume hes looking for at the very least 3/60M and probably more like 4/80M

[Taudawg]

So you have to assume hes looking for at the very least 3/60M and probably more like 4/80M

Hosts of MLB radio were talking about Castellanos today, speculating Boras' expectation will be 5yr 125 mil. That sounds like Boras and he'll have to settle for less. However, Castellanos should not be on Phillies radar at all. Beside the money, it's just not a good fit with what they already have. They are set in RF, and Castellanos has limited (bad) experience in LF.

[bkox]

Herrera gone.

JD Hammer a bit of a surprise.

The following six players have been outrighted and have elected free agency: RHP’s JD Hammer & Ramón Rosso, C Andrew Knapp, INF Ronald Torreyes and OF’s Odúbel Herrera & Travis Jankowski.

— Philadelphia Phillies ( @Phillies ) November 5, 2021

[zambonir]

Hammer wasn't even in the majors at the end of the year was he? He had his moments but still pretty much fungible, and not the first time he's been removed from the 40.

[andyb]

Well that is 4 of the 9 arbitration eligibles: Knapp, Torreyes, Herrera, and Jankowski.

Left are Hoskins, Eflin, Alvarado, Dominguez, and Quinn. I think this means they are keeping Quinn. I think the roster is going to be pretty thin this winter and Quinn at $700K is a good risk if they know his rehab is going well. Do we really think that left-handed reliever they just claimed is potentially more valuable than Quinn?

This could change if they sign a major center fielder and there is no path to playing time and less need for a defensive OF reserve, but the real cost of Quinn is the roster spot over the winter (they could always release him in Spring Training too).

[bkox]

Castellanos

To add to the reasons not to go after Castellanos.. The Reds are QOing him

[zambonir]

Well they obviously thought Sheriff was more valuable than Hammer!

Seems pretty likely the Phillies are going to have to play in the QO pool if they're serious about free agents. And there's also a school of thought that once you've lost the one, losing another isn't as big a deal (i.e. if they sign a SS may as well sign an OF too).

But we don't even know if there will still be QOs, or under what parameters, by the time the signings really happen. It would be pretty foolish for a team to go sign someone next week and lose the pick under the old CBA unless they think the new CBA will stipulate retroactive changes.

[julio]

It would be pretty foolish for a team to go sign someone next week and lose the pick under the old CBA unless they think the new CBA will stipulate retroactive changes.

Retroactive changes would only apply to teams other than the Phillies...

[andyb]

I can't imagine most teams doing major signings before they know the rules. The very top of the market (i.e. Correa) probably does not matter, but there is a strong chance compensation for someone like Castellanos disappears.

And if compensation goes away it will apply to everyone I think.

In other news the White Sox are keeping Kimbrel by picking up his $16 million option. I will also note that Kris Bryant is the top tier guy not eligible for a QO being traded in his free agent year. Still think there is a chance the Phillies are interested because of the need for a big bat and they could really flex him between 3B and LF depending on what happens with Bohm.

[zambonir]

Bryant also made 10 starts in CF this season. Likely not a huge factor - who knows if he's even better than Harper there - but a little flexibility is never a bad thing.

I don't think Bohm is going anywhere though. Making him change positions on-the-fly would probably be even worse than sticking with him at 3B. A team with Bryant, Bohm, Hoskins and Realmuto feels like serious righty overkill. But if you trade Hoskins or Bohm OTOH....

[bkox]

MLB sources: The @astros have offered free-agent shortstop Carlos Correa a five-year contract worth $160 million, averaging $32 million a year.

— Mark Berman ( @MarkBermanFox26 ) November 6, 2021

[andyb]

Bryant would be the potential LF solution. He might be pretty good there. He'd be the 3B backup plan because he is likely declining there as he ages.

[EDmuch]

Ok so Bryant in Left. How about Mark Canha in Center? He is an adequate CF, but most importantly he is an experienced left handed lead off hitter. He should be obtainable at a reasonable price.

So lineup against RH pitching would be
Canha (LH)
Segura (RH)
Harper (LH)
Hoskins (RH)
Bryant (RH)
Didi (LH) against RH pitching only
Realmuto (RH)
Boehm (RH)

[xogfog]

I like that lineup, but I don't like Realmuto that far down. I'd worry a little less about L/R hitters and keep the power bats in the meaty part of the lineup.

[julio]

How about Mark Canha in Center? He is an adequate CF, but most importantly he is an experienced left handed lead off hitter.

According to baseball-reference.com, Canha bats righty.

[EDmuch]

Damn. I watched a couple of A's games and I thought I remembered him batting left. I guess I was wrong.