Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[andyb]

I mean he certainly came into 2022 as someone they thought could help in the major leagues (or in the highest-ceiling best-case scenario, become the next Seranthony.

No. He had a 6.28 ERA and 67 BBs in 91 IP in 2021. He was not going to sniff the big leagues until he started pitching better and that would have required minor league time. Then he started very well in Reading in 2022. Probably still was not ready, but good enough for an injury/COVID replacement stint since he was already on the 40.

He started through 2021. They wanted him to pitch innings to learn. He never had upper minors success until they moved him to the bullpen though in 2022.

[zambonir]

4 Phillies prospects who could steal roster spots at Spring Training

I realize Fansided is not that good a source, but I reckon the Athletic and Inquirer guys probably wrote the same thing (not that he'd make the team in April but that he was fast-tracked for the bullpen by the second half).

And he did, in fact, pitch in the big leagues in early May. Had he been able to perform he might have stayed. And there was definitely hope on this board that he simply wasn't ready at that point, would go back to AAA, and be of use in August. Instead he was a disaster in Allentown too.

tbh, his numbers in both 2021 (overall) and 2022 (outside of Reading) make me question whether they will really get much for him. He's young, but opening a 40-man spot for him is its own cost.

[zambonir]

While I don't consider this a serious topic (except for Internet churn) stranger things have happened. He's just probably not going to be any better than what the Phillies already have (Maton, Sosa, Vierling, even Guthrie and Cave). If he was a LH-hitting RF there might be more a cracked door.

Phillies predictions: Can Scott Kingery earn a spot on the 2023 roster? – Philly...

[andyb]

Definitely more of a need for a LH hitter (Maton or Hall) with Harper out.

I assume he gets big league time though in 2023. He does have that advantage of being able to clear waivers whenever they need a 40-man spot. As long as he can play defense and run (remember stolen bases are more important with the new rules) he'll be a depth option.

There seems to be almost a historic low in roster spot competition this year, especially on the hitting side. Stubbs, Sosa, and Vierling seem set for the bench. Then there are 2 more roster spots with Harper out. Maton probably has the upper hand on the first one. More competition for the second (Hall, Guthrie, Cave). I suppose Kingery could beat someone out. I hope Muzziotti is healthy after his knee injury last year but he seems a longshot now. Too bad because his offense was starting to come together in the second half.

Bullpen seems pretty set too with only the last 1-2 spots open for competition.

[zambonir]

Bullpen seems pretty set too with only the last 1-2 spots open for competition.

Yeah it was funny on the same day (January 4) the Athletic published Bowden claiming the Phillies still intend to add another back-end arm after Kimbrel and Gelb saying they certainly won't.

[Austinfan]

Kingery will be an interesting test for the development coaches.

The raw material is there, power, speed, plays multiple positions, used to have a nice short stroke.
Still strikes out too much, but last year had a BB rate of 14.8%. So he's developing plate discipline.

Wouldn't shock me if he's finally 100% physical (sounds like a combination of long COVID and a shoulder injury cost him a couple seasons) and had a breakout season.

[allentown]

It's also an admission that what we previously regarded as the best prospects on the farm and the best prospects from our LA program simply weren't that good (although we have 3 new top prospects and all 3 on the pitching side). As long as the Phillies can add as good as we lose from another team's rejects.... I guess ok, although really emphasizes how weak the farm has been. The positive view is that this means everyone now on the 40-man is better than Morales.

[Philsmania]

Wouldn't shock me if he's finally 100% physical (sounds like a combination of long COVID and a shoulder injury cost him a couple seasons) and had a breakout season.

I suspect that if that breakout isn't happening by mid-season, the Phillies will cut bait on him.

[Austinfan]

We knew the farm system sucked, especially the LA pipeline.
The next couple years will tell us if they've changed, if they can fill the "hole in the donut."

B/c they have signed/traded for a bunch of ML players, they're going to have a solid AAA team:
Sands/Marchan, Hall?, De La Cruz, Kingery, Dunn, Guthrie?, Rojas, Muzziotti, Ortiz.
Passmeyer, Skirrow, McGarry, Painter, Abel, Sanchez/Falter, Miller, Crouse, Morales, Lehman

Right now Wilson may be the only prospect on Reading, with McArthur as a SP and some RPs in Hernanez, Schultz, Baker, Schultze, Sullivan, Moore.

Lakewood could also be very thin to start the season, unless some young prospects tear in up in Clearwater and get promoted.

[andyb]

The positive view is that this means everyone now on the 40-man is better than Morales.

I am not sure that is why the Phillies made this move. I think they did it because they think those pitchers are better in 2023 alone. They still value Morales. They just might have to trade him because that value is beyond this upcoming season.

[zambonir]

Yeah I'd be hard-pressed to argue that Andrew Vasquez is better than Morales, but he has a better chance of helping this year (but even then his numbers last year don't say he's better). But for relievers they clearly want projects/depth on the 40 that the major league pitching staff can tweak (or dump for another similar fungible if it doesn't work) not guys who still need another half-year in AAA. You can only hold those spots for starting pitchers (and even then those guys might spot start).

Ideally Kingery has a good spring training and AAA season and actually does get traded at some point, even if the Phillies pay all of his salary. But if they don't there's no real reason to release him other than for Kingery's own sake. Like andy said he's essentially a free optionable player. Hopefully injuries will not be as prevalent this year as they were last year because our two middle IFs are no longer older but if Sosa has essentially replaced Camargo on the major league roster Kingery could easily be this year's Yairo Munoz (who only got his initial shot because Maton also got hurt).

[allentown]

We knew the farm system sucked, especially the LA pipeline.

Congratulations! I think this is the first time you've admitted this.

"Lakewood could also be very thin to start the season, unless some young prospects tear in up in Clearwater and get promoted."

I agree, but doesn't this contradict your frequently expressed view over the past year that the Phillies farm was okay, because of its strength at the lower levels. This year's Lakewood team will be made up of members of both Clearwater teams from last season.

[zambonir]

Jon Duplantier signs minors deal with Phillies. Invite to MLB spring camp.

— Jon Heyman ( @JonHeyman ) January 6, 2023

No options. Can start or relieve.

[allentown]

Bad stats. Gets his Ks, but ton of walks and bad ERA.

[Austinfan]

They've had a donut for a couple years, LHV is solid mostly b/c they are promoting some fast (Abel, Painter) and some slow (Ortiz) and some blocked (Sands, Marchan).

The paucity of talent on paper in Lakewood is concerning, but that's really a reflection of drafts/signings from 3-4 years ago - LA and HS players take 3-4 years to get to high A+ for the most part, college players who are any good should be in Reading by now.

I think the key to the new regime is if we start seeing some GCL/Clearwater players from the last two seasons start jumping to Lakewood and forcing their way to Reading. That's sort of the definition of a good prospect, someone who quickly adjusts to a higher level.

To me, you rise to AA on talent, then at AA and AAA ball, you have to learn the nuances to prepare for ML baseball, plate discipline, learning to hit the ball where it's pitched, consistent defense, command of your pitches, repeatable mechanics, etc.

[bkox]

Source: #Tigers are close to acquiring Nick Maton, Matt Vierling, and Donny Sands from the #Phillies .

Gregory Soto and Kody Clemens would go to Philadelphia if finalized.

Credit to @JSalisburyNBCS for being first to report the trade discussions today. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi ( @jonmorosi ) January 7, 2023

[el-pietro]

Is Clemens considered a prospect? Otherwise I don't understand this.
Soto is a good player, but I'm not sure hes better in 2023 for the Phillies than Vierling alone, especially with Harper out until June minimum.
Clemens put up an wRC+ of 40 in 2022 across 57 games so small sample, but they project him for a 94 in 2023, with below average defense. He seems like a worse, older Nick Maton.

So is this a precursor to some other move or am I missing something?

[zambonir]

Haha turns out Jim Bowden was right!

I think this is about Soto, period, but one assumes they might go out and get a LHB to play RF at least part-time now. If they don't though, Vierling was still replaceable and Maton was slightly redundant to Sosa (and still wasn't an OF) assuming his bat isn't really that big.

Soto is not a FA until 2026. I don't think Clemens is much more than a throw-in (and to make room on Detroit's 40). But he does at least have a LHB to look at in spring training.

If the Phillies have any games against Baylor or Rice he'd be dangerous I'm sure.

[Squire]

I kinda like this deal. Sands was blocked, Maton was behind Sosa for a utility spot. And trading Vierling probably means that if you want a platoon partner for Marsh it’s Johan Rojas instead. Soto is a big stuff reliever who you have under team control for 4 years

[Patchmk88]

Soto has Alvarado type stuff. I like this deal.