Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[allentown]

We really didn't turn Crawford into a regular.

The other guys you mentioned: college draftees. We are decent, slightly below average but decent, in drafting/developing college hitters. Where we are historically abysmal are H.S. first round position players. Even with college hitters, our big successes are a while ago. We have Rollins as a second rounder as our most recent clear H.S. success. We've spent a lot of first and second round draft picks on failed H.S. hitters. Especially bad and have been addicted to drafting H.S. OFs. This follows through in LA. When is the last time we developed a plus OF as either a H.S. draftee or LA signee? I may just be drawing a mental blank, but can't think of one. We've spent a lot of resources trying during the time span I'm trying to review in my mind. There were some, decades back who were injured soon after joining the MLB Phillies, or who had some success after we traded them. Even those were quite a few decades ago, as was George Bell whom we gambled and lost in the Rule 5.

"Correa's still out there.... "

What? Have the Mets now also backed away?

[zambonir]

We really didn't turn Crawford into a regular.

I meant that they turned him into Jean Segura - an All-Star, even! - not that they turned Crawford himself into a good player (but he was still drafted and developed and stepped right into the M's line-up - that the Phillies didn't want him anymore is a whole separate mystery).

Yes, Mets are also unhappy with Correa's medicals and supposedly Boras is standing firm this time, but as many as three teams have also reached out to him. General consensus is he still signs, and there's really still no indication the Phillies ever liked Correa much (or vice-versa). But just for fun/the sake of argument if money was no object I'd give him Bohm's job in a heartbeat, and if money's sort of an object you could move on from Hoskins and/or trade Bohm if you don't want Bohm at 1B and can get something for him.

[allentown]

Sorry to have misinterpreted your comment.

[fish]

There was enough guys with second half improvements last year that I’m ready to strap on the rose colored glasses and say that 2023 is going to be the year the Phillies Development starts to really turn around and develop a few hitters from a group of guys who are thought well of, though maybe don’t rank high on prospects lists. The kind of depth guys that the Dodgers, Mariners, Braves and the like trade at the deadline and you realize you had never heard of them yet they have at or near .800 OPS while playing in age appropriate leagues.

Carlos De La Cruz was like that last year, but he really boosted his numbers past the deadline when he started to shine.

Kendall Simmons, Marcus Lee Sang- I’m looking at you!

[Austinfan]

It's about time. But not just those guys, I'm curious to see what they can do with Maton, Marsh, Sosa, Vierling, who all showed flashes. They have the athletic skills to be multiple WAR players with the right coaching, if you can be a plus fielder (and that's also coaching, look at Dickerson with Bohm) you don't have to be a great hitter, just a passable one.

Though if Long can unleash the potential in Bohm and Stott, this is a championship team.

[zambonir]

Bohm is still not a plus fielder or anything close to one.

Coaching can only do so much. But continuing to develop young players at the majors is obviously important (and yet also not something that involves the development staff per se, though the new/overdue philosophy of better alignment is obviously a plus).

The Phillies obviously believe Marsh and Sosa both have potential ceilings of everyday player. Not sure there's really more to Vierling other than being a better version of what he already is (and same might be true of Marsh if the more expansive platoon role. But Bohm also still has a ways to go to be more than a platoon player in the long run).

Maton is going to be useful regardless. All current indication seems to be that we'll see a lot more of Maton, Vierling and Sosa rather than Hall to fill the Harper absence (with whomever they supplant in the field on any given day being the actual DH).

[fish]

The Phillies obviously believe Marsh and Sosa both have potential ceilings of everyday player.

Both of those guys must have some strength that isn’t translating in their game yet. Sosa is an athletic guy- but the way he plays you do t see how strong he must be to be athletic and also 6’ and 210 lbs. Great acquisition- he provides current value and some hope for a lot more. Seems like he’s got some potential to pop like Eugenio Suárez did after the tigers traded him to the reds.

[andyb]

It is hard not to like the Sosa acquisition since we only gave up a LH middle reliever with control issues (basically a AAAA pitcher that is replaceable). Sosa definitely has upside and when paired with the modest cost is a really smart acquisition.

With Marsh it is really about whether he is better than O'Hoppe and that is uncertain. It was a positional need so the cost is easily justified. His bar is higher though for that to be a good deal since we gave up more.

[zambonir]

I don't really think you have to make a head-to-head comparison of Marsh and O'Hoppe though. It was still basically a present WAR for future WAR deal, in addition to O'Hoppe being blocked, and the higher price was fair because Marsh is young and cheap. They could have just as easily traded O'Hoppe for someone like Hader or Castillo if they'd had a different deadline approach and then it would have been a given that O'Hoppe would be the better player in the long run (assuming he pans out). I still think the Phillies are happy with the trade if Marsh gives them even just two years of production (including the one he already provided) and they probably still win it if he's a useful 4th OF for a few years after that. If he's more than that, they win it by a lot.

Also amusing to think there was some clamor to trade JT back before both he and team changed its trajectory.

[Austinfan]

Marsh has a lot of upside with his speed and frame, now whether he reaches it is another matter.

But you can say the same about O'Hoppe, who should hit but it remains to be seen if he's athletic enough to be a starting catcher, if he is more Coste than JT he still has value, but not as much as if he can stay as a full-time catcher.

[andyb]

I mentioned that Marsh did serve a present need when traded for. Of course he was really not a great solution for that present need if one looked at many better offensive options out there.

Looking at this as O'Hoppe versus Marsh and counting their pre-free agency WAR is a fair way to evaluate the trade even if we acknowledge that the Phillies had to do something in CF. That means if the player values are pretty close in the end then the Phillies would have won the trade because they got that pennant race value. Of course the other factor is 2 extra years of control for O'Hoppe, but all that will go into the WAR calculation.

We could have traded O'Hoppe for a temporary solution to CF. We didn't and that is a good move by Dombrowski. But we have also yet to see if Marsh is really plus at anything yet. Marsh had good offensive stats with the Phillies but had a .397 BABIP and a 6-41 K/BB ratio. Hard to know if that is any way sustainable and his defensive stats were very average. Everything you say about upside with Marsh can easily be said about O'Hoppe who probably has more upside.

This was certainly an interesting trade. We just don't know if it was a good one yet and there is as much chance it will be a bad one in the long run if O'Hoppe works out.

[phillychuck]

Marsh, from both the eyeball test and from his defensive stats, is an average to slightly below average ML CF defensively. I have no idea if he can improve, but if he doesn't phans will be clamoring for an upgrade there before the end of the season. He projects to be about a 90 WOBA hitter, and that's worth something if paired with good defense...

Where would you set the over/under on his 2023 fWAR? 1.5? Fangraphs projections are 1.1 in basically full-time play.

[zambonir]

I have no idea if he can improve, but if he doesn't phans will be clamoring for an upgrade there before the end of the season.

He and Bohm both seem to have a free pass for at least a year just based on personality and hair and the good vibes of the Series.

In the long run you want Marsh to blossom not so he can be the CF of the future but so that he can play either corner (assuming Rojas steps in and one of the two bad OFs moves to 1B or DH). Obviously right now a defensively poor Schwarber is still a better LF than a light-hitting Marsh, though it's probably closer than we think (and the same is true of playing Sosa more often at 3B against RHP, except there Sosa is actually going to be better).

[andyb]

Where would you set the over/under on his 2023 fWAR? 1.5? Fangraphs projections are 1.1 in basically full-time play.

I'd bet on a little more improvement than the projections say because I do buy that he underperformed offensively in LA. Also, he has less defensive experience in CF so some improvement with repetition is likely there. Is he more than a 2 WAR player though? Probably not. I hope he is but not expecting it.

[Austinfan]

This is where COVID and other factors complicate projections.
Marsh only had about 1330 minor league PA, the norm is 2000-2500 for HS players.
He should have had 500 PA in AAA at 22, instead of 0, then got rushed to the majors at 23 after 110 AAA PA.

BB rate, 12.2% in A+, 11.4% in AA, 14.5% in his truncated AAA appearance.
Then drops to 7.7% with the Angels and 6.1% last season.
So there's room for improvement once he settles into an everyday role.
1.7 WAR in 461 PA (1.6 BR) with 89 RC+. So he's already a 2+ WAR starter (600 PA).

So if he can just make incremental improvements (up the BB%, reduce K rate from 35% to 25%, improve his play in CF by making better reads off the bat), he has 3+ WAR potential.

[andyb]

So there's room for improvement once he settles into an everyday role.
1.7 WAR in 461 PA (1.6 BR) with 89 RC+. So he's already a 2+ WAR starter (600 PA).

Much of his defensive value was compiled in LF where he was plus. CF is another question entirely though as to whether he is at least average or not. Plus, the BABIP was .360 even when you combine the LA and Philly performances. That is why his projections are lower than his WAR in 2022 (though note he may still platoon so getting full time stats is not likely again, so you can't just say his 1.7 WAR is equivalent to 2+ since he may not get more playing time this year.

I just don't buy the COVID explanations you throw up either. Guessing he was at the alternate site for the Angels and also this happened to every single prospect. He was rushed to the majors a little bit because of need, but it is not as if that is unique either. Your last sentence of course is true. Yes if he increases his BB rate while dropping his K rate from 35% to 25% he'll be a lot better. There is just nothing in his record that suggests he can do that level of dramatic improvement. Dropping the K rate by even 5% would be substantial.

[zambonir]

No question COVID made nothing normal, but he still didn't have zero PAs at age 22, because he was at the alternate site - possibly a higher level of competition than he would have otherwise gotten that year between AA and AAA, if still a lot fewer ABs (just like the major leaguers).

But your point stands somewhat. He's still the youngest regular on the team and a work in progress. And he was still a big upgrade over what they had in CF last year, as well as most of what they have right now (Vierling isn't better, if suitable in platoon; Rojas not yet ready).

[EDmuch]

One of the things that I like about DD’s style is that supposedly DD asked Long to review tape of Marsh so that DD would have the benefits of long’s insight as to Marsh’s potential.

[allentown]

Reduce K-rate from 35% to 25% is more than an incremental improvement. It would be nice if he could be at least average as our starting CF for the next 5 years -- that would be a plus. I don't think that will happen, but it could. Watching all of the playoff games, he got some hits, but generally seemed over-matched.

[David_Criss]

Can't recall where I saw it, but a couple days ago there was an article suggesting the Phillies sign Wacha, Fullmer and Rafael Ortega.
As far as Wacha, I am fine with Falter/Sanchez/Painter as the fifth starter.
As faras Fullmer, to many walks

Ortega intriques me. He plays center, Marsh moves to left and Schwarber to DH until Harper returns.
Another option I wish would get some traction is what about Hall at 1B and Hoskins at DH?

I like Marsh and think he is going to have a nice career.