Phillies Hot Stove 2022-23

[Aquapong]

I don’t think we’ll improve defensively by moving Bohm or Schwarbs to 1B. But we can use Hoskins’ money to improve in a measurable way at other positions, namely SS/2B and pitching. I think the team can net 3+ more wins that way while staying under the tax.

[andyb]

Sounds like we will sign one starter (but only one).

Dave Dombrowski said they plan on keeping one rotation job open for a youngster in Falter, Sanchez, Painter. Will want to add another starter beyond that.

— Todd Zolecki ( @ToddZolecki ) November 16, 2022

Even if Bryce has TJ surgery it should not set him back too much though obviously things are delayed a month from when Hoskins had the surgery. Hoskins was ready opening day after a 4-6 month recovery, though Bryce importantly has the DH available. I could see Bryce DH for a couple of months and then start to play defense in June.

[flyers19rw]

Streaky hitting does matter. Especially when the strikeouts are factored into the equation. It leads to lost runs by not being able to move along the runners. Then there is the defense that puts runners on base and, in some cases, costs games.
Moving out Hoskins doesn’t create a dead position at 1B. Someone else will be there that can hit and field. Perhaps his replacement doesn’t hit as many hrs. Maybe they do other things better at the plate and are an overall plus for the offense. If they can field and throw better, they’d save runs. With an improving but still shakey fielding Bohm at third and Stott as well, having a better fielding 1B would be a positive step forward for the defense.

[zambonir]

Moving out Hoskins doesn’t create a dead position at 1B. Someone else will be there that can hit and field.

The best candidate would be Castellanos. But right now he can neither hit nor field.

Bohm is also a good candidate. He's not half the hitter Hoskins is.

Schwarber is a better hitter than Hoskins, but not by that that much. And could be an even worse 1B.

Hall could probably play there with Bohm or Castellanos taking the weak side of the platoon but I'm afraid that after 50 or 60 starts he'd be exposed as a bench player.

Harper?

If you go outside the organization you're either not getting a better player or you're not saving enough money for it to be worth doing. You can look at it as, Turner or Bogaerts will replace some of Hoskins' offense, but in that sense you still need someone to replace Segura's.

I'd be fine with Schwarber or Bohm/Hall if they upgrade LF or or 3B (with Castellanos and Sosa both playing at those spots too), it would not improve 1B but could improve the team. Just doing it to help pay for one pitcher or the SS is not enough though.

[andyb]

I just can't see them making a move this year on Hoskins (and maybe not next year if everyone sees the QO as a safe but slightly overpriced 1-year investment). I guess signing the Japanese guy would give us a LF, but all signs point to him signing on the West Coast. Just have not heard the Phillies involved there at all. I think the hard throwing pitcher (Senga) would be a better fit than Yoshida. Senga could be given a chance to start but also be a high leverage bullpen guy also if a couple of the kids pan out.

[bkeich]

The problem with letting Harper DH for a couple months is the way he swings. He is a VERY violent swinger, I have to think that he puts more pressure on his elbow (and whole body) than most (almost all) hitters. I just think it is going to take him some time to be recovered enough that he can swing normally.

Honestly, I expect a bad season from him next year, this is just not something you recover from quickly, especially if it is replacement and not just repairing surgery. I would be surprised to see a .475 slugging from him next year. Hopefully I am wrong.

[andyb]

I think whenever Harper debuts it will be a month or two of DH before he plays the field. If he has TJ surgery and the team is conservative that might mean a late May/early June debut and a delay on playing the field till around the All Star break. I don't think the swing puts that much pressure on the elbow. I worry more about Bryce unleashing a 300 foot throw in the outfield. No matter how much we extend the 2B as a cutoff man he is just wired situationally to make those long throws.

[zambonir]

Bryce's likely absence and lesser production (at least for the first half of the season) probably renders the whole Hoskins debate moot unless they go out and get someone who can play the OF (with a bigger bat than Vierling or Marsh but better fielding than Nick or Kyle - all big asks for a modestly priced player). Otherwise, they sign a SS, Hall and Hoskins share 1B/DH, and you see where you are in July.

I forget if it was Law or Bowden but someone on the The Athletic said a lot of people inside the Phillies see Sosa as an everyday SS. They doubted the bat would be there, and I reckon that is true so long as Bohm and Stott aren't proven offensive weapons either, but in theory you could stand pat with the middle IF and go all-in on an OF who could replace Harper in RF initially and then Schwarber in LF after Hoskins leaves. But there just aren't that many of them.

[fish]

. I just don't think De La Cruz is ready.

That is probably true- he struck out in nearly half his AZL at bats. but his OPS was .884 and he has some of the best potential in the system and is age appropriate at the upper levels of the system. Potential-wise I like him better than Ethan Wilson at this point.

Someone is going to take him and see if he takes another step forward after the big one he took this year. Befuddling why they wouldn't protect him.

[andyb]

Potential-wise I like him better than Ethan Wilson at this point.

I do too but that is more a strike on Wilson. He has probably nudged ahead of Ortiz a bit, but I don't think there is a giant gulf there. Rincones might be our best corner OF prospect now and we have not even seen him yet.

[zambonir]

Someone is going to take him and see if he takes another step forward after the big one he took this year.

But how do you take what would still have to be an even bigger step forward (after just 38 AA games) on an MLB roster? If he plays everyday he's probably going to struggle a lot and if he doesn't he's not going to get better. Like, Brandon Marsh forced his way into the big leagues halfway through 2021 by tearing up AAA and still wasn't really ready; imagine if he'd been unprotected and forced to play in MLB in 2020.

Or so I assume the Phillies are thinking.

[phillychuck]

Back about 5-10 years ago, bad teams would take guys like De La Cruz and just basically redshirt them for a year (get the ABs in winter ball, etc.), send them back to AAA the next season, and hope they would be ready a year later. I have not seen that happening as much in the last few years.

[andyb]

Hard to do with a 4 or 5 man bench. Herrera was the rare position player that could win part of a starting job. Beyond that it is easier to get away with a relief pitcher and have them be the one that throws in blowout losses if they are not ready for even medium leverage innings.

[zambonir]

Because of all the extra pitchers. But I wonder who was the last Rule 5 player to benefit from that sort of thing?

Tyler Goedell was a first-round pick (supplementary round) and our #1 Rule 5 pick in 2015. He stayed on the major league roster for all of 2016 but couldn't even stay on the 40 in 2017. Carlos Tocci was another victim.

[Austinfan]

I would have protected De La Cruz over Ortiz, both are long-shots, but at this point I have to think DLC has more upside, both in the field and at the plate.

[andyb]

Ortiz was not the choice here. He is already on the 40. He may not last the whole season on it, but the choice is independent of Ortiz and almost completely based upon De La Cruz and whether he would stick with another major league team on their major league roster for a whole season.

[Austinfan]

My point was I would have waived Ortiz and added DLC.

[Philsmania]

Back about 5-10 years ago, bad teams would take guys like De La Cruz and just basically redshirt them for a year (get the ABs in winter ball, etc.), send them back to AAA the next season, and hope they would be ready a year later. I have not seen that happening as much in the last few years.

That's how we got Dave Hollins.

My opinion of the Rule V is that the only teams it benefits are either bad teams with roster spaces to spare or uber-good teams that don't need a lot of depth and can afford to waste a roster spot on a guy at the end of the banch or bullpen. During the late-Aught/early-Teens glory years, the Phillies typically took a guy in the Rule V every year ( Holdridge, Mini-Mart).

[zambonir]

Sure, but they didn't have to make that choice (yet) either. Plenty of room on the 40 and plenty of people more fungible than Ortiz too.

Let's face it, for the most part Rule 5 just doesn't work that great. Or rather, it works fine for the guys who get put on the 40. It's meant to force teams to do that, or allow opportunities for the players they don't do it for, but those opportunies are flawed for most players.

[BostonRoss]

I don't think it's at all likely that Hoskins could be replaced by a better player without trading significant value. The free agent corner infielders/outfielders that might have as much or more value are:

• Jose Abreu - Much older and probably more expensive
• Josh Bell - Probably about the same as Hoskins
• Andrew Benintendi - Close to Hoskins offensively and better defensively than the current corner outfielders--but how much will he cost? Injured toward the end of 2022, but he's only 28.
• Adam Duvall - Was better than Hoskins in 2021 but is 34 and was hurt much of last year. He is better than our corner outfielders defensively.
• Brandon Drury - 2.6 WAR in 2022--bringing him to 2.1 for his career.
• Joey Gallo - Well, he won some Gold Gloves, but he had negative WAR this year and hasn't seen the Mendoza line since 2019.
• Yuri Gurriel - Much worse than Hoskins this season and nearly 40.
• Mitch Haniger - He'll be 32 next month and is injured more years than he's not.
• Aaron Judge - hahaha
• Jurckson Profar - Better defensively than what we've got, but not Hoskins equal at the plate. He's 30.
• Justin Turner - Was worse than Hoskins this year (thought better in the past), will be 38 next week and is mostly a DH now.

Did I miss anyone important? Andrew McCutchen, anyone?

I could see an argument for Benintendi or Duvall, but the former seems likely to be expensive and the latter is older and coming of a serious injury.