Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[andyb]

No offseason thread for the older free agents yet, but might as well start the "if Nola leaves who do we replace him with" conversation. I guess we were among a bunch of teams that scouted him. I do worry he will not hold up at his size (5'10", 170).

Phillies news and rumors 9/10: Potential Phillies offseason target Yoshinobu...

[julio]

Moved to an appropriate thread.

[bkox]

I feel like we just doomed the Phillies to go 0 for the rest of September and miss the playoffs...

But ok...

Major Free Agents:
Aaron Nola
Michael Lorenzen
Craig Kimbrel
Rhys Hoskins

Barring any major injuries or surprising trades.. it seems this winter will be all pitching and bench.

Does Harper stay at 1B? If he goes back to the OF do we have too many? Harper, Rojas, Marsh, Casty, Pache,

But that would allow a platoon of Marsh and Rojas.. but part of me feels both should be given a chance to be every day players.

If Harp does go back to the OF... do we resign Rhys?

So again.,. barring any surprises:

C- Realmuto
1B - Harper?
2B - Stott
SS- Turner
3B - Bohm
OF - Marsh, Rojas, Casty
DH - Schwarber

Bench:
Backup C- Stubbs? Marchan?
IF E Sosa
OF: Pache

1 or 2 others.. Clemens? Castro?

SP:
Wheeler
Suarez
Walker
Sanchez
?

RP
Dominguez
Alvarado
Strahm
Soto
Hoffman

McKinley Moore, Yunior Marte and Luis Ortiz are on the 40. I assume Covey and possibly Brogdon are gone. Do the Phillies resign Kimbrel?

[zambonir]

Yeah, I was hoping this thread would just die once julio made that move. Hot Stove talk in August or September is something we have done many seasons, but not any of the good ones.

Of course Nola could have his own "should we re-sign him" thread as nobody can keep themselves from bringing it up every time he pitches. Right now we should just hope he pitches better.

[Lucky_Beagle]

I agree Lock the thread for a month.....or more!

[LoneStarPhan]

There will be decisions to be made after the World Series, but a good group will be returning. Clearly, they need Nola or another starting pitcher to solidify the rotation. They will sign or trade for one or two relievers.

DD may do something we cannot predict such as a trade of someone we don't expect. He will also do the expected by signing minor league free agents and some players with major league experience to minor league contracts. They will add a few pitchers or other potential bench players as free agents or waiver claims.

But I agree, we have more baseball this season before we need to get into discussions of the off season.

[julio]

Ok, locked for the time being.

Someone remind me when it’s time to unlock this! My memory ain’t what it used to be!

In the meantime, if one of you goes off the rails, and posts something that belongs here in some other thread…I’ll probably move those posts here. So, if you don’t want this thread to grow, it’s on you all to be a little disciplined.

Edit: I’m going to leave this here for a bit, so at least most of you have a chance to see it, and then I’ll “disappear” it until it’s time.

[xogfog]

I know this is a next year thing, but I didn't want to create a new topic for it.

If the Angels are considering trading Trout, as is been intimated, and they would eat a portion of his contract, should the Phillies try to acquire him? You would have to give up quite a bit and Trout has averaged something like 83 games the last three years. I think to try to keep him healthy, you'd have to have him DH most of the time. Assuming Harper is healthy next year and could actually stay in the field without having to DH much, it might make sense.

I think you'd have to include Crawford and Rojas in the trade, maybe one of the young arms. Not sure what gets it done, especially depending on how much of the money the Angels will eat.

[zambonir]

I think we covered this in another thread already and general consensus was no, but it's really impossible to say without knowing what a realistic deal might look like in terms of both talent and money. I actually think the price won't be that high but you have to take on the money. For two top five prospects I'd want them to take back Nick. Even so I really don't think this team needs to add more aging players, let alone a third giant long contract. They need to get younger and be looking at the next competitive window.

[zambonir]

But hey, since we're doing this:

The Windup: Playoffs could boost Aaron Nola's free-agency payday; RIP Brooks...

On Sept. 2, the day before he faced the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Phillies’ Aaron Nola described his season as “inconsistent, up and down, grinding.” He then failed to complete five innings in three consecutive starts, producing an 8.56 ERA in that span.

At that point, Nola’s platform year entering free agency appeared as if it was coming apart. The veteran right-hander, though, quickly returned to form. In his last two starts, in Atlanta last Wednesday and in the Phillies’ postseason clincher over the Pirates Tuesday night, Nola allowed just three earned runs combined in 12 2/3 innings, striking out 16 and walking none.

See the Athletic article for the full story.

[julio]

A suggestion: If anyone really doesn’t want to think about the off season until our postseason run is over, you might consider muting this thread for the time being.

[Aquapong]

No on Trout. We have enough DH’s or guys that could use DH days already. His injury history is getting pretty long and he’s really expensive. Still his name will command a pretty high price for a trade.

I don’t think our team will look much different next year on the position player side.

[zambonir]

Trout’s frustration was evident when he spoke to reporters Monday, but he did not ask for a trade. Current and former Angels say he does not want one.

Rosenthal: Mike Trout, in his way, needs to demand more from Angels owner Arte...

I don’t think our team will look much different next year on the position player side.

That's certainly the most likely scenario, including Harper remaining at 1B. Rojas in CF everyday, Marsh in LF, no more Cave, probably add a RH bench bat (which could also mean trading Pache).

But if Harper wants to be back in the OF they'll have to do something (and they'll need a 1B).

[xogfog]

Well that was my point about bringing up the Trout point again, even though only a few mentioned an opinion on it, is that the Phillies will need a 1B, If Harper wants to play RF rather than 1B, then the Phillies do need to either bring back Hoskins or get another first baseman or find another RH bat. I think the DH position should be rotated among the team. I'm not suggesting the trade for Trout and make him the DH, I think you could trade for Trout and rotate the DH between Schwarber, Trout and Harper. Also, if they did trade for Trout, I would play him in LF, I would not put the strain of CF on him, so as a platoon of LF and DH, it would keep him healthier. Again, it really depends on how much money the Angels will eat to move him. I'm not worried about the years. The Phillies window to win a world Series is based offensively on Harper (30), Schwarber (30), Turner (30), Castellanos (31), Realmuto (32), so adding another 32 year old would not ruin the team. The team is built to win now, and let's all be honest this team needs to win now because in a few years some of these contracts are going to make it harder to keep winning. The Phillies now are not unlike the 80 team, they were veterans who added more veteran pieces, like a 37 year old Pete Rose, to get over the hump, but they did win a World Series, isn't that always the goal? Even the Wheeze Kids got to the World Series on the remaining fumes of great historical players, pedigree is worth something.

I really am hoping they win World Series this year and think they have an above average chance to do so. I am proposing this scenario if they don't win it this year.

[julio]

xogfog's prescription is, IMHO, a good example of how not to build a ballclub. Given our discussion of probability, it's pretty obvious that the way to win everything is to win often.

Throwing the future to the winds in the hope of "one more shot" is a fool's strategy. The reality is that in a post-season that consists of twelve teams...eleven of those teams are going to fall short. If you build for "one more shot," your odds of success are... lousy.

The Wheeze Kids? Borrow a big chunk of another team, get lucky... and get crushed in the World Series. (At a time when there was much less guantlet to survive to even get to the WS.) And then put up a stretch of about 20 years where 2/3 or more of those clubs were sub-.500.

The sensible strategy with a core that's not young is to build around them with youth, so that individual members of that core can be replaced as they decline — not to ship out your young talent in the hope of one more pass at the brass ring, followed by a decade or more of teams that are smoldering wrecks.

[zambonir]

Yeah, but he's not wrong. The Phillies have already set the course. They have 1-2 more years after this one and then probably a 1-2 year reset once JT, Schwarber and Castellanos are done (Nola and Wheeler may also be gone).

But you don't need to take on another long huge old guy contract, or give up too much in a trade, to improve the chances over the next 1-2 years. And you don't want to be saddled with more than Turner or Harper during and after the reset.

I'm fine with the Phillies still trading away some big young assets for the right player at the right time. I just don't think Mike Trout is that player. A starting pitcher (if Nola leaves) yes. A major trade deadline addition, maybe. If you want to go find a 32 year-old you can just get a free agent. And if you want make the DH rotation even more crowded again you can just bring back Rhys.

[xogfog]

Bringing back Rhys is actually my preference and after a full offseason of healing and rehabbing for both Hoskins and Harper, they should both be able to go back to 1B and RF respectively. That would mean they would have to move an OF though. Rojas looks to good right now to make him a reserve or platoon player as does Marsh.

So, they need to decide. Let Hoskins walk and keep it the way it is now, make Harper the de facto 1B from here on out with Schwarber the DH, Marsh in LF and Rojas in CF, or bring Hoskins back and move one of those outfielders for pitching.

[zambonir]

Well there is always a chance of Castellanos playing 1B. He said he'd do it this year. But if he wound up only playing 80-100 games as a platoon OF and DH that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if he went along with it. Trading him also an option (who cares about the return, just eat some salary and take something modest).

It'd be nice if Rhys came back but I still think there is probably a deal out there for him that would not be wise for the Phillies to match. That said I'm also fine with the Phillies overpaying either of the franchise lifers (and it would be a shame if Nick ends up being the reason they don't keep Rhys).

Bohm continuing to play 1B part-time is also not out of the question I reckon. But they could really use a LH 3B if so, not Sosa.

[LoneStarPhan]

The only way I see Hoskins coming back would be on a one year deal for him to prove himself recovered and back. Then he would go into free agency in a stronger position, even being a year older. Maybe he would do such a deal, maybe not. I would not offer a multi-year deal this off season.

[julio]

The only way I see Hoskins coming back would be on a one year deal for him to prove himself recovered and back. Then he would go into free agency in a stronger position, even being a year older. Maybe he would do such a deal, maybe not. I would not offer a multi-year deal this off season.

Would you extend a QO?