Phillies Better Now Than Two Weeks Ago?

[LoneStarPhan]

Gabe Kapler: Phillies are better now than when they were in first place

Is Kapler saying what he thinks is expected or does he believe this is true? Maybe the Phillies are better now than they were a few weeks ago, but losing 8 of the last 10, including several crushing defeats where they had multiple run leads, often late in the game, suggests that the team may not be as good as they seemed for most of this season.

I see a young team that exceeded my expectations into August this year. I think several young players matured and got extemely valuable experience that should make them better next season. I see the moves to bring in some veteran help with mixed feelings. So often in past seasons, I have seen money spent on veterans that didn't produce the expected results. Stilll, some veterans can be blended in with the younger players and produce a great team. Ramos sure would look good sharing the catching with Alfaro next year. They also need a solid, star level, slugger for the middle of the line up. Arrieta has provided good value and I hope he can do as well again next season. They need to stabilize the bullpen. Maybe I am being nieve, but I think they have the relief pitchers who could be a solid bullpen in 2019.

So maybe the team is better right now than they were a few weeks ago when they were in first place, although watching the play on the field over these past ten games makes that hard to imagine.

I do hope they conclude that a bullpen should be 7 pitchers, all of whom are trustworthy to pitch with the game on the line, and that the bench should be 5 players.

[zambonir]

Gabe's cheerfulness can be annoying but this is generally still the right way to be. "We're still a good team. We're not as bad as we look right now. This isn't over." etc. etc.

[Austinfan]

They are a more talented team than two weeks ago, but a lot of young players are dealing with their first "long" season.
We forget what it's like to build a winner from scratch, in 2001 they won 86 games after winning 65, 77, 75, 66 . . .
Then regressed in 2002 to 80 before winning 85-89 games a year for the next five years.

The difference is this ownership isn't cheap, and management has a longer view, the farm system is much deeper, Middleton wants to spend, and Klentak is in the 21st century instead of the 1950s. So they shouldn't spend five years wandering in the wilderness, but they may need a couple years to finish building a contender.

[andyb]

They are better offensively with Ramos and Cabrera. Worse defensively. And the two left-handed pitching additions have not helped too much. So they are really not much better. The Hamels non-acquisition may turn out to be important as the young starters are less good late in the season.

The moves have not hurt much. Kilome was the only real cost other than money. They just have not changed anything. They probably need to step back and take an honest evaluation of the the value of team defense in the offseason.

[saycheese]

I would say on paper talent wise they may look slightly better but they are certainly not playing better. The biggest mistake Klentak made was not going to get a true closer. I love Domingenz but the dude started out the year in AA. Other than that its a team that is flawed but still is worlds better than last years team. If frustrating watching them lose the way they are losing but lets think about this, I believe they are playing now much more like the team I thought they were going into this year (Although I really didn't think they were this bad defensively).

[Philsmania]

Comments like this make a manager lose the clubhouse.

[allentown]

The last two weeks of games say, for whatever reason, that they are worse. I think their stat people are wrong to discount defense as much as they do and that it has cost them games. They keep adding bats, who can't field, and need to have really hot bats to be a plus, other than PH/DH. The need for upgrade was SS and the pen.

This adding of talent, may have an anti-chemistry effect as seemed to happen with the 2009-2011 Phillies as the overall quality of the team improved from 2008, yet their post-season success became progressively less. One bad post-season is just SSS. Three years of successive decline with stronger and stronger teams might well mean something. I'm not a team-chemistry guy, but when the guys who have been winning, for whatever reason, get displaced (sometimes injury, no choice) by new guys and the age-distribution of the guys in the locker room takes a big step up, I can see the young being cowed and the youthful enthusiasm squelched.

I think AF is right that the grind of the 162-team season may be catching up with some, including the manager.

I read the Meghan Montemurro at the Athletic. Her comment: "t's apparent the team likes Kingery over Crawford at SS, which would make the former first-round pick the odd man out in this situation" to a question about how she sees the IF moving forward echoes my own view that the Phillies have nearly given up on Crawford as a starting SS. His performance at Allentown hasn't helped him at all, although we did see him hit a HR two nights ago.

[ButlerBulldog]

I read the Meghan Montemurro at the Athletic. Her comment: "t's apparent the team likes Kingery over Crawford at SS, which would make the former first-round pick the odd man out in this situation" to a question about how she sees the IF moving forward echoes my own view that the Phillies have nearly given up on Crawford as a starting SS. His performance at Allentown hasn't helped him at all, although we did see him hit a HR two nights ago.

I’ve similar feeling about Crawford, who has struggled to hit minor league pitching and doesn’t appear to have improved as he’s progressed through the Phillies’ system. While Kingery clearly isn’t ready to play every day, he’s been more effective since moving into his super-sub role and, barring something unforeseen, should probably remain in that role at the start of next season. It’s easy to malign him because he isn’t Utley, but Utley wasn’t Utley until ‘05. Kingery has struggled but has also done enough to warrant a spot on the roster moving forward.

[andyb]

Kingery has struggled but has also done enough to warrant a spot on the roster moving forward.

Kingery has a 618 OPS this year while Crawford is at 645 (651 including last year). Kingery has more speed. Defense is an open question between the two. Clearly Kingery has had more opportunities than Crawford for whatever reason. Just not sure he has been better. Healthier certainly, but not better.

[Philsmania]

As Crawford moved up the chain, it became increasingly apparent that aside from a good ability to take a walk, Crawford was going to be offensively challenged. But, he would be a defensive wiz. When he struggled with his defense this season, he pretty much became useless while Kingery passed him on the depth chart and Franco's career enjoyed a renaissance. And, with the possibility of a Machado signing out there this winter, he may soon be irrelevant. as far as they are concerned.

[ButlerBulldog]

Kingery has a 618 OPS this year while Crawford is at 645 (651 including last year). Kingery has more speed. Defense is an open question between the two. Clearly Kingery has had more opportunities than Crawford for whatever reason. Just not sure he has been better. Healthier certainly, but not better.

Where I draw a distinction between the two (beyond health) is that Kingery improved as he progressed through the minor leagues, whereas Crawford has not. While injuries have likely a played a role in Crawford’s struggles, he hasn’t shown the sort of improvement one would expect from a top prospect.

In point of fact, I’m not sure if Kingery has what it takes to be an everyday player, but I’m willing to be more patient with him than with Crawford on account of his health and versatility. The organization seems to have similar feelings. While such attitudes may not be entirely fair to Crawford, who deserves another chance to prove he can play at the Major League level, they may prevent the expenditure of time, money and resources on someone who isn’t slated to be a part of the Phillies’ future.

[andyb]

In what ways has Kingery shown improvement that Crawford has not? Where they were drafted and expectations should not matter if we are saying one has earned a roster spot and one has not. Crawford's rate of improvement has clearly stalled, but where has Kingery improved this year as well?

[EDmuch]

Where is BE grousing at all huys who gave accurately noted that Crawford’s star is getton dim tor good reasons. I have been saying for over a year that Crawfotd .

[ButlerBulldog]

In what ways has Kingery shown improvement that Crawford has not?

Crawford has never produced at the level Kingery did last season. Kingery’s numbers clearly show that he improved as he progressed through the minor leagues, while Crawford’s numbers tell a different story.

Crawford's rate of improvement has clearly stalled, but where has Kingery improved this year as well?

Kingery has shown a small degree of improvement since his playing time was reduced, as illustrated by his August numbers (.286/.323/.536), which is why I’ve advocated his use as a platoon player or super-sub. Crawford’s never had a month in which he’s provided that level of production, regardless of his role on the team. That he can’t stay healthy enough to remain on the field only further diminishes his chances of remaining a part of the ballclub’s future.

[andyb]

Crawford has never produced at the level Kingery did last season.

Yes he has. His second half numbers at LHV (898 OPS) were better than Kingery at LHV (757 OPS or 786 if you include the handful of first half ABs he had)

Then your standard for improvement on Kingery is 28 August ABs? Crawford had a 770 OPS and 425 OBP in his June ABs (all 29 of them) so you could do virtually the same thing there.

Crawford's health is a clear issue. You just can't say that Kingery has improved more than Crawford or is better than Crawford. They both have been mediocre this year.

[allentown]

In the end, it'x not how we see the two players, it's how the Phillies see them. Meghan is more plugged into the team's thinking than we are, but I think we've also seen a lot that tells us they are far higher on Kingery. Kingery got the contract. It is Kingery whom they see as the guy who can be a good defensive SS. It's Crawford who's back in AAA and not doing well there. Yes Cra.wford's health is also an issue

[ButlerBulldog]

They both have been mediocre this year.

Yes, but being mediocre at the Major League level is different than being mediocre at Triple-A. Whatever the reason for his struggles, Crawford isn’t getting it done at a level that’s much easier than the level at which Kingery is playing. Add to that the fact that Crawford can’t stay in the lineup due to injury, and it becomes more clear why the organization seems to favor Kingery over him.

[VoteForKalas]

This adding of talent, may have an anti-chemistry effect as seemed to happen with the 2009-2011 Phillies as the overall quality of the team improved from 2008, yet their post-season success became progressively less.

I think this is a key point along with the clear message to the young players "you're not good enough for a pennant race, we had to bring in vets to save us". That is the wrong message.

[ButlerBulldog]

I think this is a key point along with the clear message to the young players "you're not good enough for a pennant race, we had to bring in vets to save us". That is the wrong message.

And that message might be contributing to some of the miscues and lapses we’ve seen recently. If guys are looking over their shoulder, they’re not going to notice what’s happening right in front of them.

[zambonir]

Yup I was just saying this in the other thread.

Gelb in chat today said Crawford is viewed as a utility player around the league, but Phillies are still more hopeful. He also predicts Kingery takes over at 2B if Machado is signed. Was unsure about Franco. You can't rule out them trying Franco/Crawford at 3B for one year, especially if they see Machado moving there in future seasons.

A lot of fans want Santana gone of course but even putting aside the huge admission of error (and unsatisfying trade) that would involve the fact is he still has the third-highest OBP and WAR on the team, in what is admittedly a down year. He's not the problem, even with the complicating factor that his presence makes Hoskins less valuable.