Phillies 2023 Arizona Fall League/International Winter Leagues

[Austinfan]

Kroon and Dunn missed something like the equivalent of two seasons or so of minor league PT due to COVID and injuries - that group of players is where you're going to find surprises - and Kroon hit better at Lehigh (SSS) than at Reading.

Age matters in terms of physical maturity, but experience matters more in terms of development.

[andyb]

Kroon and Dunn missed something like the equivalent of two seasons or so of minor league PT due to COVID and injuries -

Just about everybody missed a COVID year. Castro for instance. It is just not that significant excuse since it affects almost everyone. Injuries are significant too, but those guys are old enough that they are just not going to get much better and you continue to overrate performances in an offensive environment that are probably not replicable at higher and more neutral levels.

Remember you said these guys have higher upsides than Castro who is 2-3 years younger today and already at the major league level. Put Castro in Reading and he probably has a 900+ OPS also.

[Austinfan]

Castro has 2049 minor league PA, and 627 ML PA.
Kroon 1221 PA, Dunn 1053.

[andyb]

And Kroon and Dunn likely had over 1,000 plate appearances in high level college and summer leagues that are equivalent to what Castro got in the Dominican and complex leagues over the same period. Baseball life does not begin at age 21.

It is just very rare that players improve much after age 26 or 27 and just because you can't count them on their baseball reference page does not mean that baseball experience was not being accumulated before that.

[bkox]

And Kroon and Dunn likely had over 1,000 plate appearances in high level college and summer league

According to BBREF.. Kroon only had a total of 588 plate appearances in college and summer leagues. Dunn is closer to the 1000 number with 917

Across all levels (minors, college, foreign, and summer leagues) Castro is at 2100 PA, Kroon is at 1809 and Dunn at 1970.

[andyb]

BR is not complete. Misses some college years (2020 for Kroon at Central AZ for instance) and summer ball. And high school/AAU stuff. Castro has more experience, but not to the same degree as the post implied. DSL ball is really just a good quality of HS ball. Summer AAU stuff is often as good even at age 16 and 17.

Expecting the 26 and 27 year old to get better (and not the 24-year-old) is just not how these things typically work. It is why we expect someone like Johan Rojas to get better even though he has had lots of professional plate appearances (over 2,000). Simply because he is younger.

[zambonir]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that none of Castro, Dunn or Kroon will play a significant role on next year's major league team, and maybe not ever. We're talking about the next round of Luke Williams/Nick Maton/Kody Clemens here. If Hoskins is re-signed they barely have room for an extra OF and if he isn't Castro is not the right fit as a RH bench bat. What he could do is allow you to consider trading Sosa, but then you're right back to having a redundant back-up 3B/SS in terms of being RH.

Kody Clemens is still only 27 years old himself, and probably won't get better either. Drew Ellis is too.

[phillychuck]

10 posts were merged into an existing topic: Phillies Cold (Not Hot Yet) Stove, 2023-24

[andyb]

Drew Ellis is too.

Already a free agent. I think it was the DFA of the Kerkering move.

[bkox]

how did the fall league and winter leagues turn into the hot stove? lol

[Squire]

Mediocre start for McGowan last night. Dunn and Rincones had the night off. Ricketts went 1-3. Dunn now is the OPS leader among qualifiers and Rincones is 7th

[andyb]

Australia announcement. Mostly lower tier prospects. Kendall Simmons getting some extra AB after missing a great deal of the past season. Andrick Nava is an interesting choice to send there. Probably not advanced enough to get playing time in Latin America. NPG on the roster too though doubtful he will play after his knee surgery last winter.

10/22/23 : Phillies in Australia

Note other leagues have started too. Muzziotti 1-5 in his first game down in Venezuela. A chance for him to show his second half of the season was an aberration.

Carlos De La Cruz among the MLB highlighted prospects in winter ball.
https://www.mlb.com/news/prospects-in-winter-leagues-2023-24?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[bkox]

The Phillies’ Oliver Dunn, Gabriel Rincones Jr and Andrew Baker have been named to the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game https://t.co/ri94gLbJA4

— Mitch Rupert ( @Mitch_Rupert ) November 3, 2023

[andyb]

Arizona season over. Oliver Dunn the clear star. Rincones had a nice year as well. On the pitching side Christian McGowan was decent (3.71 ERA) but most importantly got 17 more innings in. Andrew Baker also had a good season.

Australia starts on the 17th which will be the last large batch of prospects in winter ball.

11/10/23 : Fall/Winter Phillies Minor League Roundup

[andyb]

Lots of action to catch up on in winter leagues. Australia started along with Puerto Rico so we have a fair number of current minor leaguers playing now.

11/17/23 : Fall/Winter Phillies Minor League Roundup

[Austinfan]

What level is the Australian winter league these days?
Used to be pretty bad but it seems a lot more prospects come over the last few years.

[andyb]

I think it is still closer to Low A than High A. Adelaide is probably the best team in the league since they are getting so many Phillies prospects, but the other teams do not have as much. And the pitching is probably mostly Aussie native pitching which is likely not that good. Venezuela has taken a hit too. They are probably more like High A these days than AA.

As we saw with the Arizona League, if top pitching prospects are rarely allowed to play and there is no incentive for veteran pitchers to risk injury for 10-15 extra innings, the quality of play suffers in an unbalanced way (still good hitters but no pitching to challenge them).

[andyb]

Adelaide stats here. It appears Rixon Wingrove is too good for the Australian league now. 8-14, 4 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1911 OPS.

Adelaide is 7-1 and appears head and shoulders better than the rest of the league. Plus 43 run differential after 8 games. Wingrove and players like Kendall Simmons really are too advanced for the league by now.

https://adelaidegiants.com.au/stats/

[julio]

Possibly, but I’d wait to see what happens when the Giants play Canberra, before I dismiss them as “too good for the rest of the league.”

I don’t expect much from Sydney (based on recent seasons), and can’t comment on Melbourne, but the Cavalry has generally been tough.

[andyb]

Latest roundup. I wonder if the Phillies will be interested in signing Lachlan Wells who is dominating for Adelaide. LHP who got released by the Twins in 2022. Still pretty young and was good enough to get a $300K bonus as an amateur.

12/1/23 : Phillies Winter League Roundup