Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

According to today's Athletic piece the Phillies likely prefer VV, and probably Hale as well, to taking both Kintzler and Watson. Part of that is $, but also depth/length. Semantically, it's like having a tandem starter or 6th starter rather than a relief pitcher per se.

Supposedly they just aren't that impressed with Watson.I think the emergence of Alvarado as a late innings options (be it closer or lefty set-up) changed their thinking (and the math, because you're not gonna pay Watson $3 million to pitch the 6th if he's only a slightly upgrade over younger cheaper players). Watson won't be traded, if he exercises his opt-out he will either take a pay cut or have to sign another minor league deal. The Phillies won't guarantee his contract if they don't want him and he won't be on waivers.

The opt-outs have probably all already been exercised, it just takes 48 hours to find out what happens (they make the team, they leave, or they make a new deal with a later opt-out date. Or none at all).

[andyb]

The fact Nova started yesterday over one of those two was very telling.

There were some simulated games yesterday with Eflin going 3 and Howard 2. I think Howard is healthy. Just no reason to push him if the goal this season was 100-120 innings anyway. It is actually a valid question to me of whether a half dozen AAA starts would be good for Howard. Remember he did not get that last year.

Edit - And Rondon and Nova are gone.
https://twitter.com/matt_breen/status/1375135873839337485

[zambonir]

To me the surprise is more, where do these guys think they are going to go? But I suppose that's what the really bad teams might be for, and things will be in more flux than usual over the next month.

Nova probably would have been better off asking for his release the minute they signed Moore and Anderson. That's pretty much what happened to Rondon too, he had a shot before Kintzler and Watson. Of course neither of them were especially good.

[VoteForKalas]

How many chances does VV get? Haven't we learned over the last 4 seasons that he is unreliable, inconsistent and unable to turn the corner? Do they really still believe they can turn him into a good pitcher? It is baffling to me.

[zambonir]

Making him the 6th or 7th starter or 7th or 8th guy in the bullpen isn't exactly giving him a chance. He finds his way back into the rotation every year because there's no one better (most notably due to Pivetta's failings over the past two season). Hopefully that's not the case this time.

But right now the thinking seems to be that coming off of last year, with pitchers unable to provide a lot of innings, a guy who can give you five or 10 replacement level starts (or the equivalent innings in relief) is worth more than a pure reliever, which is probably true (actually was true, WAR-wise of Vince vs. Watson last year, even though Watson was plainly the better pitcher in his role). And they don't want Howard in that role, preferring to save him for when he can actually step into the rotation regularly.

And really given Watson's age and spring training stats he simply didn't win the job, assuming he is really done.

[el-pietro]

How much do you expect from a 4th or 5th starter? Hes not an ace but hes perfectly competent for a back end rotation spot. Career ERA of 4.72, career FIP of 4.33. Last season was his worst season by ERA, and only his second above 5, but his FIP was 4.16 and it was a pretty small sample of 34 innings.
He'll but up a mediocre ERA and up to somewhere from 0.5 to 2 wins. If you can get someone better sure, but the Phillies are not the Dodgers or Padres right now.

[zambonir]

Like I said I hope he's not the 5th starter because we've got two other pitchers who should be better than him (assuming Moore is the #4) but he's still an asset for now, who knows if he's even worse than Chase Anderson? It's just that we're not tired of Chase Anderson.

[andyb]

If the ball is not quite as lively this year it might actually help Velasquez more than most. He does seem to be a pitcher that pitches pretty well for 3 or 4 innings before making that one mistake. That 3rd time through the order could be less painful if the ball is not flying out of the park at the same rate.

Stepping back though, pitchers with ERAs in the mid 4s can have value and Velasquez also has the untapped upside theoretically. That is why he is worth $4 million at the moment. It is also why he is not worth more than $4 million.

[Austinfan]

Eating innings without being totally dreadful has value, however, I think a junkball pitcher with control would be more valuable than VV b/c he wouldn't run up huge pitch counts and be limited to 4-5 innings most of his starts.

[phillychuck]

Regarding VV, the 6th/7th starter won't be asked to go more than 5 innings most of the time anyway, especially because when he steps into the rotation he won't be stretched out.

Wind blowing out in Clearwater tonight?

[Lucky_Beagle]

Typical phillies bullpen game. Lol

[phillychuck]

Rojas wins it for the Phiols in the bottom of the ninth. Wins CF job outright.

[andyb]

Lousy Alvarado outing, but apparently he was hitting 102 tonight. Needs to dial it back to 99.

[LoneStarPhan]

It gives me chills to see the Phillies blow a six run lead in the ninth inning. Of course, great to come back and win after that, but still, not a good feeling. Walking ten in nine innings is something I hope we don't see often this season.

De Los Santos has had some good outings this spring, but not tonight. Of course, he was not going to make the roster and is not on the 40 man roster, so he will be in the minors this year and they can decide his future in the organization later. I suspect Kintzler may make the roster but I don't see that Watson has shown enough and surely Rondon did not. With Herrera's BA now down to .209, his chance seem to be diminishing for making the roster. He is another one who the Phillies will not lose if they do nothing but leave him on the minor league roster he is already on. It is looking now that they might not need to lose all that many players to make room on the 40 man roster and I think they want to lose as few players as possible.

[David_Criss]

How soon will we find out for sure about Kintzler, Joyce, Terreyes, Watson, Jankowski, Rondon etc. and the opt out requests/moves?

[zambonir]

Watson news just came down, he opted out (and the Phillies let him.

Rondon is already gone and I think we can assume Kintzler stays. Ditto Joyce (who also doesn't have an opt-out according to stories when he signed). Not sure any of the others are going anywhere (besides Allentown).

[zambonir]

Getting busy on Phillies front. Team announces Brandon Kintzler and Matt Joyce have made the team. Tony Watson granted release. Spencer Howard optioned to minors. OF Simon Muzziotti placed on restricted list.

— Jim Salisbury ( @JSalisburyNBCS ) March 26, 2021

Does that Muzziotti move, for whatever the reason might be, temporarily open a 40-man spot?

[Philsmania]

Disappointing about Watson but not worth getting my underwear in a twist over. I guess Romero made it. Always a smart choice to go with younger and cheaper where you can.

[Taudawg]

Matt Gelb tweeted that Simon is having Visa issues that have prevented him from reporting. Don't know how long that takes to clear up or 40 man roster implications.

[andyb]

The whole restricted list thing is new and I know Muzziotti was having visa related issues with his reporting to camp though I thought he got there this week. There is definitely a new COVID exception that does not require a 40-man move so I wonder if visa issues somewhat related to COVID (like a mandatory quarantine period) qualify here.

Sounds like the Phillies are trying to get away with only 1-2 40-man moves. Maybe they just do 2 but Herrera is on a very short leash where a longer decision would be made after the Muzziotti restricted exception expires. It does make them a little short with left-handed relief, especially since Alvarado could be deployed late.

So we have to hope JoJo Romero can get Freddie Freeman out somewhat consistently.