Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

If you chose not to infer the overall context, which was whether or not sending Kingery down could help him turn things around and be a productive member of the Phillies, and this year to boot. If Kingery follows a similar path to Franco that would be even worse for the Phillies, because it would mean he was released (and we're still paying him).

[BostonRoss]

Even if we accept a correlation between struggling young players being sent down and not having much of a career, it doesn’t imply causation. It could be that they weren’t all that good after all.

[zambonir]

Agreed. Mostly I was curious if anyone could think of a counter-example (non-pitcher). I mean, I also can't think of the last time we had a prospect who forced his way into the line-up and maintained an elite level. The World Series core all had to wait their turn (except Jimmy who who didn't have a bat for several years, same for Freddy, always). Vic got his extra year in AAA and Herrera had two years at AA before we took him. I guess the answer is Rhys, and hopefully now Bohm, but their ceilings still remain unknown.

[zambonir]

Meanwhile, I missed this. I guess we aren't really even thinking about him in the rotation at this point, and Vince probably isn't going anywhere either.

Spencer Howard was scratched today with back spasms, Joe Girardi said. Was scheduled to pitch two innings vs the Yankees.

— Matt Breen ( @matt_breen ) March 15, 2021

[BostonRoss]

I also can't think of the last time we had a prospect who forced his way into the line-up and maintained an elite level.

Rolen? That’s a long time ago!

Much of the problem is a lack of good prospects over a long period. It’s not unique to the Phillies to have a highly rated prospect like Domonic Brown fail, but it would be nice to get the occasional Acuna or Soto.

[David_Criss]

Harper finally starting in right field today. And drumroll.......Mickey Moniak is starting in center field.

[andyb]

Mostly I was curious if anyone could think of a counter-example (non-pitcher).

It is true that most of the time when a struggling young major leaguer gets demoted "to play every day" it also means that they are probably not as good as advertised. I am trying to remember the exact circumstances other than playing Bell and Polanco, but Chase Utley had 152 plate appearances in the majors in 2003 that had middling success (.696 OPS for a 2B) and then got sent down in 2004 to start the year. 2002 was the flawed 3B experiment year. He had played 2B all of 2003. I think working on defense was the excuse from the Phillies, but I also remember in my mind that it was a flimsy excuse to play the veteran who was not as good.

It happens more with pitchers of course (like Halladay), but it does happen with position players. Kingery was mismanaged his rookie year by not letting him finish his AAA experience. He was also up there playing SS because Crawford was hurt at times, so there were other reasons. But I also remember thinking it was crazy they were not giving Crawford a chance. Dumb management comes into these decisions (whether it was Klentak or Kapler or both being dumb).

[Taudawg]

Marlon Byrd 2003 good rookie season, sent down in 2004 when he struggled. Made it back only to be traded and have a long and pretty decent career. Phils gave up on him way too soon.

[andyb]

Maton and Sanchez to minor league camp. Chances of Chatham making the team looking pretty good at the moment.

https://twitter.com/ScottLauber/status/1371812573738364931

[Austinfan]

If a player can't handle pressure in ST, he's not going to be of much value. Especially a player old enough not to be able to use inexperience as an excuse. Herrera was always a long shot, and Quinn still has that long power swing that's going to destroy his career - how can a kid with his speed be thinking HR, he should be mono-focused on OBP.

Moniak, Kingery and Haseley will be the CF this year, maybe not until June but they are the most talented. Moniak seems to have rediscovered his swing, but with 20 lbs of muscle added. Haseley was stronger this spring, which was his biggest need. Kingery? Think they have to be patient, and help him recover his sweet, short stroke that he had before last season.

[andyb]

Quinn's issue is not his occasional power approach. It is his strike zone judgement. Kingery is the one who got too power happy. Not that strike zone judgement is great for him either. Haseley, on the other hand, needs to be more aggressive and change his approach.

They all have flaws. Moniak is not ready. Herrera is a question mark that is not head and shoulders better than the competition. The result is likely a platoon and just hoping to scratch out 1-2 WAR at the position until the best player emerges. Or a trade is made at the deadline.

[allentown]

Last is probably Ruiz.

[andyb]

Nola gets to hit today as we are in the last 2 weeks. Fewer ABs for CF candidates unfortunately though assume they will pinch hit for the pitcher's spot after Nola's first AB.

[bkeich]

Nola gets to hit today

That is always a disaster. He is one of the worst hitting pitchers I have seen in a long time. Obviously not what he is paid for, but he is one of the guys who really has to be hoping for the DH.

It is hard to have a 0.233 Career OPS. You almost trip and fall into better hitting stats.

[Philsmania]

With our luck, Nola will break a finger on a bunt attempt.

[andyb]

In Spring weirdness from the box it looks like Nola got pulled in the 3rd inning because he threw too many pitches. But then came back out to hit and strike out in the next inning. I wonder if they send him back out to the mound next inning. This has happened occasionally.

And Nola does come out for the next inning. Gives up another run on a couple of hits and is out again. Not sure I like the wisdom of sending him back out after they pulled him. If he needed pitches they could have done it in the bullpen.

[zambonir]

I would put Ruiz in that same category as Utley (slowed for the reason andyb mentions) and Howard: neither young (the oldest of any of them, I believe) nor ahead of schedule. And still a late bloomer with the bat. He didn't so much force his way into the majors as force the Phillies to recognize he could be the starter, and even that required a bit of help from Barajas (with Coste also on the team then).

But how easily we forget - another answer, for all his ups and downs (both perceived and real) is Burrell, who merely developed exactly as you'd want and and expect a high college draft pick to develop, if not to All-Star level. Which is also probably Hoskins' fate (w/o the draft status).

[BostonRoss]

Ruiz is an interesting case. He was called up a couple of times in 2006 when Lieberthal got hurt. He was up to stay in 2007, and I would say he convinced Charlie that he was better than Barajas and became the starter. As you say, he really didn't start hitting until a couple of years later, but being an excellent defensive great catcher on an offensive juggernaut, he was good enough to stick.

Yeah, Burrell is a more recent example than Rolen.

[zambonir]

It's hard to remember, did he truly beat out Barajas or did Barajas get himself benched because of the failure to block the plate and becoming a fan not-favorite? Either way, Rod definitely failed as much as Chooch succeeded that year Chooch didn't have to hit that well to top him, and he wasn't even bad (he was bad in '08, but not when it mattered!).

I'm actually surprised to see Barajas was still on the team in September of that season, was he hurt or just left off the playoff roster?

[andyb]

Kintzler with his first bad outing. Probably no effect on his chances though something to watch. Watson up next. Moniak 0-2 with 2 Ks. Probably having the high pressure start that Girardi did not think he was ready for.

And on the Blue Jays side, I'd be thinking that Vlad Jr. might just be about to have his breakout year. Turns 22 today. Does not have to worry about performing poorly at 3B. He is hitting .500. Would not be shocked if he puts up a monster 900+ OPS year this season. It is not like he regressed last year. He was a bit better than in 2019 and remember they had the dysfunction of playing the whole season on the road or in Buffalo.