Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[EastFallowfield]

Meghan Montemurro (M_Montemurro)

[andyb]

Among 2B candidates, Daniel Murphy is available. He’s the type of hitter Klentak and Kapler like, but as he’s thirty-four, I’d be interested only if he were willing to take a one- or two-year deal. My feelings about Jed Lowrie (35) are similar.

Why are you even thinking we are interested in any 2B? We have Hernandez. We have Kingery behind him. We have Crawford too. No reason to entertain older, lesser players when we have younger and better. Just because Kingery does not favor defense does not mean he wants to get in on every mediocre defensive player out there.

[nycphils]

I think it will take something like 10 yrs/$350m for Machado, and 7 yrs/$225m for Harper...and I would do both if I could at those prices. We’d still have a payroll of only ~$150m next year. Maybe because of that the Phils front load a bit to entice vs. other similar sized overall offers.

If I had to guess, we will in fact get Harper but not Machado. I’d prefer Machado of course, but I’d do it. YMMV.

[andyb]

As to market correction part of that was teams staying under the cap. That cap rises $9 million to $206 million in 2019 then smaller $2 million bumps in 2020 and 2021.

Given the way the owners have acted I can't imagine there not being more like a $225 million cap in 2022 followed by increases that track with revenue increases (at least 5% a year). I would not be shocked that in 10 years the luxury tax line is pushing $300 million. While local TV revenues are no longer skyrocketing, other pieces of baseball's revenue pie are doing just fine.

Wait till baseball gets its official gaming partner like the NBA just did. Today's $30 million salary will be $45 million in 10 years.

[ButlerBulldog]

Why are you even thinking we are interested in any 2B? We have Hernandez. We have Kingery behind him. We have Crawford too. No reason to entertain older, lesser players when we have younger and better.

I’m not convinced Hernandez is the long-term answer at 2B. Kingery might be, but he’s not yet good enough to play everyday. I’d actually like to see the two of them platoon. My suggestions of Murphy and/or Lowrie were more me thinking out loud than actually advocating their acquisition (though Murphy might be a good bench bat if Bour isn’t retained).

Just because Kingery does not favor defense does not mean he wants to get in on every mediocre defensive player out there.

Not really sure what this means unless you meant to say “Klentak” instead of “Kingery.”

[andyb]

Yes Klentak not Kingery. But again why would you take a chance on a Murphy being able to get out of his wheelchair one more year instead of a 2 more years of Cesar at a combined $20 million. Cesar is better than the Murphy of today and Murphy is not getting younger.

I am not counting on Kingery yet, even though I do think it is 50-50 he'll be better than Cesar in a year or two. I see Murphy a lot down here in DC. He still knows what he is doing at the plate, but he has no range in the field. Much less than Cabrera who is also limited in range. Not sure I want either unless it would be strictly a bench role.

[allentown]

Your exactly right. It was the same dynamic that forced the Phillies to re-sign Dykstra and Daulton, when they were close to washed up. It is a problem with the Phillies fan base: lose as frequently as we have and the fans want to hang onto anyone associated with a championship for dear life. That is the real reason, not a bad GM -- a timid ownership giving in to media/vocal fans and mistakenly convincing themselves they could ride the nostalgia express and keep the old gang together too long. It was the same ownership that wouldn't let us have both Lee and Halladay when it mattered most.

[ButlerBulldog]

That is the real reason, not a bad GM -- a timid ownership giving in to media/vocal fans and mistakenly convincing themselves they could ride the nostalgia express and keep the old gang together too long.

A mistake the Phillies must never make again. As hard as watching that core deteriorate was, watching it happen amid seasons of ninety-plus losses was even worse. Once this group starts to show its age, management should cut bait and walk away.

[zambonir]

But the fans and columnists and radio hosts weren't clamoring for Howard to to sign two contract extensions 14 months apart. They may have wanted him to be Phillies4Life but that could have waited until before the 2011 season. Nobody was talking about that in April of 2010. It also wasn't about nostalgia at that point, he could play, and so could Werth and Lee. Perhaps it was an overreaction to the fan backlash for trading Lee, which made them look cheap? Then of course they went nuts bringing Lee back. Neither the owners nor the fans valued Werth quite so much.

No one move from that era was insurmountable, but they just kept piling on, especially after Howard got injured, At that point they still believed that he, Halladay and Lee could fuel the 2012 and 2013 teams, so they re-signed everyone else and also got Papelbon.

[flyers19rw]

Your numbers are probably going to be close to what its going to take in order to sign either of these guys. The term might be a bit short but the $35m per seems to be in the ball park. Then there will be the opt outs. One for sure and perhaps a couple of others as well. Players like these will want to be on contenders so if the Phillies are in it, for whatever reason, they'll opt out to leave town. CIP-ARod.

[ButlerBulldog]

But the fans and columnists and radio hosts weren't clamoring for Howard to to sign two contract extensions 14 months apart. They may have wanted him to be Phillies4Life but that could have waited until before the 2011 season. Nobody was talking about that in April of 2010. It also wasn't about nostalgia at that point, he could play, and so could Werth and Lee.

The Howard extension looks bad in retrospect because of its length. Had it run through only 2014, it would likely be perceived in a different light. No one could have known that Howard would rupture his Achillies, but someone should have realized that signing a 30-year-old power hitter to a six-year extension was a bad idea even in the absence of a major injury.

One thing I’ve been wondering about: had the Phillies decided not to bring back Howard after ‘08, would they have had a realistic shot at Teixeira? It was never discussed because the Phillies had just won the World Series, and Howard was coming off a monster season, but was Teixeira signing with the Yankees a foregone conclusion?

[EDmuch]

If i were the GM I would be looking at MM, Patrick Corbin and Zack Britton as my 3 UFA signings. I do admit, however, that I have not followed Britton very closely since he went to the Yanks. Corbin could be the hardest to sign because, from what I have read, he is the Yankees' top priority and he is a NY kid who grew up rooting for the Yankees. The rest of the pitching in the next UFA class is pretty pedestrian. In fact once Corbin, Harper and MM are removed, it is a downright dull group. Cabrera is probably the best SS after MM.

[andyb]

One thing I’ve been wondering about: had the Phillies decided not to bring back Howard after ‘08, would they have had a realistic shot at Teixeira?

He was not a free agent till after 2011. Not sure any GM would walked from Howard after 2008. He was tradeable at that point of course, but doubt we would have traded him to sign a free agent only slightly better at that point. He signed a market value 3-year deal for 2009-2011 (3 years, $54 million) that worked out pretty well even if defensive stats hurt his WAR (and in some cases I just don't believe them, especially at 1B. Howard was bad, but I am not sure it cost them -2+ WAR).

Who knows whether Amaro felt pressure to lock it up. Doing it early was just a bad move even if Howard had been healthy as he is not the type of player that ages well in a non-DH league.

[Florida_Sunshine]

In 2010, Howard had just come off 45 HR, 141 RBI, .931 OPS, in 2009.. I am not certain but I seem to recall articles in the papers about not wanting to lose Howard to free agency in 2 years. And I believe that was also right around the time that Pujols was negotiating his huge contract. Was the extension for Howard excessive to us now, yes. But, at the time the guy had just come off 45/141. What would you pay for that now?

I also recall, as CD pointed out, that Werth basically felt thrown to the curb. The money went to Howard, maybe not enough left for Werth.

[Austinfan]

The idea that sports revenue can indefinitely rise faster than nominal GDP is nonsense. The S curve flattens out at some point.

A 6.5% increase over three years is a pretty low rate.

Where are revenue increases of 5% a year going to come from?
Stadiums and TV contracts are maxed out.
TV contracts may start to shrink in the 2020s as the fan base continues to age (less attractive to advertisers).
Cities no longer care to subsidize stadiums.

[rkeden]

Rhys has now played 1 full season--162 games, spread out over 50 games last year and 112 so far this year. In 576 ABs, he has 148 hits, 104 walks, 107 runs scored, 43 home runs and 125 RBIs. That has to be one of the very best 1st seasons in BB history. In Willie Mays' first 155 games, he had 24 home runs. In Aaron's 2nd and 3 rd season of 153 games each, he had 27 and 26 home runs respectively. Mike Trout over two years of 179 games totaled 35 home runs and 99 RBIs. Aaron Judge, at a comparable age 25 and in his first full season, had 542 ABs, 52 Home runs and 114 RBIs.

Let's hope that Rhys can build on that good start with more experience and pitcher familiarity and surrounded now by better hitters.

[zambonir]

The Howard extension looks bad in retrospect because of its length. Had it run through only 2014, it would likely be perceived in a different light.

If they had just waited one more year they could have looked at things a bit more clearly, IMO. He'd have been one year older and coming off a lesser season ("only" 31 home runs after four straight years of 45+, fewer RBIs, 70 points lower OPS) and the team's disappointing playoffs. But the main thing, as noted, was the cost. To get the deal he did when he did for as long as he did it should have been cheaper. Or else, yes, shorter.

All of Amaro's moves to not bring back a player, OTOH, backfired. Ibanez was okay but he didn't really make the team better compared to Burrell's more OBP-minded approach (and it was Burrell who got another ring once he got back to the NL). Werth was never properly replaced. Trading Lee led to Oswalt and then getting Lee back. Even cutting the cord on Victorino backfired IMO though at that point they had luxury tax issues (but, they should have thought of that before they signed all those other contracts).

[phillychuck]

No Harper, thank you. Whatever price we end up paying will be an overpay, and I don't trust Harper to care about his production once he's financially optimized his talents. Machado? I'd overpay for him a bit because of fit and character. Harper? Nah...

[allentown]

The lux tax threshold can rise significantly faster than baseball revenue over the next CBA, because it rose much slower than baseball revenue during the current CBA -- in other words, the players got screwed and it's now catch-up time. The owners can either allow some catch-up or they can endure a nasty strike. I hope they raise the cap significantly, otherwise the rising Phillies will be wiped out, as the Montreal Expos were when a strike totally derailed their season.

[zambonir]

I sure don't see Harper that way. He may be a bit of a prima donna but I see a guy who is desperate to live up to his hype, desperate to win a championship and desperate to please his demanding father. That's not someone who coasts. And he's already made $50 million before the age of 25. I just don't know if he dreams of doing it with the Phillies - rather than the Cubs or Yankees - but if the Nats spurn him the revenge factor wouldn't hurt.