Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[julio]

I agree that Klentak should have an idea of what’s he’s willing to spend, and I think he should adhere to that figure during negotiations. If other teams outbid the Phillies, so be it. I’d rather not see these Phillies repeat the mistakes of their counterparts from a decade ago.

Agreed.

And of course, the most egregious mistake made last decade wasn't even a free agent signing, and wasn't in the context of any competitive pressure from other clubs. The unwise and unnecessary extension of Ryan Howard was purely a self-inflicted wound, taken without any real need at all.

[zambonir]

In its quest for clickbait, Phillies National actually left out all the good parts of Heyman's article.

https://fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-machado-maybe-harper-like-yankee

Short version: Machado likely doesn't want to stay in LA and does want to play for the Yankees (but Yankees may not need him).

The thing about the Phillies potentially signing both big FAs is an old story, someone anonymously attributed that desire to Middleton a few months ago.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I am thinking my recollection is that the press was putting pressure on ownership to keep our home grown hero and not to let him leave, to reward him for all that he did for the Phillies. Others on here would likely have better recollection.

[andyb]

The failure of the Howard contract in my mind was that there was no discount. If you do it 2 years before free agency the team deserves a discount for taking that risk. That was not done here as it was fair market value for a healthy Howard 2 years before free agency. I have no problem with Howard asking for that deal. The Phillies should not have given it to him though. There was some pressure from the press and fans, but good GMs should know when to cave and when not to.

[zambonir]

I don't think there was any pressure. He was signed through 2011 on a deal that had only just been done in 2009. They gave him that extension in April of 2010 with two full seasons still remaining.I think there was exuberance from Middleton (he wanted his f---ing trophy back and thought Ryan was still the guy to bring it to him) and sentimentality from Monty and Amaro which is why they didn't even bother to negotiate a team-favorable deal. I have no problem with them giving the guy free money, he earned it with his underpaid years, but it was bad roster/salary management.

[julio]

I am thinking my recollection is that the press was putting pressure on ownership

The press was putting pressure on ownership? The Philadelphia sports media? Certainly not the "beat writers" - they're clearly terrified of losing "access," and rarely criticize at all. That leaves talk radio - of which there wasn't but one station at the time. So...the Phillies extended Ryan Howard because of a couple of blowhard clowns on WIP?

If there's even a scintilla of truth in this argument, those front office people shouldn't ever work in baseball again. That's just ludicrous.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I hear you but see if anyone else recalls.

[Florida_Sunshine]

I think you are over reacting here a little. My recollection is that the press was saying we want to keep our home grown, don't want him to get to free agency, etc. Otherwise, if those points are not valid, the only reason I can think of is..............I don't know. This has nothing to do with access just my recollection is that there was concern that we would lose him to free agency and that we would not want to lose our home grown hero. If nobody else remembers this, I am fine with that. Not a real biggie.

[ButlerBulldog]

It is a little disingenuous to say you are fine signing him but then throw out a way below market deal.

I wasn’t aware that the market for Harper had already been established. And I don’t think my previous post was even remotely disingenuous, as I’ve been very consistent in my stance that the Phillies should not be offering players mega-deals or huge extensions. If they miss out on Harper because they’d rather save their money, I won’t lose sleep over it, as I don’t believe he’s as good as the media would have us believe. I also find the “down-year” argument to somewhat weak, as the majority of Harper’s career has looked far more like this season than his 2015 season.

Were you fine giving Santana $20 a year? He is 6 years older (hence the shorter deal) but has also never had an OPS over 868 and never hit close to 40 HRs. If you were fine with $20 million for Santana you should be fine with $30 million for Harper.

In point of fact, I was not a fan of the Santana signing, and his play has only solidified my position, as the production he has given the Phils this season is only slightly better than that which was provided by Howard and Joseph the past two seasons. The team would have been fine with Hoskins at first base and a better defensive player occupying the remaining corner outfield spot.

[zambonir]

as the production he has given the Phils this season is only slightly better than that which was provided by Howard and Joseph the past two seasons.

C'mon, only slightly better? he's been a little disappointing but he has a .350 OBP and will hopefully still end up close to .800 OPS. Their power may be comparable given Santana's down year but Joseph's OBP was under .300. He was an out machine.

The question is, is Santana in decline, or is he just having a down (and unlucky) year. When he's been good, he's been great (in May, June, and in home games. Plus with RISP).

Agreed moving Hoskins was less than ideal but the Phillies weren't interested in any of the serious OF options (Cain, or trading with the Marlins) at the price, and given how Altherr worked out just going internal wouldn't have worked either.

Meanwhile, did y'all know we get a 26th man on Sunday? I guess it's a little perk for both teams because of the extra travel.

[andyb]

While no market has technically been set for Harper, I imagine all 30 clubs would sign him to a 4 year deal for $20-$25 million. We all know the market and his value are considerably above that, so it is not a useful theoretical deal to throw out.

It is a perfectly legitimate argument to say you don't want to sign Harper to a 10 year/$400 million deal. There is a lot of in between though. Harper's down year might lead to a price that is a bit less than that. I have said I prefer Machado. But what if Machado does not want to come to Philly?

[ButlerBulldog]

The press was putting pressure on ownership? The Philadelphia sports media? Certainly not the "beat writers" - they're clearly terrified of losing "access," and rarely criticize at all. That leaves talk radio - of which there wasn't but one station at the time. So...the Phillies extended Ryan Howard because of a couple of blowhard clowns on WIP?

If there's even a scintilla of truth in this argument, those front office people shouldn't ever work in baseball again. That's just ludicrous.

I don’t remember there being much pressure at all. While there were certainly people who wanted to see Howard play his entire career in Philly, a lot of the fan base and media were alarmed at the length of the extension he received. I remember telling a friend that there was no way he would still be wearing a Phillies uniform in 2017, and this was before the Achillies injury. I didn’t blame the Phillies for sticking with Howard post-injury, as they had no other realistic options at 1B, but they should never have been in that position in the first place.

[California_Dreamin]

Keep this in mind if you are advocating for Harper as a FA this off season. Myself, I am ambivalent about going after Harper [not the talent, merely the hassle], not so Machado. If the Phils do have designs on Harper it may well cost them time and the possibilities of signing other players because I doubt his agent, Boras, will allow him to sign before February, almost before teams go to ST.

I understand that it worked out in the Arrieta signing [ same time frame, same agent] but in my mind Harper is an entirely different case. Boras will make this an ownership negotiation deal and will try his best to pit Phils against Yankees, Cubs against Dodgers [as well he should by the way!]

I also believe its always been in Boras's DNA to be able to tell his clients he will be out other agents and their deals so he is likely to wait and see what MM gets before even seriously negotiating on Harper.

As a West Coaster and a NL fan I admit I never studied MM that closely other than watching him hit 3 home runs in one game against the Angels last summer, but now that I get to see him a NL city near where I live I admit I am verrrrry impressed. I don't care what he is hitting, the guy is easily the best player on a very deep and talented [other than the bullpen] squad. He flat out can play 3rd or SS, just turned 26, and is friendly, humble and very talented.

I still believe he could own Philadelphia and be the kind of guy that Phillie phans almost never boo because he plays hard, is fundamentally sound and very interview positive. I think the Dodgers are becoming more impressed with him daily and reports are that while they originally viewed him as a 3 month rental they are re-assessing that view because of all his positive attributes.

If the Phils are going to go hard on these two guys, I prefer MM and its not even close.

[zambonir]

Waiting until February is by no means Boras's default. It's something he is willing to do but it depends entirely on the market and the offers. My guess is Harper stays in DC and it gets done early, personally. Unless the change in ownership control (from father to sons) or the increasing pressure on Rizzo makes the Nats decide to move on.

In any case we are pals with Boras now.

And of course Machado is very preferrable. But I think our front office knows more than we do about what would have happened if they'd traded for him (i.e. he might have still gone to the Yankees or Dodgers anyway) and what might not they haven't (i.e. they still believe he'll hit the open market).

[California_Dreamin]

In regards to FS's recollection about there being pressure on the Phils to re-up Howard, I remember they were actually talking more about Werth's impending free agency since he was on his last year. In fact, when the Howard deal was first announced, the press immediately went to Werth to ask him about the deal. He said something to the affect that perhaps they hadn't gotten around to him since they had "other priorities."

He said it in a self-effacing way but there was some surprise given that Werth was a valued middle of the order hitter on the last year of his deal whereas Howard had two years left. Then shortly thereafter it was announced that Werth had changed agent and hired Boras and many of us began to fear for the first time that he might leave...as he eventually did.

That was an interesting period in Phillies history...2008-2010 as Philadelphia seemed the center of the baseball universe and yet several things happened that likely kept the team from achieving greater heights. Gillick retired and Phils chose Amaro over Arbuckle causing the latter to leave in a huff, Phils got Halladay but foolishly dealt Lee when he was still under contract, Phils gave Howard the huge deal and let Werth walk.

All were factors in denying the Phils a Golden State Warrior like 4 year ['08-11] dynasty with multiple World Championships.

[ButlerBulldog]

It is a perfectly legitimate argument to say you don't want to sign Harper to a 10 year/$400 million deal. There is a lot of in between though. Harper's down year might lead to a price that is a bit less than that. I have said I prefer Machado. But what if Machado does not want to come to Philly?

I share your preference for Machado over Harper, as the Phillies’ needs at their middle-infield positions are much greater than their outfield needs. I still wouldn’t offer a ten-year deal, however.

If Machado doesn’t want to play Philly (rumor has it he wants to play in the Bronx), the Phils might be stuck with their current group for another season. Cabrera is a free-agent, and based on what he’s shown since the trade, I’d prefer the team let him walk, but there aren’t a lot of other options at SS.

Among 2B candidates, Daniel Murphy is available. He’s the type of hitter Klentak and Kapler like, but as he’s thirty-four, I’d be interested only if he were willing to take a one- or two-year deal. My feelings about Jed Lowrie (35) are similar.

Here’s a complete list of this winter’s free-agents. There are several big names, but there are also several high-risk players whom I would prefer the Phillies avoid.

[flyers19rw]

In all of these discussions about how much Machado, Harper and Trout will cost, lets not forget that Nola is going to be a big price item.

[Austinfan]

It is obvious from the last two years that there's been a market correction in the free agency market, with the big players constraints by the tax, you're not seeing the gross overpays, Dodgers let first Grienke, then Darvish walk, for example. Yankees are building from within.

To me, these means that some of the more outlandish projections are simply off the mark, if Machado wants $40M a year he's going to have to accept a shorter term (i.e. team will take that chance for 5 years, from 27-31, but not pay a similar rate from 32-36). Teams aren't going to pay full price for WAR unless there's close to 100% probability they'll get at least that much expected WAR.

The other factor is all sports are facing a revenue plateau - stadiums are maxed out, the Internet is siphoning off advertising revenue and cable cutting is reducing the power of bidders like ESPN to drive up TV packages.

When you bid in an auction, you don't care about the winning price, you bid what you feel the player is worth to you, and if someone thinks the player has more value, you let them win - the player may have more value or they may simply be overly optimistic - but you don't want to be the bigger fool.

[flyers19rw]

I wonder if Mike Trout will want to get out of LAA? The Angels are going to be in a rebuild and Scosia is going to be replaced. It could be that the talent drained Angels might accept the idea of trading Trout, especially if he says that he's going to leave anyway when his deal runs out.

[zambonir]

We'll see about the market correction. What happened last year was also situational (Yankees and Dodgers sitting it out, Phillies still not ready to have a Top 5 payroll). I don't think the teams are close to considering the future revenue picture, nor do we know for sure how that will all shake out. They are still spending from the last round of TV deals and just got their Disney money.

I imagine the Angels want to give things another season with the new manager and Trout and Ohtani. And the sooner you trade for him the more you have to give up. But for sure the Phillies will be interested.