Harper reminds me too much of Upton, the performance never matched the upside.
However, he does have some weird BABIP numbers, last four years: .369, .254, .356, .259, that kind of variance just isn't normal from year to year.
It looks more and more like 2015 was a complete aberration, and you have to value him on his other seasons, which makes him a 3.5 - 4.0 WAR OF. Which isn't bad, but you have to wonder about his longevity, 153 and 149 are the most games played in a season, so I'd shy away from anything longer than five years. 5yr/$150M sounds about right.
Pujols was a much better hitter than Machado, yet by 32 he fell off the cliff.
Cabrera is also a better hitter, and he started to slip at 34
Pujols - RC+ from 22-26: 172; 27-31: 166; 32-36: 118; 37 - 78, 38 - 96
6.9 WAR from 32-38
Cabrera - RC+ from 22-26: 142; 27-31: 171: 32-35: 133
9.8 WAR from 32-35
Machado - RC+ from 22-26: 125, this is his best season at 149.
So you can figure 5 good years in the 130-150 range, then 5 meh seasons in the 110-125 range
So by 32 Machado may be a decent but not great hitter, and defensively a total liability at SS and average at best at 3B
So you may be looking at 40 WAR at 3B over ten years, and 30-35 WAR at SS.
10 years at $300-350 would be my valuation, less if he insists on staying at SS.
Someone will overpay, and maybe live to regret it by 2025.
