Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[EastFallowfield]

D'backs just lost their first series of the year, and their record is only a half game better than ours.

[zambonir]

The wild card race won't be easy. But the Braves appear to be real and the Nats won't be going away either. Another argument for a lefty (be it a starter or an RP upgrade) - 16 games against those two teams in the second half.

[Lawman]

Assuming the Phils are in the WC/1st Place hunt, I would hope that a trade or two could be made to upgrade the team, if needed.

[andyb]

I don't fully buy the playoff odds because they are a very static look at a team's record and current roster. But BP has us at 49% now. Not sure I buy the Dodgers way down at 27%. I will say it is interesting that the metrics like our current roster over the Braves and the Brewers and rates its chances equal to the Cardinals.

Playoff Odds Report

Edit - Fangraphs much more pessimistic at 17.6%:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[zambonir]

Zolecki:

Hamels has a limited no-trade clause, but he cannot block a trade to Philadelphia.

Phils fans ask about the team's closer, more

That led me to this:

Jon Morosi (jonmorosi)

[Austinfan]

Question is whether by July if Hamels is our best option.
How well is he pitching v Velasquez/Eickhoff/Irvin/De Los Santos.

Because if Pivetta and Eflin don't continue to pitch well I suspect it'll be a moot question by that point (i.e. we'll be out of the race).

I think it'll come down to less LH v RH than pitching well v pitching bad.

[zambonir]

I don't believe Irvin or de Los Santos will be a consideration in July. Truth is, any one of those names you mentioned could also be traded in the right scenario (some of them more than others).

But yes, it's all moot right now. If the Phillies are a playoff team on July 31st it is possible, even likely, that their 5th starter will be pitching well and injuries won't have been a problem. But the Astros were 11 games up at the end of August and still got Verlander.

A little early to consider Eflin as essential. Before last week the Phillies made it this far with Lively, and we still haven't seen Eickhoff. It's just nice to know they're both options.

Ultimately might be a lot simpler to get a lefty reliever. If Neshek doesn't make it back or Neris struggles long-term they will probably want another arm anyway. I don't see Milner or Curtis getting Freeman and Harper out in big September games. Hopefully Morgan will, but the later in the year it gets the less likely it is we'll see pitchers not named Nola and Arrieta going three times through.

[andyb]

Fangraphs did a nice breakdown of Eflin. A little more velocity year makes him better, but he still needs to work on his secondary pitches. Whether he can improve his 3rd and 4th pitches will really be the deciding element in whether he becomes more than a 4th or 5th starter.

Pitcher Spotlight: Zach Eflin Is Throwing Harder, So What? | FanGraphs Fantasy...

And on AF's point, of course we wait till July to decide. When the main cost in picking up Hamels is money (option plus about 1/3 of $22 million) you wait till the amount is as low as possible and you know as much as you can about your own staff and whether it is healthy or performing well. That really goes without saying.

But there IS an importance about having left-handed pitching and thinking Cole Irvin (or Leibrandt) is the solution is really just wishful thinking. Both have pedestrian back-of-the-rotation stuff, nothing better. Yes there is a small chance they earn their way into the rotation, but there is a much larger chance that we need a starter and really a better left-handed option than we have in-house. It is a disadvantage to not have a left-handed starter against teams with good left-handed hitting.

[andyb]

Ultimately might be a lot simpler to get a lefty reliever. If Neshek doesn't make it back or Neris struggles long-term they will probably want another arm anyway.

Less sure about that. We actually have grown some high velocity and potentially high impact arms in the past year than we did not have previously. Garcia has stabilized his performance. Dominguez and Rios are new to the staff. Neshek and Hunter were and should be decent 7th inning type arms if healthy. Figuring out the 9th in-house should be very possible with the potential choices we have. I think it is more likely we rent a starter because our depth options there are less good.

[nycphils]

Hunter at least is hopefully more than that...lots written on him during the off-season on his effectiveness getting LH out

[zambonir]

The pen is good but with this match-up and analytics-driven front office, I suspect they are going to want two lefty arms. I know they like Hunter in that role but he is also essentially taking Neshek's spot for now.

Of course everybody wants a lefty reliever for the playoffs, and they're not gonna overpay for one. Past Phillies playoff teams didn't have to (Romero, Eyre). It's also possible Milner or even Curtis would be fine, as actual LOOGYs, whereas right now you want them to get more than one hitter.

Hamels would also make a fine 4th starter who ends up in the pen by a league championship series (hey, one can dream).

[Austinfan]

Irvin probably throws as hard as Hamels now, and is a polished college pitcher doing well in AAA.
If it came down to a tie, this team is still rebuilding, so give the opportunity to the kid.

Leibrandt's future is limited to a LOOGY role if his velocity out of the pen rises to acceptable levels for that role.

The changeup is the key pitch for both Pivetta and Eflin.
However, the problem with that breakdown is he knows nothing about Eflin.
Eflin is similar to a guy coming back from TJ surgery, he's learning how to pitch with his new legs.

Surgery on both knees, followed by workouts that supposedly added 20 lbs (and he looks bigger) explains the jump in velocity, along with being taught how to use his lower body to generate more power. The result is "effortless" velocity, he now looks like Pivetta, big strong boys who can bring it all night (100+ pitches).

But it also means he's a work in progress, mastering new mechanics AND perfecting all your secondary pitches is a tall order for one season. But the new motion, because it is smoother, should make it easier to develop better FB command. Then the struggle is integrating his other pitches into his new mechanics.

[andyb]

Irvin probably throws as hard as Hamels now,

So? You kind of lose all credibility with your opening.

Your analysis of Pivetta vs Eflin is also pretty simplistic. Pivetta has better secondary stuff. Eflin does have a little better velocity this year but his secondary stuff is still pretty mediocre. It is not 100% different learning how to pitch with healthy knees. Sometimes pitchers are what they are. Saying so and so needs to learn a good change up is the kind of advice you could give to 90% of pitchers. Pivetta has a higher ceiling of the two unless Eflin improves his secondaries (changeup included).

None of this changes the fact that we have no decent left-handed pitching and that a deal might solve that if we are still contending at the break. Waiting on a back end of the rotation guy is not a viable playoff competition strategy. Hamels might be if he continues pitching like he has the last month.

[Austinfan]

Changing your mechanics is a big deal for a young pitcher, the reason young pitchers make big jumps is
"they are what they are" doesn't apply when you're still learning how to pitch.

Having surgery on both knees, and then be able to rebuild your lower body isn't a minor tweak, it's a major sea change, similar to TJ surgery.

One of the keys to improving your secondary stuff is to develop smooth, repeatable mechanics as a base on which you then develop your secondary pitches, it makes them harder to identify, and consistency in your mechanics makes it easier to develop command.

Let's see what Hamels and Irvin are throwing in July, I'm just skeptical of how much a 34 year old Hamels has left in the tank, while a 23 year old Irvin, three years removed from TJ surgery, should have some upside left. He also has a projectable frame.

[EDmuch]

Ok, now we have the first real test of the Klentak administration. Between his suspension and his broken hand, Robinson Cano is out for at least a half of the season. If the Mariners hope to keep up with the Angels and the Houston, they can't sit and do nothing. So does Klentak trade Hernandez for the top 2 prospects in the Mariners' system or does he hold on to Hernandez as his lead off hitter in race for the NL East.

[phillychuck]

Don't trade Cesar. He's an all-star quality player.

[mdougherty12]

The Mariners have a weak system, in fact, Baseball America ranked them worst in MLB earlier this year:

Baseball America says the Mariners have ‘baseball’s worst farm system.’ So how...

[tom81]

I think there is a near zero chance that Klentak trades Hernandez now for prospects with this team looking like a possible playoff team. I think it far more likely that Klentak is looking to trade some prospects for one or more of a left handled relief pitcher, a left handed starter, or Machado.

The suspicious side of me thought that we skipped Eflin’s turn in the rotation at the last minute because we wanted Velasquez to pitch in Baltimore to showcase him for a trade. Baltimore could fill neumerous needs for us short term if we want to try to really win this year. Zack Britton would be a nice addition if healthy.

[andyb]

Depends what we could get for Cesar, though I would say the fact that Franco is playing decently and Kingery is not makes it less likely we deal Hernandez. Of course James Paxton would fill that lefty rotation need...

[xogfog]

I would trade Cesar but only for stud pitching prospects, which the Mariners don't really have, so no to trading to the Mariners, but yes to trading for the right package. As much as Ilike where the Phils are now, they are not a championship contending team, so making moves for the future are still worth doing hand in hand with making the current team better

If by the deadline a good return for Cesar appears, i'd do it. I'd also look for a parallel move to trade a young OF for a good veteran utility player or bullpen piece.