Discussion

zambonir 2018-05-11 18:41:17 UTC #322

I just figure the 40-man issue keeps Quinn (and Valentin, and even Cozens) ahead of Walding. Now that Franco is hot (and the RFs look better too) I do think Kingery should probably go down once Crawford is back. Neither of them are hitting that well so Crawford wins on defense, and he needs the same chance to get untracked that all the other strugging regulars got. You could keep Valentin up or go with Quinn. Probably the former if your intent is to get Kingery back up in a month or two.

David_Criss 2018-05-11 19:24:43 UTC #323

I hate the idea of demoting Kingery, but I love the idea of him playing everyday and playing at the same position regularly. Valentin will never be the starting 2B, SS or 3B. Kingery will be the starting 2B sometime in the not to distant future.

Austinfan 2018-05-11 19:37:43 UTC #324

It may well be the distant future, depending on how Hernandez plays this season.
He added muscle and it shows, has some real pop now.
If he finishes this year at .280/.370/.430/.800, look for an extension.

zambonir 2018-05-11 19:42:16 UTC #325

Take away the first two weeks and he's in a pretty vicious tailspin. Last 28 days, 17 starts - so still a pretty reasonable amount of playing time - .247 OBP, .497 OPS. Less power than Crawford even (and the same OBP).

I don't know that he actually would play the same position regularly in AAA, as I'm still not so sure Hernandez is going anywhere. If that's the case, they like Kingery in that Chris Taylor/Logan Forsythe/Zobrist role. But he'd play every day, and wouldn't be over-matched. It's just nice that the other players are showing well enough to potentially make the playing time more scarce.

No reason to extend Cesar though, he's controlled until 2021.

EDmuch 2018-05-11 20:01:18 UTC #326

With the way Cesar is playing, I do not see a near term future for Kingery at 2b. If anything, he may have a non-Machado future at SS and Crawford gets moved if he does not improve offensively. In a world where Machado is the Phils' SS, there could be lots of previously unimagined scenarios.

EDmuch 2018-05-11 20:15:10 UTC #327

Just thinking about it, Can you imagine the offensive juggernaut this team could be with Machado playing SS, and batting 4th? Hernandez, Hoskins, Herrera, Machado, Santana, Atherr/Williams, Franco and Alfaro !!!!!

zambonir 2018-05-11 20:28:16 UTC #328

If they really do make a run at Machado, everyone's replaceable. Even Cesar if they're so inclined. Same with Harper and the OFs (but particularly the RFs). Just depends how it all shakes out and what kind of trades they might be able to make with the extra parts.

Still a little early to proclaim that all these hitters are stars or even fixtures going forward. Santana's older, and defense matters too (which is in Altherr and Alfaro's favor but not Franco and Williams). But on top of all that Quinn and Cozens might be in the conversation next year.

bigegypt0417 2018-05-11 21:20:12 UTC #329

his numbers are almost exactly in line with his 2017 season...

Cesar remains as their biggest trade chip if and when the young guys settle in.

zambonir 2018-05-11 21:48:21 UTC #330

He remains the most tradeable player. Not sure how big a chip he is. Teams just haven't been hurting badly enough for a 2B and next year's free agent class has a few decent, not over-the-hill options.

As things currently stand he probably isn't going anywhere in-season, just because it would weaken the team, and he's not someone you would likely trade to a July seller, it would have to be a separate deal. You can use him to replenish farm system depth in the off-season (be it depth you gave up in other trades or just young depth to replace this year's lost draft picks). He probably gets you 2-3 players where Galvis only got you one (because he's better and more controllable) but I don't think he gets you much in the way of major league help. If he does finish the year with career highs, that's just as good an argument to trade him as to keep him.

Austinfan 2018-05-11 22:06:35 UTC #331

And who leads off?

Kingery is a long way from being a top of the order guy, he lacks plate discipline and hasn't shown he can consistently hit ML pitching.
Crawford hasn't shown he can hit either, Herrera maybe if he becomes more disciplined.

zambonir 2018-05-11 23:29:32 UTC #332

He said "if the young guys settle in." So yeah, Crawford maybe. But also Santana. or Herrera. Quinn? Lots of season left to see how things play out heading into next year. .

phillychuck 2018-05-12 00:50:14 UTC #333

Here's my plan for trading Cesar Hernandez:

DON'T.

LoneStarPhan 2018-05-12 02:19:16 UTC #334

There are many things that are looking good so far this season and the 22-16 record is probably better than we had a right to expect.

They are 5-2 in the last 7 days, the only losses due to blown saves/losses by Neris. I think it is time for a change in closer. Neris can be extremely effective, but he also can be erratic and if his splitter is not getting outs, he is in trouble.

The pitching has been very good so far this season, both starters and the bullpen. The Phillies also have depth that they have not had in recent years.

The question of whether or not to try to add through trade in June or July is now one that has to be seriously considered. The Phillies could be a playoff team this season. My personnel feeling is that making a deal is fine but don't overpay. They must remain focused on being a contending team in the coming several years. I think the folks in charge have the right focus and I have confidence in what they are doing.

zambonir 2018-05-12 04:06:30 UTC #335

Ever? If so do you buy into Kingery at another position or in the Zobrist role, or do you trade him instead?

Austinfan 2018-05-12 13:33:56 UTC #336

Klentak has the luxury of not doing anything.

What exactly would you trade for?
1) SP, no
2) RP, a top closer but the price would be prohibitive, plenty of depth
3) C, one who could hit? Or be patient with two kids?
4) where else? OF you have Quinn and Cozens at Lehigh and Altherr is turning it around and Williams has promise. IF Kingery is your extra guy once Crawford returns.

Better off auditioning your own players (Rios, Seranthony in the pen), Kingery and Quinn, etc.).
There are so few catchers who can hit that trading for one is unlikely.

phillychuck 2018-05-12 14:05:16 UTC #337

I want Kingery to be good, and I'd prefer a Zobrist-type role. But right now Cesar is one of the best lead-off hitters in MLB. It would hurt our offense significantly if he were to be traded.

In modern MLB a super-sub is a valuable player; if Kingery ever reaches his potential he could be an all-star like Zobrist.

tom81 2018-05-12 14:10:40 UTC #338

I don't think Klentak has the luxury of not doing anything if he wants to win this year. If this is just a development year he can wait. This is a winnable division and I think it sends the the proper message if we make a move to try to win this year. We have an "Ace", a near "Ace", and the possibility of capturing lightning in a bottle with Eflin, or Pivetta, maybe even Valasquez. We might have the best starting pitching in the division, a decent bullpen, and a team that can score runs. We also have 40 man roster issues, and extra MLB ready players with no place to play. It calls for a compression trade to deal some of that MLB ready talent to try to win this year.

If I were GM I'd really try to get Machado this year and ot worry about having him long term, make that decision in November. We need an extra bat to make this team a strong contender and I would have him as the starter and say good bye to Florimon. I'd be willing to give up Eickhoff and another lesser MLB ready player for a one year rental, maybe Valentin, Leiter, or Lively.

Austinfan 2018-05-12 14:47:18 UTC #339

Machado would be too expensive for a couple months, he's off to a great start, but let's see how he finishes, his best seasons are OPS .876 and 861, which isn't the kind of offensive boost that will put this team over the top. You're not getting him for Eickhoff and Lively.

Nor is this team ready for a compression trade, the organization is still thin in the middle (check Reading and Lehigh), and needs to maintain depth.

If this team really makes a run, it'll because a bunch of kids take a step up, and in that case, why would you mortgage the future to win now? This isn't 2010, where you're looking at a window closing and want to make one last run.

julio 2018-05-12 15:35:46 UTC #340

We have a possibility (not clear how good, but yes, a shot) at the division this season. So we're talking about trading young talent to "win now" - and inevitably, the proposed trade target is an established player who would get here on August 1st, and be gone on November 15th...and the odds are very high that the Phils would NOT win out the post-season, even if they won the division or bagged a wild card. Roll the dice, with a likelihood of success of something like 15%, lose your bet (likely), and you're behind where you were before you rolled the dice.

I would have no objection to a "compression" trade, if the Phillies were in a position where they needed a particular piece to firm up the core. But I don't (ever) want to see that trade done to bring in a rental player - and Machado, for instance, would be a rental; you can't assume that the Phils would (or could) just re-sign him long-term in November. The idea that all the Phils have to do is offer enough money, and everybody would choose to come to Philadelphia long term, is... well, it's delusional.

If the Phils trade a handful of young talent for a single player... I want that player to be 1) the best player in the deal; and 2) young enough to be controllable for several years, and not likely to decline in that time frame. I don't mind throwing money at a FA, and over-paying for that player's decline; but I don't want the Phils to spend talent that way. The organization has lots of money, and can afford to be inefficient in spending it. They do not have a reliable surplus of young talent to fritter away in that manner.

zambonir 2018-05-12 16:31:54 UTC #341

I think all these things are possible. Not necessarily this year to win this year, though if they remain in the mix when the time comes, they'll be active.

A SP who is not a pending free agent is very possible (though Marcus Stroman appears to be off the table these days).

A veteran bullpen arm seems almost inevitable though the internal situation seems pretty good there (a lot depends on Neshek, and possibly on how things play out with Neris).

Hamels would provide depth (it's still optimistic to think everyone in this group will stay both good and healthy all season) and come playoff time when you only use three-four starters and the third-time-through-the-order thing becomes ironclad, several of your starters will be relievers anyway.

I do think they could acquire another catcher even if it's just for defense. Knapp could be optioned and then you make a permanent decision in the off-season.

The OF does seem set, obviously. I don't know it's set for 2019 or 2020 but it doesn't seem like an area you'd upgrade just for this season. I would still include Williams or Quinn or Cozens in a trade, potentially (but not for a rental).

I think Machado is a special case. If you go after him you have to include the value of "recruiting" him. You are basically getting an exclusive negotiating period too.

If you've got a shot to win the division you gotta take it. A wild card race is a different story.

Of course you don't want to trade your top prospects or too much depth but top prospects rarely actually move at the deadline (Top 5, yes, Top 3 no). And as down as we are on the three first-rounders and a few other pitchers currently they'd still have some value. Look at what we got for Lee. Look at what the Yankees and Astros gave up for Gray and Verlander. None of those deals were outrageous for the buyer.