Collapse and injury are obviously strongly correlated, but not the same thing. It's certainly possible Halladay and Lee could have kept going longer if they'd stayed healthy. But the "we think he's the exception" approach rarely served the Phillies (or any team), and was, in fact, the magical thinking part. That doesn't mean it wasn't possible, just not probable, regardless of anyone's ability or work ethic. And I'd say there's a pretty good chance Roy was patched together by trainers and painkillers even when he was at his best, because to be a pitcher is to always be injured to some degree.
The same thing could happen to Arrieta or Santana, the difference is the Phillies' needs are different and so is their roster make-up, depth (even if it's not ideal) and budget. Whereas Amaro's Four Aces era was all or nothing, if your starters couldn't play (or produce) there was no money or talent available to fill the gap and adding Pence and Papelbon only made that worse. Water under the bridge like so much else but once Roy went down for the second time they should have traded Lee; instead they got nervous about Hamels' spring training injury and doubled down with Burnett (who was then himself injured all season, albeit still pitching).
I agree it's not impossible to imagine Lee pitching today even, if he'd just decided to have the surgery.
