Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[Lawman]

Phillies 19-7 in Nola's starts, 50-51 when he doesn't pitch

[zambonir]

Bour's self-diagnosis is more optimistic.

Truly terrible timing for Bour's injury

The Bour injury will hurt. Hitters, on average, miss 27 days with oblique strains, according to a study conducted by former Dodgers trainer Stan Conte.

While Bour doesn't think this oblique strain is as big a deal as the one that kept him out seven weeks last season, it seems highly unlikely he'll be ready in under three weeks. Which means he'd be looking at a return date of mid-September at the earliest.

They won a lot of games without Bour or Ramos, even with the top of the order slumping through July and August. To some extent it was always going to depend on those players getting back on track.

[ButlerBulldog]

I don't know what the most players with 20 or more home runs for the season is for the Phillies, but I don't ever remember having 7. I don't even know if they have had 5 but I'm guessing they probably have had.

They had five players with twenty or more home runs in ‘07 and ‘09.

[LoneStarPhan]

I don't know what the most players with 20 or more home runs for the season is for the Phillies, but I don't ever remember having 7. I don't even know if they have had 5 but I'm guessing they probably have had.

They had five players with twenty or more home runs in ‘07 and ‘09.

I don't know what the most players with 20 or more home runs for the season is for the Phillies, but I don't ever remember having 7. I don't even know if they have had 5 but I'm guessing they probably have had.

They had five players with twenty or more home runs in ‘07 and ‘09.

Thanks. I knew we had a number of players hitting home runs back then, but without checking, I wasn't sure if 5 actually hit the 20 mark. I do know there have been some season in my following of the Phillies when the had no player reach 20 home runs. I also recall seasons when no pitcher won 10 or more games.

[ButlerBulldog]

I do know there have been some season in my following of the Phillies when the had no player reach 20 home runs.

Yup. The ‘90, ‘94 and ‘95 seasons are the most recent of those. In point of fact, Dale Murphy hit 24 home runs in ‘90, but only 7 of those came after he was acquired by the Phillies (Von Hayes led the club with 17). Multiple players on the ‘95 team finished with 11 home runs.

[EDmuch]

As they head into next year, it seems there are two core players, Nola and Hoskins. There are also 3 more guys who look like they could be part of a core: Franco, Williams and Alfaro (although the best thing for Alfaro would be teamed up with Ramos for 2-3 years in a shared catching role). Quinn could be if he stays healthy. Herrera, as frequently discussed here, who knows? Kingery ? And from there we would head into the off season, with the FO's analytics computers whirring like crazy in the background.

[Lawman]

Nice stat:

In four starts against Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Noah Syndergaard and Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola has an 0.90 ERA in 30 innings pitched.

[Lawman]

If you ask me, I suspect that Hernandez/Kingery/Crawford will definitely be upgraded and OF will likely be upgraded.

How does this lineup look:

Herrerra
Hoskins
Harper
Santana
Machado
Ramos
Franco
Hernandez

[bkeich]

As they head into next year, it seems there are two core players, Nola and Hoskins. There are also 3 more guys who look like they could be part of a core: Franco, Williams and Alfaro (although the best thing for Alfaro would be teamed up with Ramos for 2-3 years in a shared catching role). Quinn could be if he stays healthy. Herrera, as frequently discussed here, who knows? Kingery ? And from there we would head into the off season, with the FO's analytics computers whirring like crazy in the background.

I would say Herrera is certainly part of the core, remember he has been our best player the last 2 years. He is still one of our best players, if not our best.

Franco, I dont think you are correct. He is barely an replacement level player. He has had a much, much better season (or few months really) with the bat, and if the light has finally turned on that he will never hit an 800 foot HR than he is a serviceable - solid player, but I dont think he is a guy that you can really build with. His defense is fairly bad and he has no speed at all (unless deGrom is pitching, then apparently he is Maury Wills) I hope he can continue what he has been doing, but the evidence that he will revert back is pretty strong, hopefully not.

Dominguez, Ramos and (stop laughing) Neris are going to be part of the bullpen for a long time. Pivetta and Eflin might prove themselves, they often look like they are something, but then it goes south. I think Pivetta has a pretty good shot.

I fear Quinn is also kinda a pipe dream. He has to stay off the DL for 3 months before I will even consider him a part of the future.

[EDmuch]

To me it is clear that Herrera is NOT a core player. He is a .265 BA hitter with moderate power, terrible base running instincts. The record is pretty consistent on Herrera: 2 months of amazing performance and 4 months of mediocrity. He is not a building block. Indeed, Franco shows more potential. If, and that is if, he can hit .280 with 25+ home runs that is a solid core player. And right now Franco is showing more intelligent AB's than Herrera. For whatever reason the mentla part of his game will prevent Herrera from every being more than what he is.

[andyb]

I would say Herrera is certainly part of the core, remember he has been our best player the last 2 years. He is still one of our best players, if not our best

Yep. Even if he slips a bit from the last couple of years he is still a good player. I love Quinn also, but I would be happy letting him be the perfect 4th OF unless we look up midseason next year and his play just demands a full time starting position. It is a little sad that Quinn went almost 2 full years between major league at bats when he was pretty clearly ready in 2016.

[Lawman]

The problem is that you can only upgrade in a finite amount of areas. So, pick 2-3 are where you want to upgrade and address those areas. I'd emphasize SS (Machado) and OF (Harper) before I address 3B (Franco). Upgrading the OF with a Harper will impact Herrerra, of course, but I'm not sure there's a alot of pure CFs available on the FA market clearly better then him.

Gregor Blanco (35)
Rajai Davis (38)
Craig Gentry (35)
Carlos Gomez (33)
Jon Jay (33)
Adam Jones (33)
Leonys Martin (31)
Cameron Maybin (32)
Andrew McCutchen (32)
A.J. Pollock (31)
Denard Span (35) – $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

[EDmuch]

Harper can play CF. I put him there with Williams and Hoskins. Sub Quinn into the outfield for defensive purposes later in the game.

[tom81]

It is a little sad that Quinn went almost 2 full years between major league at bats when he was pretty clearly ready in 2016.

Maybe sad for Roman but maybe not so much for the Phillies if we lost some of his cheap controlled years when we were not competitive and have more of those years when we are competitive.

[zambonir]

That's probably a very bad defensive OF. Harper has played CF but that doesn't mean he still should.

If they really get Harper Williams will probably be gone, unless they move him to left. I have a hard time believing they will really get both Machado and Harper. If not because the team wouldn't do it because both players won't.

Not that I care about 20 points of batting average but Herrera will probably end up hitting .280 this year. He does the same thing every year. That's the difference between him and Franco right now, consistency. And defense. What needs to be considered/addressed is Herrera's defensive decline. Glitch, positioning issue, concentration issue or unfixable?

Herrera/Quinn between Hoskins and Harper sure isn't bad.

I think you probably need to add a starting pitcher too if you're trying to get to the World Series next year (and keep up with the Braves though they could hit some bumps too). Even with Machado and Ramos - who now has to be considered aging/injury-prone - a team with Williams, Franco and Kingery will still be a work-in-progress. If those three guys are for real it's even easier to keep Herrera. If they're not than you start once again wishing Herrera would be more than he is. Above-average everyday CFs don't grow on trees though (let alone young ones, as the list above shows). Even with a somewhat down year Herrera's WAR is higher than Charlie Blackmon's (because of defense) and the same as Inciarte (because his bat is better).

And you do have to consider the Trout scenario.

[Austinfan]

Luis Avilán

Avilan has lost a couple MPH off his FB, I'd get him to a MRI machine and make sure he's not damaged goods.

Phillies should stay put with their young pitching, sure they've been up and down, but all three are > 2 WAR so far this season - find me another rotation with 5 starters this good! And they will have a loaded rotation in Lehigh next year as well, and maybe Reading to boot. So why overpay for a veteran when you may have better options in your own system?

Harper isn't worth an overpay, but if you can get him for say 5yr/$150M, no problem.
I don't think the Phillies have a shot at Machado, kick the tires, but don't plan on him being the solution.

I have no problem with Hoskins - Herrera - Williams - Quinn next year with Haseley starting the season at Lehigh and Moniak at Reading. Eventually, Hoskins to 1B (2020) and Haseley to RF and Williams to LF.

I think it's way to early to give up on Kingery/Crawford, though I'd keep Hernandez around another season, his value to the Phillies is greater than what he'd bring in trade.

Resign Ramos and catcher is set for a few years.

And don't write off Neris as the closer, SD as the setup man and Arano, Ramos, et al.
Neris comes down to the splitter, when it's on, he's money in the bank.
SD just needs a year or two to learn how to pitch.

I didn't expect this team to arrive until 2020, so I see no reason to make panic moves just because they're competitive a couple years early, trading Floyd and Gio for Garcia might have cost the Phillies multiple rings (domino effect, keep them and you don't have to trade for both Halladay and Lee, and maybe you trade for a better 3B, same way keeping Polanco would have made a substantial difference, not to mention Abreu, but that was a different issue).

Keep adding talent, and make TDL deals where you move guys you're not going to protect on the 40 man roster in any case.

[andyb]

Ramos probably gets something like $60 million over 3 years. And given the timing of his injury affected his last contract, he really has incentive to get a fair market deal. Posey, Martin, and Molina are all at least $20 million per year. McCann is $17 million. Ramos may not get lots of years, but his AAV should be pretty good.

[Lawman]

I think you probably need to add a starting pitcher too if you're trying to get to the World Series next year

Patrick Corbin is a FA.

[EDmuch]

AF if the Phils just stand pat as you suggest, I would blow a gasket. 20019 should be the time to recognize that there is no karmic rule that your entire team has to be players developed in your own system.

Gambling (and that is what it is) that Neris is going to be an effective closer while both Britton and Kimbrel are available is out right management incompetence. The ticket paying public has a right to assume that their money is going to be used to make the team better, not to line owenership's pockets.

In 2019 we probably need one quality LH starting pitcher. Corbin is ideal but from what I have heard, the Yankees are prepared to unload the Brinks truck to sign him. But Gio Gonzales for 2-3 years would not be a bad pickup. I would not touch Keuchel. I could see Klentak waiting out Happ and Gonzales to see which one he can sign to a better, shorter deal.

And I have no idea why you think we have no shot at Machado. Yes, Machado may want to go to New York but with two young budding superstars at shortstop and third base, the Yanks simply have do need for him. Didi Gregorius may hit 30 home runs this year, is much younger and plays better defense than Machado. The Yanks are going to go big on Corbin. And it the Yanks do not want Machado, almost everything I have read from every corner of baseball is that the Phils are ideally positioned to be his second choice.

[ButlerBulldog]

Harper isn't worth an overpay, but if you can get him for say 5yr/$150M, no problem.

Agreed. He’d be a nice addition to the Phillies’ lineup, but I don’t consider him the difference maker that Trout is.

I don't think the Phillies have a shot at Machado, kick the tires, but don't plan on him being the solution.

They’ve a shot, but it’s probably a long shot. I would offer deal similar to that which you’ve suggested for Harper. If Machado takes it, great. If not, the Phillies should move on.

I have no problem with Hoskins - Herrera - Williams - Quinn next year with Haseley starting the season at Lehigh and Moniak at Reading. Eventually, Hoskins to 1B (2020) and Haseley to RF and Williams to LF.

Agreed, though I’d amend this slightly if Harper signs, as his joining the Phillies would likely mean the departure of either Williams or Santana (with Hoskins moving back to 1B in the latter scenario).

I think it's way to early to give up on Kingery/Crawford, though I'd keep Hernandez around another season, his value to the Phillies is greater than what he'd bring in trade.

Kingery has played much better since moving into a bench role. I’d consider platooning him with Hernandez next season, with the plan to make him the full-time starter at 2B in ‘20 if he plays well.

Resign Ramos and catcher is set for a few years.

Agreed. Ramos is a great fit for this team.

And don't write off Neris as the closer, SD as the setup man and Arano, Ramos, et al.

If Neris continues to pitch well, he should be given the opportunity to win the closer’s job in Spring Training. I’m not sure what Dominguez’s issues are, but he’s not ready to close full time at the Major League level. Middle-relief or set-up duty makes more sense until he’s able to pitch on consecutive days without incident.

Neshek is under contract through next season and has an option year for ‘20. As long he stays healthy and remains effective, I’d keep him around to mentor the younger pitchers and to serve as a middle-reliever.

I didn't expect this team to arrive until 2020, so I see no reason to make panic moves just because they're competitive a couple years early.

This is an important point that cannot be understated. The Phillies are ahead of schedule, so they don’t need to rush into anything merely for the sake of meeting of the adjusted expectations of the media and their fanbase. They should pursue realistic options in free-agency and continue developing their minor leaguers while also adding veteran pieces to supplement their core.