Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion - Part Deux

[bigegypt0417]

You people obsess on age, experience matters, after 7 ML seasons, it's not like Harper is suddenly going to figure out ML pitching.

LOL

What does he have to figure out?

This is comedy from the king of giving a player another year to get even better...cesar hernandez is one I remember the easiest. Why are you bringing Hosking in to the conversation? Is there a conversation where he replaces the other?

Spending money on star quality ML talent that is young is not overspending. It isn't in any way. A bat like harper speeds up your rebuild while also giving you a player who is still incredibly young for a free agent.

Bryce Harper is 25 and not even in his prime years...you're basing your assessment on his low year vs. his average year.

[zambonir]

It's been painful to watch, but yes, I think the team just found its level. Stopped winning the one-run games, stopped winning in spite of poor defense, stopped getting good pitching from the young starters (and Arrieta was not consistent either, Eflin picked him up in June). And then, really, stopped getting on base, with Hernandez's injury and Herrera's epic slump (he may not be a walk machine but when he hits he gets on base) playing a big role. That brief period where Williams and Franco carried the offense wasn't sustainable because they still make a lot of outs and didn't have as many baserunners to drive in.

And the combination of Cabrera never truly hitting while also being used at SS really did make the team worse. If he'd hit - and he did win a few games with his bat - maybe the tailspin would have been avoided.

Santana at 3B next year is intriguing. Wouldn't necessarily be full-time. Kingery/Crawford is also intriguing, but you have to have the bats elsewhere - and no expectation of a championship right away - in order to bring them along. If they make the defense better (along with Hoskins at 1B and new OF options) it might be worth a few wins even if they still need developing at the plate.

In the above scenario, with no Machado but with Harper, do Williams/Herrera/Quinn take care of the other two OF spots or so you need another (both for bat and glove)?

[andyb]

In the above scenario, with no Machado but with Harper, do Williams/Herrera/Quinn take care of the other two OF spots or so you need another (both for bat and glove)?

At the moment yes, those 3 OF would take the other 2 spots with Hoskins at 1B. It does not preclude trades of course. Williams and Herrera probably have some trade value. Maybe Herrera would be dealing someone at $0.90 on the dollar, but his season stats will still be decent and he does have a favorable contract still so he'd be a good gamble for another team to take. His swing looks really messed up now, like he got too caught up into hitting HRs and launch angle.

[zambonir]

I'm more asking if the team is good enough, given how light-hitting most of the IF would also be. If Herrera levels back out (and plays better defense) and Quinn can give you 3-400 ABs it is, but if neither of those things are true you need Williams to be better. Though I guess just putting him in LF helps a little.

[andyb]

I'm more asking if the team is good enough, given how light-hitting most of the IF would also be. If Herrera levels back out (and plays better defense) and Quinn can give you 3-400 ABs it is, but if neither of those things are true you need Williams to be better. Though I guess just putting him in LF helps a little.

That OF is good enough. I assume though that we add 2 major free agents this offseason. So each position is relative. If we get Machado or Corbin we are getting improvement somewhere else.

I do wonder if they deal Herrera independent of any other decision. When they started playing Quinn in CF as opposed to RF with both of them in the lineup I think it was a sign that they think Herrera has gotten worse in the OF. Remember those below average statcast running numbers for Herrera.

Statcast Sprint Speed Leaderboard

[allentown]

I'm more asking if the team is good enough, given how light-hitting most of the IF would also b

If the IF hits like it has this year, that would be a problem. Hernandez pre-injury hit well enough. Crawford and Kingery need to hit better to be anything more than MLB reserves. Given their ages, it is reasonable to expect they will do better next season. I think we've seen enough of Herrera to know that he can be good enough to be one of the OFs, especially with a Harper in the OF and Hoskins, Williams, and Quinn rounding out the OF. With some mix and match that can be a solid OF. I put Hoskins in the OF for next season, because I don't see Santana as a 3B. For me, the bottom line for next seasons offense is we need three things to happen: 1) a major FA who has a good 2019 and 2) significant improvement from at least one of Kingery/Crawford and 3) the Franco of the good months.

Btw, I think it is an open issue how much worse Herrera has gotten in the OF vs how much worse our positioning of him was this year, either to cover for Hoskins or because Fuld's gut was wrong.

[ButlerBulldog]

I do wonder if they deal Herrera independent of any other decision. When they started playing Quinn in CF as opposed to RF with both of them in the lineup I think it was a sign that they think Herrera has gotten worse in the OF. Remember those below average statcast running numbers for Herrera.

What I wonder about with Herrera is whether his defense has worsened because his skills have deteriorated or because of how he’s positioned in the outfield. I recall reading something showing that he’s playing seven feet deeper than last season, one of the reasons why he’s had trouble catching balls hit in front of him.

I’m very suspicious that Herrera’s inconsistency at the plate has been exacerbated by Kapler’s lineup shuffling. His stance and swing mechanics are heavily dependent on his timing, which has almost certainly been disrupted by his being demoted to a platoon role. While I can’t fault Kapler for wanting to get Quinn into the lineup, I can’t help but wonder if he erred in benching Herrera as opposed to Williams, who’s even worse defensively than Herrera.

[bkeich]

It is disappointing but not surprising the way this team is finishing. As has been brought up many of these guys are in their first "pressure" situation in MLB, we are at game 145 or so and many of these guys have never approached a number like that in a season (at least one that their performance is being looked at closely). The record was a bit of unusual luck (our run differential was never big, we always have been on the lucky side this year) and honestly, we have an average pitching staff and a below average offense, so 10-20 games above .500 was really a pipe dream.

We need to add at least one significant bat this offseason, even if our guys improve we need at least 1 solid hitter and at the moment all we have is some ok hitters (Hoskins, Odubel, Hernandez [when healthy]). The other 5 starters are all AT BEST average, probably below (Alfaro, Santana, Kingery/Crawford, Franco, Williams). One of these guys will get bumped to the bench for a better FA I hope.

We desperately need to add another starter. We have 2. We need at least 3. The others compete for the last 2 spots and reliever spots.

The bench (before the trade deadline) was laughably bad. I know we were trying to evaluate players, but there wasnt one guy who was a ML player after Williams won the RF job. None of Florimon, Valentin, Knapp, etc. belong in the majors until they can prove they are much better than what we saw, and they should be proving that at AAA, not in the majors.

Altherr is the enigma. I still think he is a player, but he needs to stop having good season/bad season. Well, at least next year he is due for a good season, he MUST put up a better season to even stay in contention for a ML spot.

[mdougherty12]

UZR & DRS both have Herrera as well below average defensively in 2018, after being well above average the previous 3 years. The Statcast data has him as average in 2018, though, after being above average the previous 2 years. Maybe he's had a down year, but not as bad as it seems from looking at Fangraphs or Baseball-Referencd.

[zambonir]

The bench (before the trade deadline) was laughably bad. I know we were trying to evaluate players, but there wasnt one guy who was a ML player after Williams won the RF job. None of Florimon, Valentin, Knapp, etc. belong in the majors until they can prove they are much better than what we saw, and they should be proving that at AAA, not in the majors.

Florimon or Valentin (if he develops) are both fine as a glove-first utility guy. Knapp wasn't really that bad, question is do you want your back-up catcher to be a decent hitter or a better defender? He may fall short in both categories, ultimately, but not many back-up catchers would have hit better than he did in the role.

And as you note it was also very circumstantial. The original bench of a utility guy (Florimon, who actually did hit), a back-up catcher, Williams and Kingery was good on paper, but with only four guys, one or both of those first two spots are harder to justify if they don't produce.

And then Altherr was awful and Kingery wasn't good either and Valentin had to replace both Florimon and Kingery when they replaced Crawford. But there's really no such thing as a great bench players, except for those extremely rare guys who thrive as PHs, or guys who excel in a role and nothing else.

If it's Crawford, Williams, (or Quinn), Kingery and a catcher next year that's a good bench if the starters are good (and healthy). If any of those guys are starters maybe you find a more veteran guy but we just cycled through a bunch of those.

Of course Franco might also be a bench player. And Bour is still on the Phillies next year unless they trade or non-tender him. Bautista is great from one side of the plate but awful if he plays too much. I can't imagine they want Cabrera back but his days as a starter are probably over. Would you like him better than Florimon or Valentin given he can hit but can't really field?

[gmwannabe]

Get a baseball man to run the front office. someone mentioned showalter to come in and manage. does anyone think he would come in to a situation with numbers being the most important aspect of this game. Do the yankees, red sox, cleveland, astros etc. change their lineups every day or every other day? You guys and gals will have to help me out with that one. last time i checked this GAME was played by players that are supposedly the best in the world at this. Athletes. Well maybe a lot of them, are chosen because they can play baseball. I think i saw where LSP said that he was somewhat old school and i am too. Someone that has played the game all of their lives must have shown that they can hit any pitcher (either side) or pitch and get batters out. This, and maybe i'm wrong, should not be a numbers science. let the players play the game. occasional changes should be made, but not everyday or other day. just venting, but i don't see this way being successful. let the players play and if they can't, get ones that can. I'm probably wrong on this new age of thinking but just don't see it. Terrible collapse since the new players have come in. maybe it was just inevitable.
gm

[xogfog]

In addition to Kapler over manipulating the daily lineups, as mentioned in several other threads, the pitchers have just hit the wall. Arrieta is on the downside of his career, so his issue is not innings, but Nola, Eflin, Velasquez and Pitvetta are just running on fumes now. I don't blame this on the Phillies, this is a problem in baseball everywhere, pitches just don't throw enough anymore. The Red Sox get past this with good starters, offense and a dominant closer. The Yankees have offense and elite bullpen talent. The Astros have a solid bit of everything, etc... The Phillies don't have an elite bullpen, a dominant closer, or an offense to help the average starting pitching.

[allentown]

The way the bullpen has been used is a big factor in the pitchers hitting a wall. It's a real trick to wear out an 8-man bullpen, especially when you played tricks all season to have extra relievers floating up and down from Allentown. Too many pitching changes, means too many pitchers warming up every day.

[Philsmania]

Get a baseball man to run the front office.

Andy McPhail?

Yeah, he's been pretty invisible.

[bigegypt0417]

Get a baseball man to run the front office.

Andy McPhail?

Yeah, he's been pretty invisible.

What makes you think he's invisible?

[Philsmania]

Get a baseball man to run the front office.

Andy McPhail?

Yeah, he's been pretty invisible.

What makes you think he's invisible?

You never hear from him.

[andyb]

I don't blame this on the Phillies, this is a problem in baseball everywhere, pitches just don't throw enough anymore.

Not sure that is the precise problem. I think pitchers are trained to throw harder with maximum effort for short term gain. In the long term that type of usage is harder on pitchers, however. Starters spend less time developing 3rd and 4th pitches. Relievers burn out with too many short outings.

It is hard to know if our starters hit a wall or they just have had inferior luck in the back half of the season. The defense has also become worse as the season went on. Less Crawford and Altherr. More Cabrera and other bad defensive players. Being young is probably part of it but I doubt it is all of it. Nola may just be his luck regressing to the mean a bit. He was pretty lucky with HRs in the first 4 months of the year.

[Austinfan]

The problem with the three young starters is they're still developing, all three have plus FBs, but need better movement on their 2 seamer and better command of their 4 seamer. They all have promising secondary pitches but struggle with consistency throwing them, and all need to continue to develop a better changeup. In other words, they're typical young pitchers in their 1st or 2nd full season of starting, even Nola didn't hit his stride until the end of his second season and he started with much better command - but had to master the changeup and refine his curve.

Neris looks like he's back, and SD just needs to get stronger (not to throw harder, but to throw hard with an easier, more repeatable motion) and improve his command. The bullpen is developing great depth and more arms are on the way.
This year was a weeding out process, Leiter, Lively and Thompson are gone, Morgan, Loup, Avalin and Garcia are on the bubble.

I think Crawford and Kingery can learn to hit, and Franco seemed to have figured it out before he got hurt, but he has to repeat it (see Herrera). Free agents aren't the answer if you can't get 2-3 of the young prospects to step up and solidify a number of positions, as we saw this year, all the free agents in the world can't save you if you're talent base isn't there.

Sometimes you have to get a little lucky, if Quinn could stay healthy he's a potential allstar CF, Altherr and Cozens should be a 30+ HR platoon in RF, Alfaro has all the tools but will he ever learn to lay off balls? If a few things broke right for the Phils, we'd be looking at 90 wins this season - but that's why you need to focus on the talent pipeline, things break wrong more than they break right.

[Philsmania]

Eh, Franco had a great July. Otherwise, in August, he looked like the same possibly-non-tender-worthy guy we saw from April through June and in his six September games, he looked even worse. I'm not buying the Franco renaissance meme.

[Lawman]

Me neither, but I'm not sure I'd rather upgrade elsewhere.